Production Design & Costume: Is Great Gatsby REALLY locked up?

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  • Jason Travis
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    #143546

    I looked over pages on this topic, couldn’t find any- so sorry if this was already discussed. I do remember reading DemonHog’s rich analysis on why we could be overestimating this- so I want to bring it up again.

    Currently the bulk of experts and editors and users alike, have Great Gatsby winning both Production Design and Costumes. I would like to know why this is? It’s not a very well liked film, and despite being “flashy”- what grounds does it have for being the best in show?

    We talk alot about why voters will vote for a category based on “what movie they like the most” (eg Screenplay), so why wouldn’t they utilize that same type of thinking here?

    Lincoln won Production Design last year- and most did not have it predicted (though it seemed like an up in the air category). I switched to it last minute.

    This year I don’t see Great Gatsby winning both of it’s categories. I think 12 Years a Slave is going to prevail in Production Design, and possibly even costumes (which it won the Costume Guild Honor for).

    There’s also the business of American Hustle. While many say voters don’t like 70s style gowns, they did seem very pertinent to the film and characters. And Her in Production Design- My GOD that was incredible design and compliments the film.

    Plus Great Gatsby in Production Design- only non Best Picture nominee. 

    So what are people’s takes? Great Gatsby is just going to be name checked both times? Or are we underestimating other films? 

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    Joe Burns
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    #143548

    I think it will win one of them, but possibly  not both of them. But remember that  lots of movies that aren’t considered amazing win in these categories Alice In Wonderland and Elizabeth The Golden Age,   Sweeney Todd, Marie Antoinette, The Duchess, Memoirs Of A Geisha, Anna Karenina.  I don’t think G.G needs a huge ground of support to win.  I think  it’s surer bet is Costume Design because most of those movies I mentioned won there because of how flashy and beautiful  they are, which G.G obviously is.  12 Years could win A.D though, but I’m still betting Gatsby will take it.   

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #143549

    I’ve been predicting 12 Years in Costume for weeks, and I’m sticking with it until the end. It’s worth noting that Gatsby just won both at the GoldDerby awards. It might have been influenced by its frontrunner status though.

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    DominicCobb
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    #143550

    I’m predicting Gatsby for PD and 12 Years for Costumes.

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    Jason Travis
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    #143551

    I just feel people are voting for it because of herd mentality, and not really thinking about the true outcome possibilities. Interesting to say the least.

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    Riley
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    #143552

    I have been going back and forth on these categories.  At first, I published that piece about how The Great Gatsby is vulnerable, but kept predicting it in both categories.  Then I actually took what I wrote to heart and moved over to 12 Years a Slave in production design.  Then I decided that I had been overthinking things and moved back to The Great Gatsby.

    Then it started losing costume awards, first at the guild to 12 Years a Slave and then at the Satellites to The Invisible Woman.  The thing is though, while I was thinking that The Great Gatsby would be more vulnerable in costumes than production design because the sets are so extravagant, while the costumes are essentially just nice suits, I would have thought that if there was going to be a costume upset, it would go to American Hustle instead of 12 Years a Slave‘s rags.  The production design award does not always go to the most extravagant nominee, but the costume design one almost always goes to period pieces or at least nominees with very obvious costumes.

    As it stands, I have little confidence in predicting The Great Gatsby in production design and 12 Years a Slave in costumes, whereas a week ago, I had extreme confidence in predicting The Great Gatsby for both.

    I will say that just due to the voter overlap, The Great Gatsby needs to win at least one because it won both at BAFTA.  With that in mind, costumes seems to be the more vulnerable category because it has won most of the production design precursors, whereas it has lost some costume precursors.  And from there, I would like to predict American Hustle because I feel that the academy will want to throw it a bone, but unlike most people, I am predicting Jennifer Lawrence and maybe more importantly, American Hustle has not really won any costume precursors.  The Invisible Woman winning at the Satellites does not mean much in that the Satellites do not usually match the Oscars, but when I dismiss American Hustle, it is more along the lines that maybe viewing its costumes as the best is an opinion that belongs to no one, as that opinion has not been demonstrated by any group.  The Invisible Woman is exactly the kind of film that wins this category, but I am not sure that anyone saw that film.  Having low grosses is not anything new for the costume category, but having hardly any gross at all is.  This would be the first winner in the category to have single-digit-million domestic gross in forever and it is not even close.  It has only grossed one million.  So that brings me to 12 Years a Slave, which did win the guild award (voter overlap) and is the Best Picture frontrunner (benefit of the doubt).

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    Jason Travis
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    #143553

    Nicely written DemonHog.

    Curious- did you pick Great Gatsby for Production Design/Costumes at the Goldderby awards as predictions, or because you wanted it to win?  

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    Ghost
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    #143554

    I’m predicting Gravity for PD and Gatsby for CD.

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    dude
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    #143555

    They could go with 12YAS because it’s the oldest time period or AH because it’s fun and brings back images for people who lived through the 1970s.

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    babypook
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    #143556

    Well, I’d give CD to The Grand Master and PD to Her; but since we aaaall know that’s not going to happen I’d love to see 12yrs take at least one of them, and hopefully both.

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    Riley
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    #143557

    To those who are predicting 12 Years a Slave for production design, I
    understand why it looks like it could be a winner, but when was
    the last time that something won an Oscar without a single precursor win
    from any group?  Sometimes, things only got some minor critics’ awards
    or last year, the only production design award that Lincoln won was from the Satellites, but at least it got something.  12 Years a Slave has been
    nominated by BAFTA, ADG, BFCA, Chicago, Georgia, Phoenix, San Diego, San
    Francisco, St. Louis and Washington DC, but has lost every time.  That
    should discount it.

    Curious- did you pick
    Great Gatsby for Production Design/Costumes at the Goldderby awards as
    predictions, or because you wanted it to win?

    Because I wanted it
    to win of course!  Voting for the Oscar frontrunners is no way to play the
    Gold Derby Awards, although I wonder if some do that.  I got lucky with
    those two categories, as most of my personal picks do not match up with the
    (frontrunners for the) Oscars.  Costume design I do not actually feel
    too strongly about in terms of personal preference, but The Great Gatsby
    was probably the best time that I had watching a movie all year,
    so it wins by default for me in a tight race, especially since it has
    been underrated overall in my opinion.

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    Jason Travis
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    #143558

    @Demondog: Nice. I was just intrigued how people voted- 

    This is the first year in a while I am interested in the outcome for ALL categories- including the short films. 

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    blueprint
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    #143559

    There is something odd about Gatsby being a supposed lock in those two
    categories, but afterall the Academy loves to award opulent, extravagant
    and pretty films, and Gatsby simply fits that description the best of all the nominees.

    Production
    Design is the safer category, due to its competition. Her’s near future
    setting is definitely too subtle, outer space does not correspond to
    what memebers vote for in this category, and AH depicts a period that is
    not that long ago and while its costumes might be loud and extravagant
    its sets mostly are not. 12 Years comes closest to the time period of
    last year’s winner Lincoln, but Lincoln depicts a different world so to
    speak. While you have scenes inside the plantation owners’ houses in 12
    Years, they seem simple and modest in comparison to the opulent White
    House and offices depicted in Lincoln (also Lincoln was beautifully lit.
    Although I’m not sure if this is attributed to PD or cinematography).
    And that leaves us with Gatsby which is loud, extravangant and visually
    appealing to the highest degree.

    Gatsby is indeed more vulnerable
    in Costume Design, but it is the likeliest to win nonetheless. It is
    the loudest and most colorful among the nominees, closely followed by
    AH. But again, I think AH is hurt by its relatively recent time period.
    The Invisible Women has the big gowns and The Grandmaster the “exotic”
    costumes, which both have won in this category, the former of course a
    lot more often, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they won. But I think
    they get overshadowed by Gatsby’s loudness. 12 Years has big 19th
    century gowns too, but they are not as central and obvious as in The
    Invisible Woman, and much like Lincoln did not win for Sally Field’s
    gowns, 12 Years won’t win for Sarah Paulson’s. Voters rather go with the
    bright, beautiful, extravagant costumes as Anna Karenina’s, and this
    year that nominee is The Great Gatsby.

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    Junk
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    #143560

    I think 12 Years will spoil here. Like the reasoning with Argo last year that a presumptive BP winner needs at least one or two more wins, which turned out to be true on Oscar night, 12 Years defectors as well as supporters will give this category a free pass for 12 Years, and 4 wins sounds about right. I’d personally give my vote to Her, one of the best in years imo. Never have I been so engrossed and interested to look at the sets and the background of a movie

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    Denton Davidson
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    #143561

    I’m sticking with “Gatsby” in Production Design.  I think it has to win at least one of these awards and this is the better bet.  “12 Years” won the Costume guild award and I think it has a real chance for the Oscar.  It’s a place to award the frontrunner.  Also, “12 Years” was more than just rags, there were also ball gowns and other more extravagant clothing worn by Sarah Paulson in the film.  But again, like many categories, this isn’t a lock for anyone.  It’s a tough year.

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