In our latest video clash, Pete Hammond asserts that “The Big Short” or “Spotlight” can beat “The Revenant” for Best Picture – CLICK HERE TO SEE:
We goose and slap each other more than usual. The video is short (18 minutes) and lotsa FUN —
That “Boyhood was everyone’s number one movie but got burned by preferential ballot” theory should stop. There is no excuse for Linklater losing Directing to Inarritu, if that was the case. And everyone was talking about his passion and commitment to the film spanning 12 years and was seeing it as a bigger directioral achievement than Birdman, anyways. That very well could have been his consolation prize had they liked the movie enough.
BP is wide open. I am taking Hammonds advice and following the guilds, just hope I picked the right one to follow!
Very sensible chat that hit the big issues. You guys even discussed the BAFTA upset in sound!
I really try to just go by instinct and go with patterns that make sense to me rather then go by the preferential ballot- not that it doesn’t make sense to me, but I think the experts get carried away in trying to figure out the Oscar race by trying to sort out all the preferntial ballot stuff. There are honestly a lot of other factors that point to the winner then the preferential ballot as well as some of the stats people bring up. Not that the experts aren’t aware of this, but I think they give too much weight to it instead of just looking at the dynamics of the race which are better barometers IMO.
I tend to lean toward Tom’s side on Best Picture, but it does remain plausible, albeit mildly so, that “Big Short” or especially “Spotlight” can come back.
I’d wager that without the preferential ballot all the Best Picture winners so far would have been exactly the same. This year it might make a difference, but my reasoning and instinct is leaning overwhelmingly towards The Revenant in any case. What hasn’t been mentioned much is that The Revenant managed to win BAFTA with only 8 nominations, one less than Carol and Bridge of Spies!!