Let’s assume both Joy and Spotlight live up to their buzz and are headed towards multiple Oscar nominations. They both have one thing in common there films that have large ensembles driven by the characters. Spotlight wisely putting all of their actors in supporting could pull a “Modern Family” and dominate the supporting actor category. Currently, it’s predicted to land two spots with Ruffalo and Keaton getting nods and the latter expected to win but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that another male actor could go along for the ride. More likely is McAdams having her own comeback slips into Supporting Actress. Giving Spotlight a possible total of between 2-4 nominations. Then there’s Joy directed my Russel who’s last two films surprised with 4 acting nods each. Everyone knows short of a disaster or bomb Lawrence will get into lead. Cooper surprised and surprised again so counting him out of supporting would be foolish. Also foolish, underestimating Deniro who probably came close for Playbook or Madsen in supporting Actress. Giving it also between 2-4 nominations but which is the more likely to be the favorite of the Acting branch of the Academy? If either of these films are thinking the Sag Ensemble Award is in the bag they are sadly mistaken. Watch out for the much loved cast of the Martian who will sneak off with this prize!
I see both doing well in terms of nominations. I think Spotlight will have more, I have it getting 3 acting nominations (Keaton, Ruffalo and McAdams), and Joy getting 2 (Lawrence and De Niro). Spotlight seems like one of those films that needs to do well at precursors, and it will be helped by SAG, where it’ll likely lead the nominations, and is the favourite to win Best Ensemble. I can see Joy getting in without precursor support, De Niro looks a likely candidate to get in nowhere except at the Oscars, like Laura Dern did last year.
Joy since Spotlight is running everyone except McAdams in one category. And that category is highly competitive.
I don’t see more than two for each. Keaton and Ruffalo for Spotlight (I’m only predicting Ruffalo for now) and Lawrence and Rossellini for Joy (I’m only predicting Lawrence right now).