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  • MrScreenAddict
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    Feb 3rd, 2016
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    #1202463145

    I can’t believe how up-in-the-air both Supporting categories are so close to the Oscar nominations announcement. There are only 2-3 “locks” in each category and then like 5 serious contenders competing for the remaining 2-3 slots. Here’s what I’m predicting right now:

    SUPP ACTOR
    Dafoe
    Hammer
    Jenkins
    Plummer
    Rockwell

    I just don’t see the Academy going for a dual nomination from one film in the Supporting Actor category given the intense competition, and how that hasn’t happened since Bugsy in 1991. Rockwell has more buzz from 3B, so I think Harrelson misses out. Plummer seems safe now. Hammer has a better chance than Stuhlbarg for CMBYN because of his BFCA/HFPA noms. Jenkins showed weakness with BAFTA, but I think he still gets in.

    SUPP ACTRESS
    Chau
    Hunter
    Janney
    Metcalf
    Spencer

    I think pundits are overestimating Blige, Netflix bias will prevent her from getting in. Surges for Manville and Scott Thomas are too late, I don’t think they’ll be able to crack the top five. HFPA and BAFTA ignored The Big Sick, but I think the Academy will embrace it, so Hunter’s a good bet. Chau is a big question mark due to the muted reception towards her film, but she’s hit BFCA/HFPA/SAG, so I think she’s relatively safe.

    What do you guys think?

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    Andrew D
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    #1202463219

    I think they will do double nominees for the men so i predicting

    1. Rockwell
    2. Dafoe
    3. Jenkins
    4. Hammer
    5. Harrelson
    6. Plummer
    7. Stuhlbarg
    8. Shannon

    For the females I think this year I the break with the Netflix curse and I think Mary gets in

    1. Metcalf
    2. Janney
    3. Spenser
    4. Chau
    5. Blige
    6. Hunter
    7. KST
    8. Manville

    https://www.etsy.com/shop/AndrewsArt

    Check out my Store.

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    VeraDoyle
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    #1202463256

    I don’t think that Hammer is happening , nor should he. He was average at best. And before people jump at me, I loved the film and Chalamet is my pick for the Best Actor Oscar. I just didn’t buy Hammer at all, and his performance had no depth whatsoever. I’m glad he is getting snubbed. And as strong as Stuhlbarg’s final monologue was, that performance was non-existent all through the film. This is Chalamet’s show.

    1. Janney
    2. Metcalf
    3. Spencer
    4. Blige
    5. Chau

    1. Rockwell
    2. Dafoe
    3. Plummer
    4. Jenkins
    5. Harrelson

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    MrScreenAddict
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    #1202463260

    I don’t understand how you can be a fan of the film and think so little of Hammer. The only reason the movie works (other than Chalamet’s stunning performance) is because of the chemistry between Hammer and Chalamet. I can’t even fathom nominating one of them without the other.

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    VeraDoyle
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    #1202463269

    Well thank God we are all different. I think maybe I can judge a performance individually? You talk about the duo or ensemble effect. That’s a whole different stuff.

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    Beastialg
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    Sep 15th, 2011
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    #1202463449

    I also really liked “Call me by your name” and loved Chalamet (my choice for best actor) and I’m OK with Hammer getting snubbed. He was good but didn’t find him oscar whorthy at all.

    Someone I want to see nominated is Sebastian Stan. Very surprising he is not getting any attention so far.

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    Paul Hardister
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    #1202463467

    I think Stuhlbarg might get in because of the speech at the end. He has a Critics Choice nom too plus he’s in two other contenders this year: The Post and Shape of Water. I’d love both him and Hammer get in but last year they nominated Ruth Negga and not Joel Edgerton. So sometimes they snub one member of an on-screen couple. You’re right though this season has been up in the air, which is more exciting.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202463468

    1. Rockwell
    2. Dafoe
    3. Jenkins
    4. Harrelson
    5. Shannon

    6. Plummer
    7. Stuhlbarg
    8. Hammer
    9. Stewart

    1. Metcalf
    2. Janney
    3. Spencer
    4. Hunter
    5. Manville

    6. Blige
    7. Scott Thomas
    8. Chau
    9. Haddish

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    Harmonia
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    #1202463490

    Someone I want to see nominated is Sebastian Stan. Very surprising he is not getting any attention so far.

    I felt the same way after ‘I, Tonya.’ Sebastian really impressed me with his performance. I don’t think he’ll get nominated, unfortunately, but I would love it if he came in as a surprise.

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202463491

    Someone pointed out earlier in another thread that the past 6 ceremonies have each had one nominee who missed GG, SAG, and BAFTA nominations.

    This year, it could be:
    Stuhlbarg / Shannon / Elba / Stan
    Haddish / Krieps

    Shannon was the one who got in last year without hitting the 3 precursors. I don’t know if that makes it more or less likely that he does it again this year.

    I haven’t really seen any buzz at all for Stan or Elba, but I suppose either of them (or Krieps) could coattail their way to noms if their films do better than most anticipate.

    Stuhlbarg seems to be most talked about amongst predictors, while Haddish might be the popular choice with the press.

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    Malcolm Dunbar
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    #1202463506

    Hammer and Stuhlbarg are both on the bubble, and can both be snubbed if Shape Of Water or 3 Billboards over performs at the Academy. I think Plummer is getting in, he got the Globes and BAFTA, which made him a solid contender.

    Harrelson is likely the biggest threat, with Shannon a distant threat, as I don’t think he is very high up. I think Stuhlbarg and Hammer are neck and neck at this point. They have similar critics nominations. However Hammer got nominated in a televised precursor over him for the Globe – and he was also able to get a Supporting SAG nomination for J. Edgar so in theory support could be there. On Stuhlbarg’s side he has been in three academy films that will likely be nominated – so he has the benefit of having had an amazing year.

    I would say it’s probably a four way race for the fifth slot.

    1. William Dafoe

    2. Sam Rockwell

    3. Richard Jenkins

    4. Chris Plummer

    5. Hammer/Stuhlbarg

    6. Stuhlbarg/Hammer

    7. Harrelson

    8. Shannon

    9. Stewart

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    VeraDoyle
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    #1202463636

    Harrelson has BAFTA/SAG combo in a possible BP-frontrunner film, how on earth he’s getting snubbed for Hammer and Stuhlbarg with only a BFCA-GG (Hammer) and BFCA (Stuhlbarg) mention? Critics and HFPA  members don’t vote for the Oscars, actors are.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 2 days ago by  VeraDoyle.
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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202463659

    Harrelson has BAFTA/SAG combo in a possible BP-frontrunner film, how on earth he’s getting snubbed for Hammer and Stuhlbarg with only a BFCA-GG (Hammer) and BFCA (Stuhlbarg) mention? Critics and HFPA members don’t vote for the Oscars, actors are.

    Yeah, I think that Harrelson is actually in 3rd place over Jenkins, with Plummer / Hammer / Stuhlbarg / Shannon competing for the final slot.

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    sofan
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    #1202463676

    Shannon was the one who got in last year without hitting the 3 precursors

    He did this twice actually. When he was nominated for Revolutionary Road he didn’t hit any precursors. And when he was nominated at GG and SAG for 99 Homes, he missed an Oscar nomination.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he replaces Jenkins, though I’m not predicting him.

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    sofan
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    #1202463693

    I have my super bet on Supporting Actor category and I feel pretty confident with

    • Sam Rockwell
    • Willem Dafoe
    • Woody Harrelson
    • Richard Jenkins / Christopher Plummer

    in that order.

    Rockwell and Dafoe hit all the precursors, Harrelson hit the main industry precursors with BAFTA and SAG.

    And Jenkins and Plummer each missed one.

    A case could be made for Hammer and Stuhlbarg but each of them missed a lot and CMBYN is somehow underperforming.

    If a surprise occurs it will be Shannon replacing Jenkins as I mentioned above. And in a perfect world, Sebastian Stan would be nominated over Plummer but I don’t see it happening.

     

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