THE 3 UNPREDICTABLE OSCARS

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  • Daniel Vaz
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    #90741

    What is so exciting this year is that we can hardly predict 3 of the major Oscar races: best director; best actress; best supporting actor.

    Ok, you have your favorites and you basically stick with them. But can you really have a strong opinion on these 3 races?

    You normally have doubts in technical Oscar (sound editing and sound mixing, anyone?), but I don’t remember a year like this one where we can have big surprises on 3 major oscars. Do you?

    In best director, somehow it feels that the Academy, who didn’t want to nominate Affleck, doesn’t want to give the third Oscar to Spielberg. I get this feeling the Affleck snub will cost Spielberg his third Oscar for best director. Haneke can win and even David O. Russell, if Almighty Weinstein wants it.

    In best actress, Jennifer Lawrence leads, but BAFTAs did want to recognize her and that shows something. Maybe the duel between Lawrence and Chastain is so hard, since they both appeal to the same Academy tastes, that a third contender will emerge: an old lady. This really looks like 1989 again…

    And in best supporting actor, Tommy Lee Jones is ahead, but who knows? Anyone can take it. Even Alan Arkin, who can be a surprise winner for Argo.

    So, for you are these Oscars predictables? Or you really think the sound editing or mixing are the difficult ones?

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    Laactingnyc
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    #90743

    I personally think Chastain will and should win.

    Zero Dark Thirty or Life of Pi for Best Picture?

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    JulieF
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    #90744

    Oscarcountdown, I think you have a typo.  You mean the Academy DOESN’T want to give the third Oscar to Spielberg, right?

    I believe there are fewer locked categories than usual.  I would say foreign film, actor, song, visual effects, supporting actress, and picture are the only real locks.  Maybe costumes and cinematography, though in the second case the Deakins ASC win leaves room for doubt.

    Which categories are unpredictable?  Here are mine.

    1) Director.  In Oscar pools I am picking Spielberg even though I think he won’t win.  I could see Lee or even Russell.
    2) Supporting Actor.  I have no clue about this.  I feel like any of them could win, though I switched from Jones to Waltz after BAFTA.
    3) both screenplays: Lincoln or Argo?  Zero Dark, Amour, or Django?  I’m picking the latter but could be surprised.
    4) animated—Frankenweenie, Brave, Wreck-it Ralph? 
    5) no clue about sound—I am going with the consensus

    There are so many.  I think Supporting Actor and the screenplays will be the decisive races in many Oscar pools.  I’d be willing to lose in the pools if Riva won; that would be so awesome.  I agree with a previous poster that Chastain was very good.

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    Jason Travis
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    #90745

    I think the tech awards are also up in the air-

    Sound Mixing seems like Les Miserables, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Argo takes this just to add another hardware piece to the Best Picture frontrunner.

    Original Score can go any which way- I have realized predicting John Williams recently has been a mistake, but his score for Lincoln was beautifully crafted. Life of Pi maybe, and also again- Argo; if not only to honor the film but also Alexander Desplat, who has yet to win.

    Art Direction- is it Anna Karenina in the bag, or can Life of Pi sweep it?

    Costumes- Anna Karenina seems poised as the favorite, but I wouldn’t discount Mirror Mirror; bad film but amazing costumes, and a homage to a late genius designer (who won for Bram Stoker’s Dracula).

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    seabel
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    #90746

    Not even ‘Argo’ is a lock for Best Picture, but it is the frontrunner.

    The only locks are, in my opinion, Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actress (Anne Hathaway), Song (Skyfall) and Makeup (Les Miserables).

    The rest is up in the air.

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    Daniel Vaz
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    #90747

    I personally think Chastain will and should win.

    Zero Dark Thirty or Life of Pi for Best Picture?

    Well, she should win. It’s the best performance of the year. Even better than Daniel Day-Lewis and he is my fav actor ever!

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    Daniel Vaz
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    #90748

    Oscarcountdown, I think you have a typo.  You mean the Academy DOESN’T want to give the third Oscar to Spielberg, right?

    I believe there are fewer locked categories than usual.  I would say foreign film, actor, song, visual effects, supporting actress, and picture are the only real locks.  Maybe costumes and cinematography, though in the second case the Deakins ASC win leaves room for doubt.

    Which categories are unpredictable?  Here are mine.

    1) Director.  In Oscar pools I am picking Spielberg even though I think he won’t win.  I could see Lee or even Russell.
    2) Supporting Actor.  I have no clue about this.  I feel like any of them could win, though I switched from Jones to Waltz after BAFTA.
    3) both screenplays: Lincoln or Argo?  Zero Dark, Amour, or Django?  I’m picking the latter but could be surprised.
    4) animated—Frankenweenie, Brave, Wreck-it Ralph? 
    5) no clue about sound—I am going with the consensus

    There are so many.  I think Supporting Actor and the screenplays will be the decisive races in many Oscar pools.  I’d be willing to lose in the pools if Riva won; that would be so awesome.  I agree with a previous poster that Chastain was very good.

    You are right lol I meant doesn’t!
    For me, Wreck-it Ralph is a major lock!
    I think chastain should win. But i definetely prefer to see Lawrence win than Riva.

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    Daniel Vaz
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    #90749

    I think the tech awards are also up in the air-

    Sound Mixing seems like Les Miserables, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Argo takes this just to add another hardware piece to the Best Picture frontrunner.

    Original Score can go any which way- I have realized predicting John Williams recently has been a mistake, but his score for Lincoln was beautifully crafted. Life of Pi maybe, and also again- Argo; if not only to honor the film but also Alexander Desplat, who has yet to win.

    Art Direction- is it Anna Karenina in the bag, or can Life of Pi sweep it?

    Costumes- Anna Karenina seems poised as the favorite, but I wouldn’t discount Mirror Mirror; bad film but amazing costumes, and a homage to a late genius designer (who won for Bram Stoker’s Dracula).

    In my opinion, lincoln’s soundtrack is too similar to war horse last year. I prefer Argo and Desplat is a genius. He should won for ZDT, but he wasnt nominated

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    JulieF
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    #90750

    Yes, oscarcountdown.  I wanted to help you out because the context made it clear.

    Anyone have insight about Art Direction and Makeup?  I’m stuck.  I feel like Life of Pi would be natural for Art Direction, but people seem to be picking Les Mis or Anna Karenina.

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    Daniel Vaz
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    #90751

    Yes, oscarcountdown.  I wanted to help you out because the context made it clear.

    Anyone have insight about Art Direction and Makeup?  I’m stuck.  I feel like Life of Pi would be natural for Art Direction, but people seem to be picking Les Mis or Anna Karenina.

    Thanks. For makeup, i’ll go with les miz. Art direction is always a though one… My fav? Lincoln

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