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October 25, 2015 at 8:54 am #196339
If voters only pick one sci-fi pic, which will they nominate for Best Picture: The Martian or Star Wars?
I saw this face-off discussed in some other threads, so let’s give the topic its own thread — and let’s hear from YOU.October 25, 2015 at 9:03 am #196341
Ah, that’s a tough one. I heard that The Martian had a positive response at its AMPAS screening when I was listening to Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson’s Screen Talk podcast, and it is already doing very nicely at the box office. But at the same time, when Star Wars comes out in December, voters could feel nostalgic if it brings back memories of the first. Also, director J.J. Abrams almost got Star Trek a BP nod since it was a PGA nominee. Over the years, SW has been more embraced.
But gun to my head, I would say Star Wars because it will make all the money in the world and nominating it will solve the ratings problem they’ve been having. Plus, The Martian might peak too soon if Star Wars is a massive success across the board (critically, financially, and industry-wise). I don’t see why both can’t get in but if only one were to, I’d go with Star Wars. Of course, we also have Mad Max to watch out for which has a near perfect RT rating and is getting a significant push by Warner Bros. across the board.October 25, 2015 at 9:07 am #196342
Currently I’m predicting neither but if The Force Awakens get close to Empire Strikes Back level reviews it definitely has a chance for Best Picture. I’m hearing a lot about how well-liked The Martian is by industry insiders but my gut feeling is that, when push comes to shove, it won’t do so well in nominations.October 25, 2015 at 9:12 am #196344
I’m pretty sure The Martian is getting into best picture. I think. Also thought Interstellar would get in last year though.October 25, 2015 at 9:18 am #196345
Star Wars will be huge. It’s already huge. It’s hard to imagine both The Martian and Star Wars in the BP lineup but I’d be VERY surprised if The Martian is in there and Star Wars isn’t.October 25, 2015 at 10:21 am #196346
The problem is we have a couple of Sci-Fi/Action movies in the mix. Star Wars seems in a good position because J.J Abrams is a great director, the movie is the continuation of the biggest franchise in the world, and it WILL make all the money in the world.
We have The Martian too, great reviews, Ridley Scott has been embraced before by the Academy, did great in the box office, the industry seems to really enjoy the film. It has what it needs to get the nomination.
And then there is Mad Max, the best reviewed action film of the last 20 years(?), everybody loves the film, and wants it to get in. Did better than expected at the box office, and surprised the world by how good it was and how amazing the reviews were.
But the Academy is not going to nominate the three, probably not even two of this films will get in. All of them seem like good choices, but we choose one or none.October 25, 2015 at 10:28 am #196347
Well let’s see….
A huge majority of white male voters nearing the age of Old Age Pension and/or early retirement…..and certainly not anywhere near a ‘diverse’ panel of guys…
In fairness, this age group DOES read and will read science fiction, which usually takes more than one brain cell…..eliminates at least HALF the voting body….so…
I’ll say The Martian. It’s slow and could be described as a bore, which the Academy is not biased against, and it’s doing great with the Box Office. Unless it’s the year of the woman, bad box office is anathema, usually.
They love Matt Damon, and the cast is peopled with Academy-friendly wannabes. And then, there’s Ridley Scott; connected irrespective of the quality of his work, which is and has been on a downward spiral for decades. Doesnt matter. Craft-wise, the guy knows how to excel.
Star Wars, everyone rightly expects to be huge. Does the Academy like huge box office, crowd-pleasing films (anyone seen, Luhrmann’s Strictly Ballroom?)? No. After all, the audience is suppose to be dumb asses.
I’ll go with The Martian. At least, it’s truly a science fiction-based movie.October 25, 2015 at 11:48 am #196348
While The Godfather Part II and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King both won, the Academy does not tend to nominate sequels for Best Picture.
The only other times the voting body supported a sequel for the top honor was
1945 The Bells of St. Mary’s
1990 The Godfather Part III
2002 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
2010 Toy Story 3
Based on the historical perspective, I suspect The Martian has the best shot.October 25, 2015 at 12:18 pm #196349
The Martian is just another sci-fi movie at the end of the day with a wisecracking Matt Damon. Star Wars: The Force Awakens will be the movie that tops Avatar. If it’s great among critics and fans, there’s no contest. It DEMANDS to be an Oscar player in every major category. Otherwise, only the relatives of the Oscar nominees will be catching the telecast next year and not much else.October 25, 2015 at 1:15 pm #196350
Neither bar a few tech nomsOctober 25, 2015 at 5:41 pm #196351
I also just remembered something I forgot to mention earlier. I think that because Game of Thrones just won the Emmy for Best TV Series-Drama, and became the first sci-fi/fantasy show to do so, it might indicate that the industry is slowly warming up to awarding fanboy/genre fare in major categories which could be a good sign for either Star Wars or The Martian.
Idk if the TV and Film voting branches overlap. But if so, then the GOT win could benefit the fanboy fare in consideration for the major categories.October 25, 2015 at 5:54 pm #196353
Right now, The Martian has the better shot. It has both critical and commercial success, and has the narrative of being Ridley Scott’s best movie since Gladiator & Black Hawk Down. Star Wars still needs to prove that it can be great again after the widely disdained prequels. And even if it does exceed expectations, sequels are not generally embraced by the Academy, so it has a very steep hill to climb.December 16, 2015 at 8:53 am #196354
I’m thinking more and more that they’ll embrace BOTH films. Hmm, what to do, what to do???