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October 11, 2015 at 11:12 pm #195537
I don’t care how great they are, I just can’t see them giving two young actors like that another lead Oscar so soon.
Disagree?October 11, 2015 at 11:51 pm #195539
Agree completely.October 12, 2015 at 12:26 am #195540
In Jennifer Lawrence’s case, I think stranger things have happened. I’m not predicting her yet, but if Joy becomes a huge player, the notion of her winning again has to be given some weight.
But, yeah, I don’t think too many people are putting that much stock in Redmayne winning again. He’s very likely going to be nominated again, but his film doesn’t seem like it’s going to have the same impact that Theory of Everything did, and Fassbender already seems to be ahead of him.October 12, 2015 at 1:53 am #195541
Since everybody in the Academy votes for the winners, repeat / frequent winners will be rife. For Lawrence, it really depends how strong a role Joy will play in the race. And ultimately, what she brings to the table with her performance. She is popular. Very popular. And if she somehow manages to get unwavering support from critics, Academy voters will follow. The backlash people are predicting will be a non event. Critics and Ocar watchers might hate her in the end, but the industry surely won’t. There is no rule that says you can’t win back to back Oscars. Or you can’t win multiple Oscars in a short span of time.October 12, 2015 at 3:34 am #195542
I don’t think both will be awarded this season.
Jennifer Lawrence could well do it, though. Best Actress is stacked, and the likes of Blanchett and Larson seem to be in pole positions for this category at the moment, but Lawrence could come up strong. Joy may do really well, as other O Russell films have recently. What are the odds that an O Russell film gets snubbed across the board again? Best Actress is one of the film’s best shots (on paper).
If anything, the fact that she has won before possibly stands her in greater stead for a win. We know voters love her, the internet loves her, and it will get many people talking about the Oscars. Much more than any other actress winning. Her win was arguably the biggest talking point for many the morning after her winning night. She is likeable and appeals to a broad range of demographics. Respected by the older audiences, who make up the majority of voters, loved by younger ones, and both males and females seem to like her generally.
Eddie Redmayne is looking likely to get nominated, but I highly doubt that he will win again. Maybe there is a sense with Redmayne that had he not won last year, then he could stand a stronger shot this time around. I do think that if he did lose last year, then he would be more of a contender this year, but even still, I think Fassbender is in control of this race at the moment, and DiCaprio is a huge unknown.
I think Redmayne will get nominated, but the head to head for Best Actor will be Fassbender v DiCaprio. And I think that would even be the case if Redmayne wasn’t the most recent winner.October 12, 2015 at 6:24 am #195543
I don’t think they’ll win again. Redmayne just won and the film, and his performance, aren’t receiving the same kind of passion as Theory of Everything.
Lawrence, definitely not. One reason is her apparent recluctance to campaign. I’m guessing that’s because a.) she really doesn’t want to campaign and b.) her plate is already full (promoting Hunger Games, filming Passengers, getting through filming X-Men, co-writing script with Amy Schumer). Unless her film becomes a juggernaut, she’s not gonna win again. Plus, because she already won and can have her cake, they might not feel she really needs it.October 12, 2015 at 8:38 am #195544
I think that both have a good chance of being nominated, but it will actually be better for them career-wise to not win again so soon after their first ones. Lawrence has three nominations to Redmayne’s one, so she at least has proven herself Oscar-wise. I’m still thinking it will be Fassbender/DiCaprio and Blanchett/Larson.
Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/October 12, 2015 at 9:43 am #195545
I can see Lawrence winning again. She’s getting STRONG notices out of last week’s test screening with some people in attendance declaring it to be a career-best performance for her. Lawrence apparently really owns the film with both screen time and dominates every scene she’s in, which is most of them. I think Joy will be a big awards player, which will only help her. I’m not banking on it, but I definitely think it could be a possibility. By 2016, she’ll have won 3 years ago, which I think puts her in a better place since she’s not as much of a recent winner. She did come close to winning again in 2014, but she didn’t obviously. I think a case really has to be made for her for those reasons, as well as her sheer popularity within the industry as others have already mentioned.
Redmayne doesn’t have a chance in my opinion. His reviews for his film aren’t that great and he seems to be being out done by Alicia Vikander who apparently gives the better performance of the two.October 12, 2015 at 9:54 am #195546
As of now, I am actually predicting Redmayne will repeat – partly because I don’t think enough female voters will go for Di Caprio due to that film being so brutal and ugly (and based on the trailer, it looks to me to be a fairly one-note performance). As for Fassbender, he’s more of a possibility – real person, esp. one most of us have seen (Redmayne plays a real person too but we don’t “know” that person), and a biopic that includes illness and death often equals Oscar! I am hoping Depp isn’t nominated; I would vastly prefer for Matt Damon to make it in for his truly remarkable great performance in The Martian (and I didn’t think I was going to like it at all!) I’m thinking Geza Rohrig has a shot at a nomination for Son of Saul.
As for Lawrence: she also has a good chance but it depends on who the final five nominees turn out to be, and if Mara and/or Vikander make it in to the Lead Actress category. I actually don’t think Larson will get nominated, only because I’ve heard from others that she isn’t in the last half of the movie all that much, but we will see. As for Blanchett, I’m just not convinced she will win a third Oscar so soon after winning her second. Again, it’s going to depend on who the final five nominees are. Will Rampling and/or Smith make it in? Lawrence is helped by a Christmas day release date; is it too soon for her second Oscar? Not sure. If she hadn’t won for SLP, I think she would be very likely. And lastly: I just don’t get why Julia Roberts isn’t in the conversation? Based solely on the trailer, I would think she would be a shoo-in for a nomination (I noticed she’s third billed, so perhaps in the film her role is smaller and more of a supporting role? In the trailer, she sure looks like the female lead) I honestly think Roberts will get a nomination and could even win a second Oscar….
I think Redmayne has the better shot than Lawrence, but we’ll have to wait and see the rest of the movies and how it all shakes out.October 12, 2015 at 10:33 am #195547
As of now, I am actually predicting Redmayne will repeat – partly because I don’t think enough female voters will go for Di Caprio due to that film being so brutal and ugly
Kinda sexist, mate.
Anyway, I just can’t see Redmayne winning again unless The Danish Girl were a Forrest Gump-type juggernaut, which it surely is not. Not to mention there’s the overwhelming opportunity to award another, rather better-reviewed biographical performance (Fassbender) or either of the “overdue” actors (DiCaprio and Depp).
As for Lawrence, I’m just waiting for her to crash into the derby with career-best reviews and pull a Jodie Foster with her second lead actress Oscar in 3 years while still under the age of 30. But I think she’d have to be sensational, so I’ve got Brie Larson at the top spot for now.October 12, 2015 at 10:33 am #195548
I agree with the sentiments that at this point they are both looking likely for a nomination but as for repeat wins Lawrence has the edge.
I think that people are forgetting something pretty important: Christoph Waltz.October 12, 2015 at 10:40 am #195549
^ Not sure how relevant Waltz is really. There wasn’t much narrative involved in his second win except for a tight race in which he gave the most dominant performance in a film voters were actually watching (i.e. not The Master). Redmayne and Lawrence will need far stronger narratives for a second lead win in such a short space of time.October 12, 2015 at 11:09 am #195550
Joy wins BP, you bet your bottom dollar JLaw will win in a frontrunnerless race.October 12, 2015 at 12:24 pm #195551
Frankly, I think Jen almost won her 2nd with American Hustle and was actively working AGAINST the win because of a “too much, too soon” narrative, and knowing the backlash would be HUGE if she won over Lupita. If she actually WANTS the win this year? I think she’ll have a great shot, assuming Joy is somewhere in SLP/AH level of critical acclaim.October 12, 2015 at 12:39 pm #195552
^ Not sure how relevant Waltz is really. There wasn’t much narrative involved in his second win except for a tight race in which he gave the most dominant performance in a film voters were actually watching (i.e. not The Master). Redmayne and Lawrence will need far stronger narratives for a second lead win in such a short space of time.
Not to mention Waltz was competing against four previous winners, so it wasn’t like there was a huge incentive to reward anyone else.