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February 13, 2017 at 5:43 pm #1202011303
Toni Erdmann was the frontrunner for best foreign language film for a while (Since Elle and The Handmaiden weren’t even nominated), but after Trump’s travel ban it looks like The Salesman might win with the political vote. I really hope they don’t reward it just for that, but we all know quality is rarely the only thing considered.February 13, 2017 at 5:54 pm #1202011315
Do you think Toni Erdmann loosing BAFTA helps The Salesman?February 13, 2017 at 5:56 pm #1202011318
Since the ballots are under a preferential system, could Toni Erdmann and The Salesman split the vote and cause A Man Called Ove to win?February 13, 2017 at 6:58 pm #1202011360
I am predicting A Man Called Ove just because this doesn’t seem to have a solid frontrunner. It reminds me of the animation race when the Lego Movie was snubbed (Elle) and then we all thought How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Toni Erdmann) would win. Then Big Hero 6 won. Also Man Called Ove has more support with an extra nomination.February 13, 2017 at 7:22 pm #1202011371
Farhadi can attend the Oscars now if he’s decided to attend and not boycott it. It could certainly be a “moment” hearing his acceptance speech, and voters would have an ample chance to stick it to Trump. But I’m not sure if they’re quite in that mindset over a Foreign Language Film Oscar win. I’m still predicting “Toni Erdmann” with its raised profile post-remake news and critical frontrunner.February 13, 2017 at 7:23 pm #1202011373
I am predicting A Man Called Ove just because this doesn’t seem to have a solid frontrunner. It reminds me of the animation race when the Lego Movie was snubbed (Elle) and then we all thought How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Toni Erdmann) would win. Then Big Hero 6 won. Also Man Called Ove has more support with an extra nomination.
I’ve been thinking about that 2nd nom for A Man Called Ove, I definitely think it makes it more of a contender than Tanna and Land of Mine, but I’m not sure if it’ll get the win, I’d still probably go with Toni Erdmann or Salesman.February 14, 2017 at 10:22 am #1202011818
I don’t think The Salesman was eligible at BAFTA. It’s not released in the UK till the end of March, but it is getting an open-air screening in Trafalgar Square on the same day as the Oscars. I wonder if this news will keep it fresh in the minds of British members of AMPAS.February 15, 2017 at 7:48 am #1202012556
Why is it guaranteed? Just want to hear your reasoning? I am still on the fence on which way top go on this category.February 15, 2017 at 8:20 am #1202012564
I’m pretty sure nearly every Academy member heard about Farhadi’s boycott and they should see this as a way to stick it to Trump. Besides, many Academy members don’t even watch these movies, so they’ll go based purely off of what they’ve heard. And Toni Erdmann was never an unbeatable frontrunner anyway. I enjoyed it, but the average voter may see it as long, boring, and not very funny. And while Ove is a potential spoiler, I still don’t see any of the other films receiving a significant chunk of the vote.February 15, 2017 at 9:59 am #1202012636
With the announcement of Nicholson and Wiig remaking Toni Erdmann….that title could be on voters mind at the right time.February 15, 2017 at 5:09 pm #1202012944
AMPAS, The Writer’s Guild, AFI and Harvey Weinstein have all been vocal and issued statements regarding supporting Asghar Farhadi. The Salesman is also being played in front of 10000 people in London’s trafalgar square on Feb 26 as a sign of protest. Even if we disregard all of that, I believe Toni Erdmann is more divisive than The Salesman. The blood spurting toe nail scene and the petit-fours scene might not play the best to older audiences. The long run-time doesn’t help either.
The ending of Toni Erdmann is ambiguous, while the ending of The Salesman is clear and concise. Wouldn’t you agree that Toni Erdmann would benefit a lot more from a second viewing? People might not see the humor or understand it the first time around. And if we assume they don’t even watch the films, then I think they are more likely to vote for Asghar Farhadi and Iran, just based on the politics of it.