Historically it lands this week, maybe Thursday or Friday. My final predix for the foreign language shortlist:
AUSTRIA (Goodnight Mommy)
BRAZIL (Second Mother)
COLOMBIA (Embrace of the Serpent)
CHILE (The Club)
HUNGARY (Son of Saul)
TAIWAN (The Assassin)
Alternate for JORDAN would be SWEDEN (Pigeon Sitting Reflecting, etc etc)
What’s everyone else thinking?
Home Care (Czech Republic)
The only problem with the OP’s list (a perfectly fine slate of contenders) is that it names the most high-profile suspects and “name” titles, and if this branch has taught us anything, it’s that at least a few outliers always make their way onto the short list (and usually the final nomination slate, too).
I’ll admit that I would love that kind of geographic diversity, but the eventual nominees usually have a hard European slant so it will be nice if we get more regions represented. Definitely should be interesting.
The consistent unpredictability of the shortlist means it’s not worth my time to try and predict it. Selecting 5 out of 9 is one thing, 9 out of 81 is another.
I wouldn’t even be that shocked if frontrunner Son of Saul missed the shortlist altogether, but it would be rather gutting. I guess (hope) it will probably get the committee vote if it doesn’t get the mainstream one.
Yeah…. I think *everyone* would be shocked if SON OF SAUL didn’t make the shortlist. In fact, in the wake of 4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, 2 DAYS not being nominated several years ago, the rules have changed to effectively ensure something like SON OF SAUL will be shortlisted.
my predix for the shortlist:
The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Felix and Meira (Canada)
The Club (Chile)
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence (Sweden)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
HUNGARY is a lock.
ICELAND, ARGENTINA (El Clan), BRAZIL then.
With Mustang, we may have our biggest chance since Amélie 15 years ago, but I don’t want to jinx it :p
I’d love to see a country get its first nomination here, like COLOMBIA or PORTUGAL (unlikely).