December 22, 2016 at 7:55 pm #1201973943
Tonight Anne and I took the gloves off …December 22, 2016 at 11:51 pm #1201974015
This was fun and insightful. Thanks!December 23, 2016 at 12:38 am #1201974024
Great Slugfest! Anne Thompson finally gave me what I needed to put the Jungle Book back into my predictions. That’s my favorite movie by the way.December 23, 2016 at 1:42 am #1201974032
I originally posted this under the Youtube comments section of the video, thought I’d re-post it here for all my fellow derbyites to see:
Sorry Anne, Hacksaw Ridge is the consistently strong lock, and Arrival is the question mark, I think you’ve got those 2 movies backwards in terms of odds. Heck, Hugo Weaving could even get in Supporting on the coattails of the movies success, the same way Tom Hardy (Revenant) and Jonah Hill (Wolf of Wall Street) rode in. I’ve even got SAG/Critics Choice/Golden Globe nominee Amy Adams getting snubbed, just like Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) couldn’t make the Oscar noms, in spite of getting in EVERYWHERE else. I have Arrival only getting in Cinematography, Visual Effects, and I think Sound Editing. But that is IT. Be very careful with Arrival. 😐
Manchester will NOT win. Its only chance at a Best Picture WIN, will be if it somehow wins SAG Ensemble, which is obviously going to Moonlight, by far the most universally acclaimed cast of the year. La La Land is the frontrunner, but Moonlight could very well have that Spotlight-esque passion vote to pull of the big upset of the night. Such an upset seems especially likely to happen when you consider, what a huge statement awarding a film about a gay black person Best Picture would be. Just think, after 2 freaking years of #OscarssoWhite, and as a symbolic “F*k you” to the insanely bigoted year we’ve had, with Trump winning *the electoral college, such and extraordinary choice from the Academy would no doubt contribute to their cultural relevance, whether or not you even like the movie!
I also think, but am not (yet) predicting, Jackie could get nominated with the more art-house friendly directors branch, but not have enough overall love to land it a Best Picture nod, ala Foxcatcher. Just my thoughts. :)December 23, 2016 at 4:25 am #1201974075
Baby said Fences could win Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actress. Girl…..otherwise, good insight.December 23, 2016 at 9:02 am #1201974167
She is off her rocker thinking Bening will win after Bening missed SAG. And I don’t agree that Manchester is winning either but both of those categories are ripe for an upset.December 23, 2016 at 10:38 am #1201974183
Thompson is totally wrong about Annette Bening. I don’t believe she will even be nominated (placing in 6th) and is not even close to being a frontrunner in the race – even if she replaces Streep in the 5th slot or they snub Huppert or Adams. I like Bening but I truly believe it’s Portman vs. Stone. I am going with Stone for the win. I am rooting for Isabelle Huppert and if I had a vote I would vote for her.