September 30, 2014 at 1:06 pm #162431
It’s still early enough in the awards season that there are still plenty of unknown quantities among the contenders. Do you have any big hunches? Movies or performances no one is talking about yet that are going to be a big deal? Current rontrunners that you think are bound to be snubbed like Oprah was?
For instance, I have nothing to go on besides synopsis, cast, crew, and release date, but based on those factors I have a hunch “Selma” is going to be a major player. I’ve got it on my lists for Picture, Director, and Actor. Of course, that could be completely wrong, but a Christmas release with major historical and political import from a potential headline-making filmmaker (Oscars have never nominated a black woman for Best Director before) — if it’s good, it could take off in a big way.
Anybody else have any hunches?September 30, 2014 at 1:40 pm #162433
I think there was a thread earlier made about this but I think people are underestamating Grand Budapest, Whiplash, and The Skeleton TwinsSeptember 30, 2014 at 2:24 pm #162434
I totally agree Daniel, I think people are underestimating Selma. I also have it in Picture, Director, Actor, and if she gets added to the prediction center I think I might add Carmen Ejogo too. Just based on everything we’ve seen, I have this gut feeling it’s really going to get pulled off. I worry the biggest thing in its way is 12 Years a Slave, and the academy maybe thinking they’ve done their part for race-movies (which is obviously ridiculous but unfortunately its very possible the voters think this way)
I’m also maintaing that someone from Into the Woods will get nominated. I don’t know which one, but I just have this feeling that someone will get in, and I’m for some reason leaning towards Kendrick of Blunt.September 30, 2014 at 2:48 pm #162435
I have Selma in those categories, too. I also think Whiplash just seems to generate SO much enthusiasm everywhere it plays that I can see it definitely getting maybe a Picture, Screenplay and possibly Editing nomination to join Mr. Simmons. I also have Mr. Turner down for some major nominatons: Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography, let alone more major tech noms. I think Spall has so much goodwill with BAFTA voters (including those who overlap with Oscars), and the directors’ branch loves Leigh (he got a lone director nomination last time he made something visually distinct like this seems). Not to mention the writers’ branch throws him a bone every time he writes a screenplay these days. And the techs just look so lush.
As far as major snubs go, I feel like we’ll see a few. For one thing, I don’t see why Angelina Jolie can’t turn off the directing branch with her starpower a la Affleck (who himself was a much more proven directorial talent than she is), especially if Ava DuVernay cockblocks her narrative of nominating a female director. I kinda seemed to upset people here by suggesting that Amy Adams isn’t usually good enough to get a nomination without better actors in an ensemble backing her up, but I stand by it (*cowers in fear*). And I fear Eddie Redmayne could go the route of someone like John Hawkes (with Felicity Jones in a Hunt mold of a nomination).
Getting a bit more obscure, I think the music branch will respond to Desplat’s wonderfully whimsical work in Grand Budapest sooner than his work in baitier films (although he can still get double-nodded). I’ve already championed the idea that I think The Tale of Princess Kaguya can go so far as to be a frontrunner in Animated Feature in the home stretch of the season. Maybe I’ll be so wrong about all of these things when all is said and done, but frankly things usually tend to look pretty different in January than they do in September.September 30, 2014 at 2:49 pm #162436
Katherine Waterson for Inherent Vice and Jack O’Connell for Unbroken!September 30, 2014 at 2:51 pm #162437
It’s like there is a built in 1 star for anyone that speaks the words “Skeleton Twins” on this siteSeptember 30, 2014 at 3:09 pm #162438
Unbroken to sweep in the majority of the categories.September 30, 2014 at 5:23 pm #162439
I’m strongly considering Whiplash for a Best Picture nomination.
Also, Top Five could be a player at the Globes.September 30, 2014 at 5:50 pm #162441
Josh Brolin and Katherine Waterston in Inherent Vice
Song of the Sea and Tale of Princess Kaguya for Animated Film (remember when A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita both got in over Tintin? “Obscure” films are nominated here all the time.)
Still Alice for Best Adapted Screenplay
Belle for Costume Design
I’d advise that anyone not predicting a 100/1 odds contender in any category to revise their predictions until they have at least 3 or 4 of them. The day before nominations announcement last January, Philomena, Jonah Hill and The Missing Picture all had 100/1 odds. I’d been predicting the latter two for quite some time before ultimately giving up on them. I’ve learned my lesson.September 30, 2014 at 6:09 pm #162442
Mia Wasikowski (Tracks) for Best Actress. The last spot is still very much up for grabs. I think it’s Mia, Felicity Jones, and probably Hilary Swank battling for it.September 30, 2014 at 6:20 pm #162443
I predict that Unbroken is gonna flop. Not financially, but it won’t be the big Oscar contender people are predicting it to be.September 30, 2014 at 6:21 pm #162444
Samantha Morton in Miss Julie for Best Supporting Actress
Mia Wasikowska in Tracks for Best Leading ActressSeptember 30, 2014 at 7:02 pm #162445
Same with me… I just can’t picture both supporting current frontrunners winning… I think Moore stands a big chance if she campaigns for Maps: Rave reviews, Cannes win, flashy role…September 30, 2014 at 8:03 pm #162446
I predict that Unbroken is gonna flop. Not financially, but it won’t be the big Oscar contender people are predicting it to be.
I agree. It looks super boring. I think Roger Deakins will get in for Cinematography and then maybe one other thing. But I don’t know for sure yet until I see it