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What are your two super bets predictions for tonight's Oscars?

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  • FreemanGriffin
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    #1202505292

    I figure: no guts, no glory – so I am choosing two long shots for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay, and they are both Lady Bird. and just like Spotlight I think those will be the only two awards the film wins. I will either be spectacularly right or way wrong but oh well (: (: (:

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    Holly Rose
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    #1202505299

    I used mine on Best Adapted Screenplay for Call Me By Your Name, and Costume Design for Phantom Thread….

    So far those are the only categories I’m mostly confident about. I mean, honestly I don’t really think anything is a lock this year…. and I feel like Molly’s Game or Mudbound might be able to upset CMBYN in Adapted Screenplay but its more unlikely than likely to me. This year is a strange one!

     

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    eastwest
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    #1202505301

    Used mine on both doc categories.

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    Teridax
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    #1202505304

    I’m doing exactly what I did last year, using one Super Bet for the biggest lock and the other I’m going against the herd. Last year my “lock” Super Bet was placed on La La Land winning Music Score and the “bold” Super Bet was placed on Moonlight winning Picture, which seemed obvious to me since the backlash against La La Land was so mainstream and intense and Moonlight was the only clear alternative due to it defeating Manchester by the Sea and La La Land at WGA. It even swept the Independent Spirit Awards, which even Get Out didn’t manage to do!

    This year, my “lock” Super Bet is placed on Guillermo Del Toro winning Director for The Shape of Water and my “bold” Super Bet where I go against the herd is on Bafta winner Blade Runner 2049 for Visual Effects. I think even many Oscar voters who hated that movie would admit it sure looked amazing. Which could help it carry Cinematography along for the ride… BUT I’m still too scared to predict Roger Deakins to win and be wrong. The Shape of Water is more universally beloved, Director and Cinematography have gone together the past few years at the Oscars, but then again, aren’t stats and category correlations meant to be broken at some point? I’m probably going to stick with Lausten for Cinematography, even though I don’t have nearly the level of confidence I have with Blade Runner winning Visual Effects. War for the Planet of the Apes couldn’t even get a nomination in any other category, not even for Sound Editing! I think even the lazy Oscar voter will most likely vote for Blade Runner simply due to a lack of competition in that category. Actually, tomorrow before the predictions center closes I might just wish-dict Roger Deakins for the overdue win after all. Even though BR 2049 has the stink of box office failure and a ton of people found it really boring, I would still be wrong with everyone else rather than incorrectly predict Dan Lausten where I would be wrong on my own.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202505311

    and the “bold” Super Bet was placed on Moonlight winning Picture, which seemed obvious to me since the backlash against La La Land was so mainstream and intense and Moonlight was the only clear alternative due to it defeating Manchester by the Sea and La La Land at WGA.

    My super bets this year goes to Del Toro and Coco. Those are pretty much locks to win.

    Last year, you predicted that Moonlight would win Best Picture due to the LLL backlash. Are you sticking with Billboards for this season? I mean, there’s a backlash against Billboards. My prediction is still Billboards due to my point system. I guess my point here is how is the Billboards backlash here any different than the La La Land backlash?

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    MKnight98
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    #1202505334

    These are my two super bets. Maybe they could have been better used in other, more “locked” categories but oh well:

    Baby Driver for Film Editing. I really do think this is the one that takes the category.

    And War for the Planet of the Apes for Visual Effects – because I’m still holding on.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  MKnight98.
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    kancov
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    #1202505352

    I will probably bet on Editing (Baby Driver) and Documentary (Icarus), since those are my best odds. I wish I could predict Get Out for Best Picture and my super bet.

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    Elazul
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    #1202505355

    Dunkirk for Sound Mixing, On Body and Soul for Foreign Film.

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    Teridax
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    #1202505362

    and the “bold” Super Bet was placed on Moonlight winning Picture, which seemed obvious to me since the backlash against La La Land was so mainstream and intense and Moonlight was the only clear alternative due to it defeating Manchester by the Sea and La La Land at WGA.

    My super bets this year goes to Del Toro and Coco. Those are pretty much locks to win.

    Last year, you predicted that Moonlight would win Best Picture due to the LLL backlash. Are you sticking with Billboards for this season? I mean, there’s a backlash against Billboards. My prediction is still Billboards due to my point system. I guess my point here is how is the Billboards backlash here any different than the La La Land backlash?

    I actually switched to The Shape of Water for Best Picture and even (call me crazy with its Bafta loss and outright SNUB at the Globes) Get Out for Original Screenplay. I just don’t see the winners of the Baftas Big 8 categories matching up 100% with the Oscars Big 8, plus La La Land and Moonlight still had Oscar Directing nominations which Three Billboards notably does not have. Plus, when Argo overcame its Directing snub to win Picture it had a personal emotional edge, the comeback narrative for Ben Affleck. Argo won Bafta and Globe Picture and Director as well as PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG Ensemble. It basically cleaned up during the entire post-Globes (where it won Picture and Director) half of awards season. I’m not super confident in The Shape of Water for Picture either with its SAG Ensemble snub, but all that tells me is that it isn’t winning any Oscars for acting and McDormand and Rockwell are safe to win Oscars for Billboards. I just think The Shape of Water has the least strikes against it. Yeah, no Best Picture winner since Braveheart has won Best Picture without a SAG Ensemble nod, but then no movie had won BP at the Oscars without an ACE Eddie nomination since Driving Miss Daisy… until Spotlight came along. Stats are made to be broken, right? We’re not talking having ZERO tech nods, Bafta Picture snub, zero SAG wins, and Globe snubs for Screenplay and Director which all combine cripple Get Out for Picture in my book.

    No movie has won Picture at the Oscars without a win at SAG since The Hurt Locker, so on its own it could overcome that. Tougher without a Bafta Picture nomination, but if Braveheart could do that then why can’t Get Out? BUT winning Picture in spite of having just 4 nominations… no movie has done that at the Oscars since Cavalcade over 80 years ago. I think that’s just too much for Get Out to realistically overcome. Don’t even get me started on Get Out’s inexcusable snub for Film Editing.

    Interestingly, the last few Best Original Screenplay winners at the Oscars were snubbed for Film Editing, Manchester by the Sea, Birdman, Her, Django Unchained, and Midnight In Paris. Even though Spotlight had an Oscar nod for Film Editing it was snubbed from the Editors guild! In a weirdly paradoxical way, Get Out might actually be helped by its Film Editing Oscar snub in the Original Screenplay category every bit as much as that same exact snub kills its chances to win Best Picture. Also, the past 13 freaking winners of the Critics’ Choice awards Best Screenplay category have gone on to win an Oscar for Screenplay, including the past 12 Original Screenplay winners, and including before the Critics’ Choice even separated their writing category into Original and Adapted.

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    Gain
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    #1202505363

    A Fantastic Woman for foreign language film.

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    Teridax
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    #1202505364

    These are my two super bets. Maybe they could have been better used in other, more “locked” categories but oh well:

    Baby Driver for Film Editing. I really do think this is the one that takes the category.

    And War for the Planet of the Apes for Visual Effects – because I’m still holding on.

    Don’t do it. Not after it lost Bafta and just like the first 2 Planet of the Apes (Serkis era) films, couldn’t get a single other Oscar nomination. You’ve been warned for the last time.

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    Teridax
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    #1202505366

    I will probably bet on Editing (Baby Driver) and Documentary (Icarus), since those are my best odds. I wish I could predict Get Out for Best Picture and my super bet.

    Kancov, I have almost every single nominee STILL predicted at the 2/1 odds they all started at when the predictions center opened! Should I update them with the current odds, or will my score be better served in points by me keeping them in at 2/1 everywhere? What’s your advice?

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    Marco B.
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    #1202505374

    Frances McDormand as Best Actress and, slightly more risky, Deakins for Cinematography.

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    Marco B.
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    #1202505375

    I will probably bet on Editing (Baby Driver)

    Betting on Baby Driver is very tempting. But I feel like they admire Dunkirk much more than I expected, so I’m sticking – not without doubts – on it winning Editing and both Sounds.

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    Macca
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    #1202505377

    Same as the OP I’m going guts or glory and betting on Lady Bird for BP and Director.

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