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What do you think of experts’ new Oscar predictions?

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    May 13th, 2011
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    #196308

    Over the past few days we just got fresh new Oscar predictions from Thelma Adams, Tim Gray, Tariq Khan, Scott Mantz, Jack Mathews, Michael Musto, Jenelle Riley, Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan, Sasha Stone, Anne Thompson and Susan Wloszczyna

    Check ’em out here:

    http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2015-nominations-nominations/best-picture.html

    http://tinyurl.com/msa249f

    When predictions are combined, they generate these rankings:

    http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/300/

    In both sections, there’s a small calendar in the top left corner of each page. Click on it, change the date and you can see how predix change over time.

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    FilmGuy619
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    #196310

    Well, so far, a lot of your Best Actor predictions give me confidence that we will witness the moniker “Academy Award winner Michael Fassbender” be introduced. 

    I also love how Inside Out seems like the runaway favorite for Best Animated Feature. My favorite movie of the year so far. 

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    DamianWayne
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    #196311

    Nothing from Black Mass is happening outside of Depp and even he is sinking faster than the Titanic.

    Props for picking Weisz over Fonda, Tom. 

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    manakamana
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    #196312

    I think The Martian will probably be mostly forgotten after Star Wars

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    Asgaroth
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    #196313

    I think The Martian will probably be mostly forgotten after Star Wars

    I think that too. I think The Martian chances are being somewhat too optimistic here. And if the Academy wants to include a big budgeted, box office smash-hit space film, to diversify their nominations lineup and increase ratings, and if SW7 gets the approval from critics (which is highly likely), its obvious that the clear option will be this one. There will be room for only one, and The Martian will be totally overshadowed by December.

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    FilmGuy619
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    #196314

    I disagree. When District 9 came out, it wasn’t overshadowed by Avatars by the time awards season rolled around and they both got in. So I don’t see why both Star Wars and The Martian can’t be.

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    KyleBailey
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    #196315

    District 9 was A. A fluke B. In a time when 10 spots were guaranteed. There just is not much room anymore for 2 big blockbusters like The Martian and Star Wars 

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    manakamana
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    #196316

    I could be wrong, but I think The Martian and Star Wars will have more of an overlapping fanbase than District 9 and Avatar did.

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    seabel
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    #196317

    The Martian, Trumbo, Damon, Depp, Edgerton, Bullock… are not getting nominated.

    The predictions, overall, seem to have good taste.

    I’d say we have this contenders:

    BEST PICTURE (15 contenders)
    The Big Short
    Bridge of Spies
    Brooklyn
    Carol
    The Danish Girl
    The Hateful Eight
    Inside Out
    Joy
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Revenant
    Room
    Son of Saul
    Spotlight
    Steve Jobs
    Youth

    BEST DIRECTOR (11 contenders)
    Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
    Todd Haynes, Carol
    Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
    Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
    David O. Russell, Joy
    George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
    Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
    Lenny Abrahamson, Room
    Laszlo Nèmes, Son of Saul
    Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
    Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

    BEST ACTOR (9 contenders)
    Michael Caine, Youth
    Leonardo Di Caprio, The Revenant
    Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
    Jake Gyllenhaal, Southpaw
    Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
    Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
    Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
    Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
    Will Smith, Concussion

    BEST ACTRESS (7 contenders)
    Cate Blanchett, Carol
    Brie Larson, Room
    Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
    Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
    Charlotte Rampling, 45 years
    Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
    Lily Tomlin, Grandma

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (9 contenders)
    Robert de Niro, Joy
    Benicio del Toro, Sicario
    Tom Hardy, The Revenant
    Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
    Michael Keaton, Spotlight
    Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
    Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
    Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
    Jacob Tremblay, Room

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (7 contenders)
    Jane Fonda, Youth
    Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
    Diane Ladd, Joy
    Rooney Mara, Carol
    Isabella Rossellini, Joy
    Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
    Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

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    PJ Edwards
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    #196318

    It’s funny seeing people desperately think of all these scenarios where Martian won’t be nominated. Meanwhile in reality, it just hit #1 again over the disappointing wide release of Steve Flops.

    One thing I am surprised at is that Russell is being backed heavily in director and that Spotlight and Joy are neck and neck. Looks like even they know they can’t stop what’s coming.

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    Freddie Deane
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    #196319

    I think that the experts may be overstating room slightly, can only see Brie Larson getting in here.Take three of last years best actress nominees for example: Reese Witherspoon, Rosmand Pike, Juliane Moore all had movies that had a certain amount of critical support, and all three movies had a reasonable exception of getting into adapted screenplay, and in the end none of them did. I think there may be a same fate for room.

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    benbraddock
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    #196320

    Brie and Jason are pretty locked. I saw the film. They are brilliant together. His innocence and reactions are so beautiful. Her heartbreaking performance cries Oscar. I’m not sure she will win but she’s a WOW

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    seabel
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    #196321

    It’s funny seeing people desperately think of all these scenarios where Martian won’t be nominated. Meanwhile in reality, it just hit #1 again over the disappointing wide release of Steve Flops.
    One thing I am surprised at is that Russell is being backed heavily in director and that Spotlight and Joy are neck and neck. Looks like even they know they can’t stop what’s coming.

    Box Office doesn’t matter all the time. And the movie has been released just for 17 days. It’s universally acclaimed by critics and it can make more money until February (Although we know it’s not gonna be 100 million, it will probably stay in 30 million after all).

    Whiplash – 13 million (3 Oscar winner, nominated Best Picture)
    Nebraska – 17 million (6 Oscar nominee, nominated Best Picture)
    Beasts of the Southern Wild – 17 million (4 Oscar nominee, nominated Best Picture)
    Amour – 6 million (1 Oscar winner, nominated Best Picture)
    The Tree of Life – 13 million (3 Oscar nominee, nominated Best Picture)
    127 hours – 18 million (6 Oscar nominee, nominated Best Picture)
    Winter’s Bone – 6 million (4 Oscar nominee, including Best Picture)
    The Hurt Locker – 17 million (6 Oscar winner, including Best Picture)
    An Education – 12 million (3 Oscar nominee, including Best Picture)
    A Serious Man – 9 million (2 Oscar nominee, including Best Picture)
    Frost/Nixon – 18 million (5 Oscar nominee, including Best Picture)
    Letters from Iwo Jima – 13 million (Oscar nominee, including Best Picture)

     

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    PJ Edwards
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    #196323

    None of those films were predicted to make $19M in their wide opening nor were they labeled a flop like Steve Flops.

    finance.yahoo.com/news/looks-aaron-sorkins-steve-jobs-211706017.html

    “”Steve Jobs,” the new biography of the Apple cofounder produced by Aaron Sorkin, had a disappointing debut, earning only an estimated $7.3 million in its opening wide-release weekend, according to Rentrak.
    That put it into 7th place in U.S., and is only slightly more than the $6.7 million earned by the widely panned “Jobs,” which came out in 2013, the Wall Street Journal reports. “Steve Jobs” was expected to lead the pack this weekend after opening on a small number of screens last weekend.”

    The box office isn’t the problem. Only the symptom of the larger issues the film is facing. Like the mixed WOM, the Apple execs trashing it, and pre-production chaos.

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    Amanda Spears
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    #196325

    The theme of this years Best Actor race seems to be Who Will Be the Last Man Standing? So far we’ve seen two front runners stumble at the box office and undewhelm. Looking at you Fassbender and Depp. One possible winner has emerged and that’s Damon his movie is a hit and he’s front and center mix that with his likability and all but guaranteed Globe win and he could run away with this. But first we’ll need to see Revnant and Dicaprio’s latest attempt to reach the winner circle. Then there is Concussion and if the movie lives up to the trailer we could see Smith enter this race and runaway with this. We also have to remember we have yet to see three time in a row nominee Cooper in Burnt. He’s proven he’s likable with the Academy so could this be his turn to win? One thing I am sure of is Redmayne cannot win this race two years in a row he doesn’t fit they type to pull it off. So Who will Be the Last aman Standing? It’s going to get interesting quick.

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