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What influences you the most when predicting the Oscars?

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What influences you the most when predicting the Oscars?
Guild awards (SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA, etc.)
Other precursor awards (BAFTA, Globes, Critics Choice, etc.)
Oscar history (what typical wins in the past)
Your own personal preferences for the category
Other
  • Paul Hardister
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    Feb 26th, 2012
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    #1202015165

    Would be very curious to know what people use to make some of these close calls.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202015290

    Guilds, televised precursors, history and gut instinct.

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    manakamana
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    #1202015291

    By the time the Oscars come along, it feels like the guild awards are the most valuable indications of where industry people are feeling generally. Obviously it’s not that alone, and before the guilds you also have to make certain judgments, but that’s where people seem to overestimate the other “precursors” more than anywhere else. Especially the regional critics awards, as if the Oscars are just some Metacritic-esque aggregate of every award at the same level. “Natalie has won more critics awards!” But her film was never the juggernaut that LLL was and she just won recently anyways, and there was no felt urgency to give her another.

    So that’s the kind of thing where you just have to use some common sense (I’ll note that personal preferences often color your ability to see it that clearly and I’ve certainly done that before), and that includes not just blindly going by every guild award before Oscar night too because usually those awards include Academy voters in pretty small percentages.

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    Teridax
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    #1202015293

    I go for a sense of general buzz (hence why I’m picking Hidden Figures to win Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay) AND what the Academy has gone with in the past, the type of upsets and how they could have been predicted.

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