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What is it about Black Mass that has the Experts giving it such good odds?

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  • benutty
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    #193011

    As of now, between both Experts and Editors, only 4 of 19 don’t have Black Mass in their BP predictions. 2 have it at #1, 2 at #2 and 2 at #3. We’ve all seen the same trailers and promo materials for it. I’m unconvinced of its chances, but there’s so much early support for it that I can’t help but wonder what I’m missing. Help me understand! 

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    twenty
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    #193013

    I know we can’t rely on those but the test screening reports I had read were positive ,with comparisions being drawn to The Departed. Any way Venice FF is close so we’ll see.

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    Sab21
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    #193014

    Hope for Johnny Depp. Some people seem to be quite eager to see a comeback for him at the Oscars.
    Mafia movie. This means a potentially violent or exciting stories, corrupt statesmen and violent/more or less psychotic mafia characters. And women who are attracted to this world and these men but are treated badly by those men at the same time. This means potentially meaty characters & roles that could be nominated at the Oscars.
    I think that’s why people predict it or even want to see success for it. I don’t think it will be a flop (neither with audiences nor with critics), but I’m not sure it will be a total success with critics. I could either see it having between 80 & 85 % with Rotten Tomatoes (then it may have chances for some nominations) or around 60 % (then it will be forgotten, I suppose). 
    Venice will show. 

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    Halo_Insider
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    #193015

    I hadn’t realized that it was playing at both Venice until TIFF until just recently. That does have me even more curious in the film.

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    benbraddock
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    #193016

    September film? The supporting cast of men is impressive but Johnny depp? I think not.

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    babypook
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    #193017

    Hmmmm…I’m not too surprised by this, although it’s a september release. Let’s see how it does with Venice and TTIFF.

    Scott Cooper is an interesting, relatively young Director/Actor/Writer, and they do love one of their own. His other directorial efforts have received better than average critical reviews and Crazy Heart, his debut, did see wins for Music and Best Actor, with a nomination for Maggie Gyllenhaal.

    It’s a “true” story to boot, which the Academy seems to favour; and it’s Cross Creek pro, who arent strangers to seeing their films getting nominations.

    I was planning to see this anyways, so I’m not disappointed in the expectations, since I have them as well. I guess we’ll see, but my fingers are crossed for Johnny, the cast and the crew. Some stellar cast members here…..

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    CanadianFan
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    #193018

    Not a big fan of Scott Cooper, so hopefully he can prove me wrong with this one.

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    benutty
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    #193019

    I have a feeling Black Mass is going to go the way of The Counselor.

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    babypook
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    #193020

    I have a feeling Black Mass is going to go the way of The Counselor.

    The Counselor bombed with audiences/box office. Really tanked, although it recouped some worldwide and probably made money after the dust(s) settled.

     Let’s see if the same happens here. I hope not.

    Violence, blood, murders, history…sounds like a potential hit to me; although, seeing Johnny not being Captain Jack Sparrow could have the crowd crying out in shock.

     

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    OnTheAisle
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    #193021

    As of now, between both Experts and Editors, only 4 of 19 don’t have Black Mass in their BP predictions. 2 have it at #1, 2 at #2 and 2 at #3. We’ve all seen the same trailers and promo materials for it. I’m unconvinced of its chances, but there’s so much early support for it that I can’t help but wonder what I’m missing. Help me understand! 

    I suspect the support for Johnny Depp stems from his effort to de-glamorize for the role of gangster Whitey Bulger. When an actor sacrifices good looks, it is frequently interpreted as a serious commitment to the role. Such efforts worked successfully for Oscar winners Robert De Niro in Raging Bull and Charlize Theron in Monster. Depp has aged his appearance and shaved part of his head to appear balding. Of course the shaved head didn’t help Bette Davis nab a nomination for The Virgin Queen.

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    TerenceFletcher
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    #193022

    Based on a true story, physical transformation, biopic, mob movie, potential comeback narrative for its star (who is a past Oscar nominee), the trailer got a lot of buzz, and the director has won Best Actor for his lead once already. As long as it does not disappoint in quality a multitude the factors the Academy loves to award are there. Plus I just have a hunch they could award Depp and leave DiCaprio emptyhanded once again.

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    DamianWayne
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    #193023

    Probably because its the first Depp movie in who knows how long that actually looks watchable.

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    manakamana
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    #193024

    I don’t know, but Depp’s makeup job makes him look more like Dracula than Whitey Bulger. 

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    PJ Edwards
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    #193025

    WB, good release date, star in transformative role

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    AviChristiaans
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    #193026

    Could be the “Nightcrawler” of this year. Won’t be surprised if it garners a few SAG nominations this year. It will be the first high profile Oscar contender in theatres.

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