What is the last-minute change you will make to your Oscar predictions?

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  • Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #173260

    Mine will be:

    Sound Mixing: The Imitation Game
    Visual Effects: X-Men

    I’ll add more if I think of them… 

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #173262

    American sniper into BP

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #173263

    I have a bit of a surprise prediction.

    What do you think of Night at the Museum 3 making it in for Visual Effects as a total shock. Like Hereafter in 2010? 

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    dude
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    #173264

    Bradley Cooper BA, Carrell BSA

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    Jason Travis
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    #173265

    I added Bradley Cooper into Best Actor (dropped David Oyelowo, which is very risky). But with such a crowed lineup, there are going to be snubs.

    BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS
    Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
    Michael Keaton (Birdman)
    Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything

    There’s also the question of whether or not Timothy Spall gets in for his gritty, very personalized role in Mr. Turner. Mike Leigh is one of our most unqiue artists in the market. I have the film getting in for Original Screenplay. Is that consolation enough, or will the academy also cite National Society of Film Critics and Cannes Film Festival champion Spall too? 

    I can’t see Steve Carrell making it, sorry. It just seems a little too out there- maybe it’s that I didn’t get to see Foxcatcher yet (it’s the only main contender I have yet to screen). But I just have to go with my instinct, which is sometimes right, sometimes not.

    I think Jake Gyllenhaal is def IN. The performance is SO creepy and edgy, I couldn’t see voters not going for it.

    Cumberbatch is interesting because he’s sort of in the middle- but it’s a naunced and balanced performance, and the movie is probably going to do well nomination morning.

    My favorite, Redmayne, is competing with Keaton- who was okay but I loathed the movie.  

    Cooper delivers his finest work to date. It’s focused and rural- I loved it. I wish the screenplay alloted for more of his home scenes, and that his wife (Sienna Miller) wasn’t underwritten. The movie deserved better writing with the domestic scenes, but the war scenes were outstanding. Cooper is my wildcard, because David Oyelowo is serious business as Martin Luther King, Jr. But I don’t know how well Selma is going to do. It keeps missing where it should show up (Producers Guild was very telling). Is this because of lack of screeners, or are we being stubborn? Perhaps folks just don’t think it’s one of the year’s best- which is odd, since 2014 was weak. 

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
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    Filmatelist
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    #173266

    Mine will be:

    Visual Effects: X-Men

    That will certainly set a record: the 7th installment in a movie franchise being the first to get an Oscar nomination.   

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #173267

    I added Bradley Cooper into Best Actor (dropped David Oyelowo, which is very risky). But with such a crowed lineup, there are going to be snubs.

    BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS
    Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
    Michael Keaton (Birdman)
    Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything

    There’s also the question of whether or not Timothy Spall gets in for his gritty, very personalized role in Mr. Turner. Mike Leigh is one of our most unqiue artists in the market. I have the film getting in for Original Screenplay. Is that consolation enough, or will the academy also cite National Society of Film Critics and Cannes Film Festival champion Spall too? 

    I can’t see Steve Carrell making it, sorry. It just seems a little too out there- maybe it’s that I didn’t get to see Foxcatcher yet (it’s the only main contender I have yet to screen). But I just have to go with my instinct, which is sometimes right, sometimes not.

    I think Jake Gyllenhaal is def IN. The performance is SO creepy and edgy, I couldn’t see voters not going for it.

    Cumberbatch is interesting because he’s sort of in the middle- but it’s a naunced and balanced performance, and the movie is probably going to do well nomination morning.

    My favorite, Redmayne, is competing with Keaton- who was okay but I loathed the movie.  

    Cooper delivers his finest work to date. It’s focused and rural- I loved it. I wish the screenplay alloted for more of his home scenes, and that his wife (Sienna Miller) wasn’t underwritten. The movie deserved better writing with the domestic scenes, but the war scenes were outstanding. Cooper is my wildcard, because David Oyelowo is serious business as Martin Luther King, Jr. But I don’t know how well Selma is going to do. It keeps missing where it should show up (Producers Guild was very telling). Is this because of lack of screeners, or are we being stubborn? Perhaps folks just don’t think it’s one of the year’s best- which is odd, since 2014 was weak. 

    not Cooper it’s going to be Finnes.

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    DominicCobb
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    #173268

    I need to make room for American Sniper in BP and see how that affects the other categories. I thought that film was out at the Oscars for sure. But a DGA nom? What are the chances a movie gets a DGA nom and doesn’t get in for pic? Still don’t know about director. Gonna have to do a lot of fiddling.

    Also, what are Selma’s actual chances? Who knows really.

    And then there’s Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and Nightcrawler who could all easily make the BP cut but could also all end up snubbed. And how many additional noms will they get? Who knows. Tough times in prediction land. 

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    M
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    #173269

    I’m not changing anything. For better or worse. Getting the predictions just right across the board is not satisfying. The unexpected long shot here or there is what makes this whole thing exciting.

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    Ghost
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    #173270

    I’m not going to change much, but I’m still unsure of the 5th spot for Supporting Actor. I have Wilkinson right now, but who knows what could happen. Might add American Sniper into a few categories too.

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    GusCruz
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    #173271

    Lego Movie gets snubbed. I’m between Wild and Theory of Everything for the fifth slot in Adapted Screenplay. Also, I’m not sold on Moore-Pike-Reese-Jones-Jennifer as the Best Actress lineup

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    Emmys2011
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    #173272

    Did them this morning:

    1. American Sniper for best picture. I have 10 films cause I don´t know if I´ll bump this one or Selma.

    2. Oyelowo out, Finnes in

    3. Carrell for supporting actor

    My very last minute will be in best actress. I have Cotillard, but only because I´ve never believed in Adams, and I feel doubtful about Aniston going all the way. 

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    GusCruz
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    #173273

    I agree with Emmys2011 on Carell in Supporting

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    Anonymous
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    #173274

    I didn’t see why all this fuss about Selma happened.
    Yes, it had the potential, but it didn’t deliver.
    When the guilds started announcing the nominations, I thought naturally the omissions was due to lack of screeners.
    My Oscar predictions had just 3 nominations for ‘Selma’, for Directing, Lead Actor & Original Song (Yes, I had the courage to take it out of contention in the Best Picture race. Even after all the campaigning.)
    But now, the BAFTAs and the DGAs announced the nominees and the snub here can’t be reasoned by a lack of screeners, so I realized that the guilds at least are in the same page as me.
    I took off Ava DuVernay from Directing. (Sorry, ladies, neither of the main two women in the Directing branch this year delivered what was talked about, we overestimated their capabilities.) I, instead, put in the category Damien Chazelle, who, didn’t get a DGA nomination either, but the film overall has stronger support.
    I am on the verge of taking out David Oyelowo too and let the film rest with a single, very deserving, nomination, and probably, win.
    But I honestly don’t know who could fill the spot.
    I predicted:

    • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory Of Everything
    • Michael Keaton, Birdman
    • Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
    • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game 

    I put Carrell in supporting, so he is out. There is some overlap on the voters of BAFTAs and Oscars, so the wave of support for Carrell in supporting sure didn’t appear suddenly. Maybe there is some underground talking and campaigning since his decline that we haven’t heard of.
    Timothy Spall is a longshot, so I am torn between keeping Oyelowo, trading him for Fiennes, Cooper or Teller, all of whom could jump on the bandwagon of the constantly increasing support for their films (Less for American Sniper, but his performance is noted by many.)
    Eventually, I switched Oyelowo for Bradley Cooper(‘s performance of a lifetime.).
    Other than that, this is not a last-minute change but I thought I could say it, is I took off Meryl from Best Supporting Actress. Enough already. She got the nomination last year for a pretty average film (except for Julia Roberts.). She is probably getting in this year too, but I’d rather lose my points with pride by sticking to my guns with the formidable Rene Russo & Jessica Chastain, rather than go with the mass for a performance that I didn’t even like. Sorry, Meryl. 

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    Anonymous
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    #173275

    I also changed my Sound Mixing predictions, switching Fury, with American Sniper, as well as switching Unbroken with American Sniper in the Best Picture category. In general, I have a last-minute appreciation for American Sniper.

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