December 27, 2014 at 2:14 pm #170150
Even if you don’t think a film/a performance in particular has much of a nomination chance, is there anything you think is a lot closer to making an upset on nomination morning than everyone else is giving it credit for/ If so, why, and how could it get in?December 27, 2014 at 2:45 pm #170152
I really hope that Tilda Swinton gets nominated. She is overdue for a second nomination, and her performance in Snowpiercer was beyond brilliantDecember 27, 2014 at 2:53 pm #170153
A Most Violent YEar, Nightcrawler, and Mr. Turner for best pictureDecember 27, 2014 at 2:57 pm #170154
I think people are vastly underestimating Foxcatcher. While I don’t think it has a shot at winning anything outside of Makeup, this could end up being like Nebraska and have a surprise Director nomination.December 27, 2014 at 3:01 pm #170155
December 27, 2014 at 3:10 pm #170156
- Steve Carell. Stop doubting him. He’s in before all the Oyelowos and Spalls you keep mentioning. In my opinion he’s as much of a lock as Keaton, Cumberbatch and Redmayne.
- Jake Gyllenhaal will be nominated instead of David Oyelowo. I never had a good feeling about Selma and I think it’s being overhyped by internet boards and irrelevant and small critics groups. I’m probably/most likely wrong though but right now I think Gyllenhaal is our fifth Best Actor nominee.
Mike Leigh. He’s been nominated 7 times, has yet to win and Mr. Turner has been widely cited as his valedictory. He should be a lock for a screenplay nomination and competetive for a nod from the director’s branch…December 27, 2014 at 3:49 pm #170157
1. Marion Cotillard- she is an overwhelming critics favorite and could easily be this year’s Emmanuelle Riva.
2. Whiplash- Even though JK Simmons is a strong BSA frontrunner, I could see his film being this year’s “Beasts of the Southern Wild”.
3. Inherent Vice- It did pick up a few Screenplay wins and from what I’ve heard, the AMPS thought Josh Brolin was one of the best things about it. I’m expecting him to get in over Robert Duvall, who, unlike Brolin, hasn’t picked up heat from critics.
4. Laura Dern- She’s going along with Witherspoon on the campaign trail and has a pretty baity role (suffering mom dying from cancer). But this is a nomination I would love to see happen.December 27, 2014 at 4:02 pm #170158
Mike Leigh is definitely a lock for Screenplay. If he can get in for stuff like Happy-Go-Lucky and Another Year, there’s no reason he wouldn’t get nominated for Mr. Turner. Director is very much in the realm of possibility as well, especially with how popularly it’ll play with the British block and it just seeing its release now (US BO numbers are Leigh’s best to date), but I mentioned in another thread the underdog most aren’t considering is Pawel Pawlikowski for Ida. Foreign directors of visually striking films have gotten into this category before, and I think all directors have to do is list the film on their ballots (not the names).
I don’t think there’s room for much upset in Actor: The four main guys, Carell, Gyllenhaal, and Spall would all be unsurprising. I don’t think there’s much space for an outside spoiler. In Actress I think Marion could break through, but again I don’t think that would necessarily be out of “nowhere.”
Supporting is where I think the crazy stuff could happen. Chastain isn’t that strong an alternative and I don’t see much evidence that people are watching AMVY or are all that taken by her in it, and Ejogo’s role just seems too small. Tilda got the BFCA mention and could get BAFTA help as well, and it would be great to see both her and Marion finally return to the Oscars. In Supporting Actor, it just seems like it’s ripe for a few surprise openings. I’d be more confident in Brolin if I didn’t figure voters were turning off their Vice screeners half-way through. If Nightcrawler is as popular as precursors suggest, I think Riz Ahmed would be a really easy name to write down. But sadly, for whatever reason, his own distributor isn’t even listing him in their FYCs.December 27, 2014 at 4:49 pm #170159
Remember when City Of God ended up shocking everybody with four Oscar nominations even though it came out the year before but was ruled ineligible?
What if Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue is The Warmest Color ends up with that fifth Best Actress slot?December 27, 2014 at 4:54 pm #170160
^ Can’t happen because Blue is the Warmest Color had a 2013 US release and was eligible for categories outside of Foreign Language Film.December 27, 2014 at 5:38 pm #170161
A Most Violent Year. I’ve seen the film – I actually found it quite Academy-friendly and I can’t imagine any Oscar voter who actually watches it not putting it on their Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress (at least) ballots.December 27, 2014 at 6:07 pm #170162
If I can answer my own question in this thread…
Granted, I don’t think he will in the locked-up climate that Best Actor exists in, but I think the possibility of an Ellar Coltrane upset in that fifth slot for Boyhood is a lot more possible than people are giving it credit for. If the Academy really does love, and I mean love the film, then he’s an easy name to fill out on the nomination ballot.December 27, 2014 at 6:13 pm #170163
Tom Hardy in Locke. Is Essie Davis in The Babadook really excluded because the film was released on VOD? Shame, because that was the best performance by an actress this year.December 27, 2014 at 6:39 pm #170164
I think A most violent year will shock people on nomination day. Chastain is pretty much expected, however I think people are underestimating it in leading actor, screenplay, picture, and cinematography.