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WHAT 'TEALEAVES' ARE YOU USING TO PREDICT BEST PICTURE RIGHT NOW?

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  • TVFan365
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    #1202439741

    How would you guys rank Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri based on which one you liked the most to least?

    I feel like I am the only one who would rank it:

    1. Get Out
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    3. Lady Bird.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  TVFan365.
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    CanadianFan
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    #1202439744

    1. Three Billboards (one of the best films of the past 5 years and easily #1 for 2017)
    2. Lady Bird (very good, probably top ten of the year)
    3. Get Out (pretty good, maybe top twenty to twenty-five)

    The obvious precedent for a “divisive” film winning BP is Birdman vs. Boyhood.

    Birdman (91% RT, 8.5 rating, 88 MC) vs. Boyhood (97% RT, 9.2 rating, 100 MC)

    3B (93% RT, 8.6 rating, 87 MC) vs. Lady Bird (99% RT, 8.8 rating, 94 MC)

    The industry is going to break for 3B. It’s more important as it speaks to issues of sexual assault.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  CanadianFan.
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    Honey
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    #1202439792

    So I looked at the best director/screenplays/best picture since 1990

    there has never been a year where all 5 directors are for original screenplay BP nominees (which seems like what people here are predicting with Nolan/del toro/Spielberg/gerwig/peele/Gerwig)so at least one of them is getting snubbed for an adapted screenplay BP nominee (which right now looks like CMBYN, since Mudbound missed BP at Gotham/IFP/AFI/NBR/CC/GG) unless Ridley Scott/All the Money in the World is that amazing. Or there’s some big resurgence with Disaster Artist or Molly’s Game lol.

    there has also never been a year where all 5 screenplay nominees are non-BP. So someone in adapted screenplay will be a BP nominee.

    Only Chicago won BP without winning director or screenplay since 1990. (Titanic/the Artist won director) And Gerwig looks like a bigger threat to win screenplay and Nolan/Del Toro for Director.

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    Miles
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    #1202439795

    So I looked at the best director/screenplays/best picture since 1990

    there has never been a year where all 5 directors are for original screenplay BP nominees (which seems like what people here are predicting with Nolan/del toro/Spielberg/gerwig/peele/Gerwig)so at least one of them is getting snubbed for an adapted screenplay BP nominee (which right now looks like CMBYN, since Mudbound missed BP at Gotham/IFP/AFI/NBR/CC/GG) unless Ridley Scott/All the Money in the World is that amazing. Or there’s some big resurgence with Disaster Artist or Molly’s Game lol.

    there has also never been a year where all 5 screenplay nominees are non-BP. So someone in adapted screenplay will be a BP nominee.

    Only Chicago won BP without winning director or screenplay since 1990. (Titanic/the Artist won director) And Gerwig looks like a bigger threat to win screenplay and Nolan/Del Toro for Director.

    To address your stats:

    1. I think Guadagnino bumps Spielberg out of Director leaving Del Toro, Nolan, Gerwig, McDonaugh and Guadagnino.

    2. Call Me By Your Name will be a Best Picture nominee

    3. 3B and Lady Bird both lose Director to del Toro, one of them wins Screenplay. Whichever wins Screenplay wins Picture (leaning towards 3B)

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    AviChristiaans
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    #1202439826

    Steak eaters. The men. Which film do you think the steak eaters of the academy will champion?

    That’s the film with the most broad support.

    Being universally liked on Rotten Tomaties and Twitter doesn’t equal broad support. As The Social Network and Boyhood has proven.

    You have to appeal to the entire Academy voting block. Not just to a certain group. That’s why so many male heavy films have won Best Picture consecutively.

    Think of how the steak eaters in the academy will rank their Top 5.

    Think of how the traditional old school academy members rank their Top 5.

    The men of the Academy. The women. The young. The old.

    Moonlight checked off all those boxes. Spotlight. Birdman. Argo. 12 Years a Slave. All appealed to those voters.

    Which film do you think will be ranked higher on the preferential ballot by those voters?

    Lady Bird? Really?

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    Teridax
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    #1202439850

    GG Director stat is certainly impressive in that Braveheart won Best Director and nothing else at the Globes. The film goes on to win Best Picture (despite the SAG ensemble snub).

    The only reason the GG Director tealeaf feels off to me this year is because they nominated Ridley Scott. Maybe All the Money in the World is that good. But I think they felt compelled to nominate it because they got a private screening of a rough cut. It’s like they wanted to brag that they saw it first. It was too good of a story to pass up for journalists, PR for the show, to nominate the movie because of the whole Kevin Spacey controversy. I think there should be a rule that you can’t nominate a film off a rough cut. A lot can change good or bad before picture lock.

    I’m curious who would have gotten nominated in Ridley’s place.

    Judging by the Picture, Writing, and 2 acting nods for Lady Bird, I’d bet everything that Lady Bird came in a solid 6th place for Directing at the Globes. Ridley Scott got in both because the HFPA felt flattered that they were the first ones to see the Spacey-less ATMITW and because of name recognition for a legendary director like Scott himself. I’m the same as you on the Globe Director stat being off this year.

    Plus, SAG Ensemble was always going to matter more as an Oscar predictor because you have one or maybe 2 members of HFPA who are also Academy voters, and obviously a lot more SAG voters who are also Oscar voters. The greater overlap in voters between SAG and the Oscars makes a big difference as evidenced by the Ensemble stat.

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    Teridax
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    #1202439851

    1. Three Billboards (one of the best films of the past 5 years and easily #1 for 2017)
    2. Lady Bird (very good, probably top ten of the year)
    3. Get Out (pretty good, maybe top twenty to twenty-five)

    The obvious precedent for a “divisive” film winning BP is Birdman vs. Boyhood.

    Birdman (91% RT, 8.5 rating, 88 MC) vs. Boyhood (97% RT, 9.2 rating, 100 MC)

    3B (93% RT, 8.6 rating, 87 MC) vs. Lady Bird (99% RT, 8.8 rating, 94 MC)

    The industry is going to break for 3B. It’s more important as it speaks to issues of sexual assault.

    Not arguing here, but Three Billboards doesn’t speak to issues of sexual assault anymore than The Emoji Movie speaks to issues of racism.

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    CanadianFan
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    #1202439881

    It must be hard seeing your *lock* BP go down.

    “I have been saying that Get Out is a lock to win Best Picture at the Oscars for at least a couple months now. I’ll keep saying it after it gets nominated by the Spirits, PGA, DGA, Globes, Bafta, and wins most if not all of those awards, not to mention some critics groups wins.”

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    AnDres Gtz
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    #1202439923

    The film that gets nominated for SAG, DGA and PGA (it doesn’t matter if it wins or looses), gets nominated at Oscars for best editing and best screenplay (winning the last one, preferably).

    At this moment, we’re on the first stage, only three films remain.
    We’ll have to wait until January 3rd for ACE nominations & 4th for WGA nominations as well, so we can get an idea of who can get nominated at Oscars. Lady Bird seems particularly vulnerable at ACE.

    Then, January 5th for the PGA nominations, which shouldn’t be a problem for these 3 films.
    January 10th is the most decisive, since is DGA and we have to see if Get Out and/or Lady Bird can make the cut; both films can be seen as not so much of a directorial achievement. (Golden Globes proved it).

    Right now I would bet on Three Billboards.

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    Teridax
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    #1202439926

    It must be hard seeing your *lock* BP go down.

    “I have been saying that Get Out is a lock to win Best Picture at the Oscars for at least a couple months now. I’ll keep saying it after it gets nominated by the Spirits, PGA, DGA, Globes, Bafta, and wins most if not all of those awards, not to mention some critics groups wins.”

    Get Out has not gone down LOL! Get over it, dude. As far as winning Best Picture, Call Me By Your Name is down. The Florida Project and Dunkirk are both down. Get Out didn’t just get Ensemble, even Daniel Kaluuya got nominated for SAG, and the Globe for good measure.

    I believe Get Out will win nothing at the Globes, with Lady Bird winning Picture and Franco winning Actor. That shouldn’t hurt Get Out that badly, since The Hurt Locker and Spotlight also got shut out in wins by the HFPA and still went on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.

    Get Out may have under-performed with the Globes, but it still got what it needed to with SAG to keep it in the Best Picture Oscar race as a serious potential spoiler contender.

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    Teridax
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    #1202439930

    The film that gets nominated for SAG, DGA and PGA (it doesn’t matter if it wins or looses), gets nominated at Oscars for best editing and best screenplay (winning the last one, preferably).

    At this moment, we’re on the first stage, only three films remain.
    We’ll have to wait until January 3rd for ACE nominations & 4th for WGA nominations as well, so we can get an idea of who can get nominated at Oscars. Lady Bird seems particularly vulnerable at ACE.

    Then, January 5th for the PGA nominations, which shouldn’t be a problem for these 3 films.
    January 10th is the most decisive, since is DGA and we have to see if Get Out and/or Lady Bird can make the cut; both films can be seen as not so much of a directorial achievement. (Golden Globes proved it).

    Right now I would bet on Three Billboards.

    Lady Bird’s Editing was one of the best parts of the movies, no shot or scene went on any longer than it needed to, thus keeping my attention consistently invested in the film. Even if it does not win at ACE Eddie, it most certainly will be nominated.

    The Golden Globes proved nothing about any movies being seen more or less as directorial achievements since they nominated / name-checked Ridley Scott for a rough cut of a film. Peele also won Directing at Gotham and was nominated at the Independent Spirit Awards, even though Gerwig was tragically snubbed at the Spirits as well.

    I think Lady Bird weirdly might have an even better chance at winning Best Picture at the Oscars if (lord forbid!) the directors branch snubs Gerwig, due to the massive backlash that would inevitably occur against the Academy for doing so, just like what happened with Argo a few years ago, which coincidentally also happened to be helmed by an actor turned director.

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    Teridax
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    #1202439933

    How would you guys rank Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri based on which one you liked the most to least?

    I feel like I am the only one who would rank it:

    1. Get Out
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    3. Lady Bird.

    Lady Bird is my #1 favorite film of the entire year.

    Get Out is my #2 favorite film of the entire year.

    Three Billboards I hated so much that I am genuinely considering it for Razzie write-in votes on my nominating ballot. It was that godawful of a trainwreck in my opinion, I assure you that is no exaggeration on my part, even though I know many will strongly disagree.

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    Paul Hardister
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    #1202439947

    Regarding the steak eater theory, interesting side note, Tom O’Neil on a recent podcast said that the men in the Academy don’t like that label mainly due to the fact that it was Harvey Weinstein that gave him that label.

    That aside, it is certainly an important factor to think about. With that in mind, why didn’t something like Hell or High Water win then? Or Mad Max? Wouldn’t a steak eater vote Moneyball over The Artist? Gangs of New York over Chicago?

    Last question, couldn’t something like Get Out appeal to steak eaters as well?

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    Hoster1
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    #1202439951

    Lady Bird’s Editing was one of the best parts of the movies, no shot or scene went on any longer than it needed to, thus keeping my attention consistently invested in the film. Even if it does not win at ACE Eddie, it most certainly will be nominated.

    I’m not sure about that. I mean evan Birdman with it’s baity editing was snubbed when it lost Eddie to the Grand Budapest Hotel.  So, I don’t think both Get Out and Lady Bird will be nominated (unless Get Out will be placed in drama a la The Martian).

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  Hoster1.
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    Teridax
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    #1202439970

    Lady Bird’s Editing was one of the best parts of the movies, no shot or scene went on any longer than it needed to, thus keeping my attention consistently invested in the film. Even if it does not win at ACE Eddie, it most certainly will be nominated.

    I’m not sure about that. I mean evan Birdman with it’s baity editing was snubbed when it lost Eddie to the Grand Budapest Hotel. So, I don’t think both Get Out and Lady Bird will be nominated (unless Get Out will be placed in drama a la The Martian).

    I think both Lady Bird and Get Out are safe to be Editing nominees at both the Oscars and ACE Eddies. I was thinking back to that Oscar Editing snub for Birdman earlier today, and I believe the reason it was snubbed by the branch was simply due to the lack of edits in the movie itself. The editors looked at that film and thought, “where’s the editing? Not enough editing, I’m not voting for it.” Don’t forget they also nominated Boyhood in Editing that same year, so they will nominate movies that don’t have a TON of edits (Mad Max: Fury Road, Argo, Disney Wars: The Force Awakens, etc.) but enough that they can feel cool with voting for it. Lady Bird seems to fit that description perfectly.

    Between the 2, I think Get Out is probably safer for an Editing Oscar nod at this point, simply due to it getting in Editing at the Spirit Awards over Lady Bird.

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