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WHAT 'TEALEAVES' ARE YOU USING TO PREDICT BEST PICTURE RIGHT NOW?

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  • Hoster1
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    #1202439989

    I think both Lady Bird and Get Out are safe to be Editing nominees at both the Oscars and ACE Eddies. I was thinking back to that Oscar Editing snub for Birdman earlier today, and I believe the reason it was snubbed by the branch was simply due to the lack of edits in the movie itself. The editors looked at that film and thought, “where’s the editing? Not enough editing, I’m not voting for it.” Don’t forget they also nominated Boyhood in Editing that same year, so they will nominate movies that don’t have a TON of edits (Mad Max: Fury Road, Argo, Disney Wars: The Force Awakens, etc.) but enough that they can feel cool with voting for it. Lady Bird seems to fit that description perfectly. Between the 2, I think Get Out is probably safer for an Editing Oscar nod at this point, simply due to it getting in Editing at the Spirit Awards over Lady Bird.

    Actually NONE of the films that were placed in comedy/musical category there weren’t even nominated for Best Editing without winning Eddie, since they have separated dramas and comedies i.e. Birdman, The Wolf of Wall Street, Nebraska, Juno or Little Miss Sunshine.

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    Foolio
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    #1202439998

    My top five tealeaves right now (so DGA and the like aren’t included yet):

    1 Major precursors (namely SAG, also Globes)
    3 Less major precursors (Spirits and even Satellites)
    3 Critics’ awards and critical success (Tomatometer, Metacritic)
    4 Box office success and longevity
    5 Intuition (a seriously underrated and underused tealeaf in general)

    According to all five, Get Out should not be ruled out at all.

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    sofan
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    #1202440255

    I think the Oscar race is whittled down to 2 films, and we still need DGA and the Best Editing nominations to verify! LADY BIRD & THREE BILLBOARDS 1) both films got nominated for Best Screenplay at the GG’s (the last 12 Oscar winners were nominated) 2) both got the SAG Ensemble nomination (every Best Picture winner for the last 21 years has got this) 3) both received GG nominations for Best Picture (the last movie to win the Oscar while being snubbed here was CRASH in 2005).

    And there hasn’t been a female-led BP winner since 1983, therefore Get Out wins by default.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by  sofan.
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    Sagand
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    #1202440274

    And there hasn’t been a female-led BP winner since 1983, therefore Get Out wins by default.

    Million Dollar Baby? Chicago? Out of Africa?

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    GusCruz
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    #1202440303

    I think Get Out wins if 1) Peele gets in at DGA 2) the film guarantees the Editing nod (which is very likely) and 3) this one is very subjective, but it needs to maintain a certain position as the underdog, which losing the Globe to Lady Bird might do. The campaign is so good at this point that I totally see it winning PGA, WGA and maybe even SAG, making it a more than solid contender.

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    sofan
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    #1202440354

    Million Dollar Baby? Chicago? Out of Africa?

    Clint Eastwood. Richard Gere. Robert Redford.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #1202440366

    Steak eaters. The men. Which film do you think the steak eaters of the academy will champion?

    That’s the film with the most broad support.

    Being universally liked on Rotten Tomaties and Twitter doesn’t equal broad support. As The Social Network and Boyhood has proven.

    You have to appeal to the entire Academy voting block. Not just to a certain group. That’s why so many male heavy films have won Best Picture consecutively.

    Think of how the steak eaters in the academy will rank their Top 5.

    Think of how the traditional old school academy members rank their Top 5.

    The men of the Academy. The women. The young. The old.

    Moonlight checked off all those boxes. Spotlight. Birdman. Argo. 12 Years a Slave. All appealed to those voters.

    Which film do you think will be ranked higher on the preferential ballot by those voters?

    Lady Bird? Really?

    Ann Thompson did a report about this. The steak eaters hated The Post since they were getting preached at. They didn’t like Shape of Water because I guess Sally Hawkins gets naked. They didn’t like Jolie’s foreign film.

    But they did like Dunkirk and LADY BIRD.

    http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2017/12/steak-eaters-arent-relating-post/

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    pacinofan
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    #1202440378

    Steak eaters. The men. Which film do you think the steak eaters of the academy will champion?

    That’s the film with the most broad support.

    Being universally liked on Rotten Tomaties and Twitter doesn’t equal broad support. As The Social Network and Boyhood has proven.

    You have to appeal to the entire Academy voting block. Not just to a certain group. That’s why so many male heavy films have won Best Picture consecutively.

    Think of how the steak eaters in the academy will rank their Top 5.

    Think of how the traditional old school academy members rank their Top 5.

    The men of the Academy. The women. The young. The old.

    Moonlight checked off all those boxes. Spotlight. Birdman. Argo. 12 Years a Slave. All appealed to those voters.

    Which film do you think will be ranked higher on the preferential ballot by those voters?

    Lady Bird? Really?

    How does “Moonlight” appeal to the manly, steak eating contingent of Oscar voters? I could see how “Dunkirk” would appeal to that group this year, but last year the most masculine film in competition was probably “Hell or High Water” rather than a film about gay identity amongst African American youths.

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    sofan
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    #1202440379

    But they did like Dunkirk and LADY BIRD.

    Nolan gets BD and Lady Bird gets BP, I’m fine with that.

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    Honey
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    #1202440415

    http://www.metacritic.com/feature/2017-film-awards-and-nominations-scorecard

    metacritics has been keeping track of the Nom and win counts for the movies so far.

    3b hasn’t won a single picture or director yet. So those cute audience awards havent translated to best picture picks…

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    Teridax
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    #1202440457

    But they did like Dunkirk and LADY BIRD.

    Nolan gets BD and Lady Bird gets BP, I’m fine with that.

    I wouldn’t be. I thought all the characters in Dunkirk were really bland honestly and in spite of how captivating on a visual level the movie was, I quickly got bored with the film because I didn’t have anyone to emotionally invest in. I feel like Greta Gerwig has really earned this, plus it would feel weird to see her film win 2 acting awards (because you know if it wins Picture then both Ronan and Metcalf will probably win) and Screenplay but not win Director, which would only be in all 90 years of the Oscar the 2nd time a woman has won that specific category.

    I know my dislike of Dunkirk is mostly unpopular (Nolan stans please don’t kill me!) but it’s not like I hated it or anything. It isn’t like Three Billboards, which I actually really hated. Dunkirk was meh to me and while I have come to accept it will get in for Best Picture at the Oscars, I’m still skeptical, DGA nod or not, that Nolan can make the cut with the Academy’s Directing branch. The exact same stans of his that were saying he was a lock to get nominated for Directing Inception are saying that now about Dunkirk. “But that was a science fiction film, the Oscars hate those and love WWII films like Dunkirk!” Yes, they love films about WWII, but obviously not ALL of them. Their anti-Nolan bias is real, deserved or not. Funny thing is, Dunkirk isn’t getting any of its actors nominated, the screenplay isn’t getting nominated, it isn’t going to make the cut with 2 of the major branches already. So, if Nolan gets snubbed by the directors branch then I won’t be surprised at all. The movie is so emotionally cold (as with all of his films) that it could just fall short of making the final 5. The competition of Directing this year cannot be underestimated.

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    Teridax
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    #1202440464

    I think the Oscar race is whittled down to 2 films, and we still need DGA and the Best Editing nominations to verify! LADY BIRD & THREE BILLBOARDS 1) both films got nominated for Best Screenplay at the GG’s (the last 12 Oscar winners were nominated) 2) both got the SAG Ensemble nomination (every Best Picture winner for the last 21 years has got this) 3) both received GG nominations for Best Picture (the last movie to win the Oscar while being snubbed here was CRASH in 2005).

    And there hasn’t been a female-led BP winner since 1983, therefore Get Out wins by default.

    There not being a female-led BP winner for so long probably will only want to make Academy voters cast their votes for it even more, to break that trend.

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    TVFan365
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    Out of Greta Gerwig, Martin McDonagh, and Jordan Peele, I feel like Peele is the most likely person to win an Oscar this March.

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    sofan
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    #1202440490

    I wouldn’t be. I thought all the characters in Dunkirk were really bland honestly and in spite of how captivating on a visual level the movie was, I quickly got bored with the film because I didn’t have anyone to emotionally invest in

    This is a wrong state of mind to enjoy movies, in MY opinion.

    I wasn’t expecting to invest in/connect to a character, and I didn’t. Because the movie’s main aim is not to have you invested in any character specifically but to show what a horrible situation they were in and how their survival came to be. But again, that is just my opinion.

    I feel like Greta Gerwig has really earned this, plus it would feel weird to see her film win 2 acting awards (because you know if it wins Picture then both Ronan and Metcalf will probably win) and Screenplay but not win Director, which would only be in all 90 years of the Oscar the 2nd time a woman has won that specific category.

    I don’t think so. No one really thinks of Lady Bird as a directorial achievement, it missing Globes was one of the biggest signs of this. And it is not winning both of those acting awards. I believe this could be either be a Moonlight-like situation where LB wins, BP, Screenplay, and an acting Oscar or completely like Spotlight, in which it wins BP and Screenplay.

    The exact same stans of his that were saying he was a lock to get nominated for Directing Inception are saying that now about Dunkirk. “But that was a science fiction film, the Oscars hate those and love WWII films like Dunkirk!” Yes, they love films about WWII, but obviously not ALL of them.

    And Dunkirk is not like most of the WWII films, it is actually a cool film (yes that is a Mean Girls reference, lol) and depicts a realistic situation and doesn’t expect you to only care about one character and one character only.

    The competition of Directing this year cannot be underestimated.

    I agree, it cannot be underestimated but some people, including you, overestimate some of the contenders’ chances. In this crowded race Nolan and Del Toro is still in the front by a huge distance, if one of them trips the other one wins but it would be a huge upset if both of them were to trip and lose. One of these men will be a Directing Oscar winner in less than 3 months, and that’s that on that.

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    Teridax
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    #1202440579

    @sofan “Because the movie’s main aim is not to have you invested in any character specifically but to show what a horrible situation they were in and how their survival came to be. But again, that is just my opinion.”

    I respect your right to your own opinion, but why would I care about their survival if I don’t have any characters with layered personalities I can relate to or at least empathize with? If Nolan wanted to just show the horrible situation and their survival then I think he should have made it a Documentary. Even in The Vietnam War Documentary miniseries by Ken Burns, the people being interviewed and even a lot of the people just being talked about were more interesting than the Dunkirk characters. I confess I started to zone out a little in the 2nd half of the movie. The dialogue seemed kind of hard to hear at times, and whenever I could hear it clearly it wasn’t impressive or even engaging in the slightest. Just my opinions.

    In your opinion, Dunkirk was a cool WWII film. But the Oscars aren’t always known for being “cool,” especially in regards to the cinema of Christopher Nolan.

    “No one really thinks of Lady Bird as a directorial achievement, it missing Globes was one of the biggest signs of this.”

    Lady Bird is absolutely seen by most everyone as a directorial achievement and like I pointed out already, it clearly came in 6th for Directing at the Globes, but Greta Gerwig wasn’t a big enough name-check. The Spirits have never been the biggest Gerwig supporters, so her snub there, while still being outrageous, isn’t that much of a surprise. Also, I hate having to repeat this, but once more I must point out that the Globes are NOT the industry, and they really don’t mean that much anymore other than providing the opportunity to see celebrities get drunk at a party.

    What I learned last year (among other things) from correctly calling Moonlight as the Best Picture winner, was not to give too much credence to precursors in general as reliable Oscar predictors. Just go with where the most passionately loved and least divisive film is. Right now, all the evidence points that being Lady Bird.

    Finally, just so we’re clear, Gerwig could totally be snubbed by this point in Directing, I’m not saying that isn’t possible. I still have her winning not only because of merit but because of pressure to award a second woman Best Director.

    Nolan will most definitely not win Directing if he does get nominated. Del Toro could though, I have him in 2nd or 3rd in my predictions in that Oscar category. If he wins the Globe and DGA then I will probably end up predicting him. But Metcalf is a sure thing to win Supporting Actress and Ronan feels close to a lock by this point, if not quite there yet. So, why wouldn’t they just check off Gerwig in Directing while they are checking off Lady Bird everywhere else?

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