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WHAT 'TEALEAVES' ARE YOU USING TO PREDICT BEST PICTURE RIGHT NOW?

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  • Gabe Guarin
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    #1202441202

    I now have Lady Bird winning Best Picture. But Guillermo del Toro will win Original Screenplay for The Shape of Water and Christopher Nolan will win for directing. I also now have Lady Bird being nominated for Editing since that’s essential for a Best Picture win. I have Lady Bird only winning two awards – Best Picture and Supporting Actress – just like Spotlight, which won Picture and Original Screenplay. We’re in for a crazy year.

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    GermanGuidanceSystem
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    #1202451819

    I have a question about what it means when your thread attracts a reply (from CitizenBlake) and 93 views, but is then removed from general view, with an inserted banner (visible to logged-in me) stating “This post awaits approval by forum moderator.”

    This happened over 2 weeks ago and that status has remained unchanged. My thread was a spin-off from this one, quoting from a post by Paul Hardister.

    My thread’s meandering title was / is: “Steak-eaters, Weinstein, Beef-kinis, Gaga, Terms of E, LB, 3BOEM … etc.” and it concluded with the following paragraphs:

    “It seems possible that next year (34 years later) a film centred on a mother-daughter relationship will once again be deemed the Best Film Oscar winner: either LB or 3BOEM.

    “I wonder which year will mark the year the Best Film Oscar is awarded to a film centred on women and also directed by, helmed by, shaped by a woman? And that that female director is also awarded the Best Director Oscar?

    “That year is probably many years away.”

    Obviously, these questions / thoughts weren’t the problem with my post, but I’m none the wiser what or where the issue was / is.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    #1202452005

    I personally think CMBYN would have had a better chance of winning if Moonlight had not won last year. Maybe last year best picture was about killing two birds with one stone 🙂 This is the year of the woman. Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards or The Post will win.

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by  Thomas Eagan.
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    LangeWeaver2
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    #1202452043

    Get Out (pretty much perfect screenplay, critical darling, scathing social commentary)

    The Post (National Board of Review, highly politically relevant, Spielberg/Streep/Hanks)

    Lady Bird (critical darling, feminist, great ensemble and screenplay, politically relevant and unique in portraying the lower middle class)

    3 Billboards (TIFF, big with UK and European groups, great ensemble, excellent screenplay)

    These to me are the top 4 most likely to win.  Dunkirk and Shape of Water could still be in it, but the former isn’t an actor’s movie and the latter is really weird)

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    ProfessorChaos
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    #1202452180

    @sofan
    Nolan will most definitely not win Directing if he does get nominated. Del Toro could though

    If Nolan finally gets his nomination, I don’t think it’s definite that he won’t win. Del Toro may benefit from being the director of the most-nominated film. I feel that could elevate him to front runner. But I think this is Nolan’s most accessible film, a major hit, and he’d be seen as overdue. If there isn’t a clear front runner, I believe it favors Nolan.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1202452187

    Is it possible that we could cling to the SAG Ensemble tealeaf and be proven wrong again this year?

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    Joe Burns
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    #1202452191

    Is it possible that we could cling to the SAG Ensemble tealeaf and be proven wrong again this year?

    Yes, The Shape Of Water or even Call Me By Your Name could win. I highly doubt The Shape Of Water will win though. I don’t know if it will be loved by enough of the broader Academy to prevail.

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    GermanGuidanceSystem
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    #1202452387

    42 Directors Pick Their Favorite Movies of 2017, Including Denis Villeneuve, Guillermo del Toro, and More

    http://www.indiewire.com/2017/12/directors-best-movies-tv-2017-guillermo-del-toro-denis-villeneuve-luca-guadagnino-1201911679/2/

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    MrGoodWood
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    #1202452441

    Get Out (pretty much perfect screenplay, critical darling, scathing social commentary)

    The Post (National Board of Review, highly politically relevant, Spielberg/Streep/Hanks)

    Lady Bird (critical darling, feminist, great ensemble and screenplay, politically relevant and unique in portraying the lower middle class)

    3 Billboards (TIFF, big with UK and European groups, great ensemble, excellent screenplay)

    These to me are the top 4 most likely to win. Dunkirk and Shape of Water could still be in it, but the former isn’t an actor’s movie and the latter is really weird)

    Yup, this post pretty much summarizes the race this year.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1202452480

    If the SAG Ensemble tealeaf is proven wrong for the first time in 22 years? Then what?

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    Nikhil
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    #1202452491

    Given the preferential ballot system, I do think that general likability plays very heavily into who actually wins at the end of the year. This would seem to favor ‘Lady Bird’ and ‘Get Out’. On the Indiewire list posted above by GermanGuidanceSystem, these two films appear in more Top 10s than any other- and I think this will be the trend for voters as well. While I think that ‘Three Billboards’ deserves the win, it may be too divisive and disliked by certain members of the academy (crude language, insensitive, less-satisfying conclusion for some). And, of course, we have ‘The Post’ which no one really knows what to do about, but its big names, timely manner, and NBR win make it hard to completely ignore.

    All this being said, the question I have is whether ‘Lady Bird’ can win without a screenplay win. On its best day it wins 4 Oscars: picture, actress, supporting actress, and screenplay. As of now, I think it loses actress (due to her age) and screenplay (I just think ‘Three Billboards’ has to win this- call it intuition). Is a sole supporting actress win enough to carry it over the finish line and nab best picture? Is there another film that only won a supporting oscar and best picture? Regardless, that feels awfully small to me- more so than ‘Spotlight’. And, what is ‘Get Out’ going to win? If ‘Three Billboards’ wins screenplay then that makes it even less likely than ‘Lady Bird’.

    What all this means for me is that Original Screenplay will be the critical award, making the WGA a very important “tea-leaf” in this bizarre race. If my hunch is correct and ‘Three Billboards’ takes screenplay at the Oscars, then it wins or ‘Lady Bird’ wins with only Supporting Actress and maybe Actress (which could be enough at three wins). As of now, I think that makes it a dead heat between ‘Three Billboards’ and ‘Lady Bird’ with my preference to the former out of nothing other than gut-feeling and personal choice. ‘Get Out’ can only spoil if it gets screenplay, and it is a more likely candidate than ‘The Post’ which also needs to win that award in my mind (Spielberg, Streep, Hanks, and Williams are all going home empty handed this year). Therefore:

    Likelihood of winning Best Picture
    1. ‘Three Billboards’
    2. ‘Lady Bird’ (close second, I could honestly flip a coin)
    3. ‘Get Out’ (dark horse)
    4. ‘The Post’ (darker horse)

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    Elazul
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    #1202460921

    So it’s Three Billboards… vs Lady Bird and the SAG ensemble rule is going to live another year?

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    DameAudrey
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    #1202460925

    Darling, I really think The Post is the best picture out of the likely nominees (second best of the year behind Wonder Wheel), but I have to choose between the decent Lady Bird and the atrocious 3 Billboards, I think it is pretty clear. Isn’t it?

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    Ed Francell Jr
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    #1202460987

    Dunkirk will win best picture in an “upset”. Mark my words . . .

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202461000

    Still sticking with the 4 big predictors:
    SAG Ensemble nomination
    PGA nomination
    DGA nomination
    Oscar screenplay nomination

    Only Lady Bird, Three Billboards, and Get Out will hit all 4.

    From there, it’s still anybody’s game.

    LADY BIRD:
    -less divisive than either other frontrunner, so less likely to have many low rankings on the preferential ballots.
    -strong overlap between Best Picture and Screenplay wins, and Gerwig could be awarded screenplay to make up for not winning director (the odds of this rise drastically if she’s snubbed from the director’s race altogether).
    –has tough battles in both actress categories due to Janney and McDormand. I think a BP win could happen even if it loses both categories, but it’s more likely to win at least one of the two.
    —it’s a coming of age teen comedy, which may make it easier for voters to dismiss it entirely.

    THREE BILLBOARDS:
    —moderately divisive, but has a good deal of passionate supporters. Can’t see many ranking it at the bottom’s of their ballots.
    —If it wins BP, it’s also taking Actress, Sup Actor, and Original Screenplay… leaving Lady Bird with a Boyhood-esque Sup Actress win (unless Janney snatches) and Get Out with nothing.

    GET OUT:
    —moderately divisive. has a strong base of passionate supporters, but may earn a good deal of lower rankings due to its genre / racism.
    —in order to win BP, it has to overcome Lady Bird and Three Billboards in Original Screenplay.
    –if Get Out wins BP, then it’s likely that all frontrunners take home a trophy (BP for GO, Actress/Sup Actor for TBOEM, Sup Actress for LB, Director for TSOW).

    There are only two other films that I believe are still in contention for the BP win.

    THE SHAPE OF WATER:
    –missed the SAG ensemble, but if there’s a predictive stat to be broken that’s the one, and this is the film most likely to do it. The fact that this film is the only one guaranteed 3 Oscar noms for acting should make up for the SAG snub, anyways.
    —most likely to perform similarly to Gravity or Life of Pi, winning Director and some tech awards, but missing out elsewhere. BUT there’s a longshot chance that the film earns a lot of middle-of-the-ballot rankings and ends up ahead of the more divisive frontrunners. Although I guess an interspecies love story is probably divisive, too, huh?

    CALL ME BY YOUR NAME:
    –like The Shape of Water, it missed the SAG Ensemble nomination. However, either this or Three Billboards will likely double up in Supporting Actor—and I think CMBYN could still be competitive for the BP win if Stuhlbarg and Hammer both land nominations.
    —on the other hand, if Luca gets snubbed by the DGA then CMBYN’s BP odds pretty much drop off the face of the Earth.
    —I’m including this in my top predictions mostly because 11/12 of the most recent Best Pictures won an Oscar for screenplay and CMBYN is basically guaranteed to win Adapted Screenplay, while the 4 other frontrunners are fighting it out in the other category.
    –the film is less divisive than Billboards, Get Out, or Shape of Water, which could earn it enough middle-of-the-ballot votes (plus a small contingent of passionate supporters with top two placements) to just manage a BP win.

    Dunkirk and The Post aren’t happening.

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