January 14, 2016 at 12:26 pm #209672
My personal list:
– Passionate nominees do happen. Laura Linney (“The Savages”) before, Marion Cotillard (“Two Days, One Night”) last year, and now Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”). There are performances you simply cannot ignore.
– Jennifer Lawrence is a powerhouse name by herself. She’s going to be nominated no matter what.
– Never ever doubt Cate Blanchett (“Carol”) or Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”) as serious Oscar contenders.
– Box office succes (“Star Wars”) & flops (“Steve Jobs”) have nothing to do with actual Oscar nominations.
– There are certain films which are too cool for bigger Oscar consideration: “Clouds of Sils Maria” “I Smile Back” “Ex Machina” and so on.
– If your country is small (so it’s not France), you don’t really have a chance for serious Oscar consideration other than Foreign Language Film: “Son of Saul”.
– The Academy is not going to reward a newcomer with two Oscar nominations a year: Alicia Vikandder (“The Danish Girl” and “Ex Machina”).
– Frauds (Rooney Mara “Carol” and Alicia Vikander “The Danish Girl”) are perfectly fine by the Academy.
– There are some legends who are no longer as popular as they were before once so they cannot be predicted as ‘sure bets’ anymore: Maggie Smith (“The Lady in the Van” and “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” earlier), Helen Mirren (“Hichcock” earlier and “Trumbo” & “Woman in Gold” this year) and Jane Fonda (“Youth”).
– You can be in a very popular BP contender, still, the Oscar nomination is not assured: Charlize Theron (“Mad Max: Fury Road”); Steve Carell (“The Big Short”) and Michael Keaton (“Spotlight”).
– The Academy doesn’t feel like they have snubbed Michael Keaton (“Spotlight”) last year. Even if he’s in a BP front runner, he has missed all precursors. I doubt that he has even came second last year.
– Oscar loves big comebacks: Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”), Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”).
– Meryl Streep (“Ricki and the Flash”) doesn’t get nominated for all her baity projects.
– If there are no roles for minorities, there are no minority acting nominees.January 14, 2016 at 1:26 pm #209674
Maggie Smith’s lack of interest in attending ceremonies may played a factor of her snub.
You have to play the game and CAMPAIGN hard ( see Gaga, Warren, etc.)January 14, 2016 at 6:15 pm #209675
How is Kate Winslet on a comeback?January 14, 2016 at 6:49 pm #209676
I really didn’t learn anything new this year.January 14, 2016 at 6:54 pm #209677
I wouldn’t call Ricki aand the Flash a baity project. She does a lot of comedies and summer films that help her box office appeal but don’t get her nominations. Ricki was one of those.January 14, 2016 at 8:05 pm #209678
One more: Feminine LBGT and no male protagonist means getting yourself a giant F-You from the Academy.