What would have been the 5 nominees for Picture if they had only 5 in 2012?

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  • Juni Zapoto
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    #1201875206

    Winner: Argo
    Nominees:

    Amour
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    So, what would have been the other 4?

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    james14
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    My best guesses on a 5-picture Best Picture lineup from 2009 – current

    2009
    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglorious Basterds
    Precious
    Up in the Air

    2010
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    2011
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    The Help
    Hugo
    Midnight in Paris

    2012
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    2013
    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Gravity
    Nebraska
    The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014
    American Sniper
    Birdman
    Boyhood
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    The Imitation Game

    2015
    The Big Short
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Martian
    The Revenant
    Spotlight

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1201875242

    Pretty easy to asume that Amour, Les Miserables and Beasts were there only because of the expanded category.

    My guess is that controversy and negative talk would’ve taken Zero Dark Thirty out. With Bigelow being left out, even more so. Django Unchained would be the other option to be left out.

    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

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    babypook
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    Silver Linings Playbook (barf)
    Amour (box office pariah)
    Life of Pi (for the “estorics”)
    Lincoln (wave that flag!)
    Beasts of The Southern Wild (!!!….thanks Harvey)

    No Argo……

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201875266

    I suspect…

    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (1979) – That Time Norma Rae Squashed Kermit

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    JB
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    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    ~ I’m kinda torn about Life of Pi v. Zero Dark Thirty, but I’m going with “ZDT” just by a hair.

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    Eddy Q
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    4 are obvious:

    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Argo was the clear favourite all along, the plucky directors branch notwithstanding. I don’t think I need to discuss Lincoln, but Life of Pi is interesting in that it received only one nomination fewer than Lincoln. It was essentially the Gravity of that year, although with less chance of actually winning Best Picture. It was a clear top 5 candidate, as was SLP which significantly over-performed in Oscar nominations, with surprise nods for supporting actress and editing. (Even David O. Russell’s directing nomination hadn’t seemed completely secure, as he’d missed out at DGA.)

    The no. 5 slot is trickier, though I’d almost completely rule out Amour and Django Unchained. In a field of 5, Amour would have been a classic example of the type of foreign-language film nominated for directing and writing, but not Best Picture. (Exceptions like Life Is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon usually receive craft noms.) Django’s surge of support came quite late in the game, and the first stage of Oscar voting was notably early that season. Plenty of films have won 2 Oscars in top categories without being nominated for Best Picture. Les Misérables is perhaps more likely, but even that missed important categories like directing, editing and cinematography, which is telling. It could have gone the way of Dreamgirls. That leaves Zero Dark Thirty and Beasts of the Southern Wild. I wouldn’t dismiss Beasts; it had a strong rooting factor, a surprise directing nom (more surprising than Haneke) and was the “little indie that could”. But Zero Dark Thirty had more industry support, and managed to overcome the surrounding controversy fairly well in the early stages of the season. The Bigelow snub I put down to the no. 1 art-house passion votes of Haneke and Zeitlin, as well as an element of Bigelow fatigue after the superficially similar The Hurt Locker. But that was only the directors branch, a relatively small group of the Academy. ZDT got pretty much everything else it needed, including precursor awards. I think it would’ve been our 5th nominee.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by  Eddy Q.
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    Alex Meyer
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    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Life Of Pi
    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty

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    Josh Ben-Ami
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    4 are obvious:

    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook

    ZDT got pretty much everything else it needed, including precursor awards. I think it would’ve been our 5th nominee.

    I agree with those four, definitely, but something tells me that the Academy would have gone for the more traditional Les Miserables.

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