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what year had the most shocks among the major categories?

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  • RobertPius
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    #214168

    I’d say 1988. Three of the four acting awards were unexpected: Geena Davis shockingly beat Sigourney Weaver, Kevin Kline beat the favored Martin Landau and Jodie Foster beat Glenn Close. 

    Any other years stand out as surprising years? 

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    RobertPius
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    #583979

    I’d say 1988. Three of the four acting awards were unexpected: Geena Davis shockingly beat Sigourney Weaver, Kevin Kline beat the favored Martin Landau and Jodie Foster beat Glenn Close. 

    Any other years stand out as surprising years? 

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    Monty
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    #214170

    How about 2003? 3 of 4 SAG winners, both WGA winners and DGA winner did not go on to win the Oscar.

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    seabel
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    #214171

    I’d say 1988. Three of the four acting awards were unexpected: Geena Davis shockingly beat Sigourney Weaver, Kevin Kline beat the favored Martin Landau and Jodie Foster beat Glenn Close. 

    Any other years stand out as surprising years? 

    Only Davis (And her movie was a BP Nominee, so that was better for her). Foster was very popular and won the Globe.

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    RobertPius
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    #214172

    [quote=”RobertPius”]I’d say 1988. Three of the four acting awards were unexpected: Geena Davis shockingly beat Sigourney Weaver, Kevin Kline beat the favored Martin Landau and Jodie Foster beat Glenn Close. 

    Any other years stand out as surprising years? 

    Only Davis (And her movie was a BP Nominee, so that was better for her). Foster was very popular and won the Globe.

    [/quote]

    Foster did have a lot of people predicting her but so did Close. I guess that wasn’t too surprising.  Kline was a shock though. He has said he almost didn’t go because he didn’t think he stood a chance. 

    Davis was the a shocker though. All the nominees were from Best Picture nominees so that didn’t really influence it.  

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    RobertPius
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    #214173

    How about 2003? 3 of 4 SAG winners, both WGA winners and DGA winner did not go on to win the Oscar.

    That was the Adrian Brody year right? That’s a good one.    

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    Andrew Carden
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    #214174

    1981 comes to mind – “Reds,” Meryl Streep and Joan Hackett were favored in Picture, Lead Actress and Supporting Actress and lost.

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    RobertPius
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    #214175

    What about 1973?

    Glenda Jackson was a shock. I think Jack Lemmon was too. What about Tatum? John Houseman?

    Wasn’t The Exorcist favored over The Sting?  

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    Daniel B.
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    #214176

    Here are some years that come to mind with multiple surprise wins in the major categories in recent memory:

    1998 – Shakespeare in Love, Roberto Benigni, Gwyneth Paltrow (not a lock), James Coburn, Judi Dench
    1999 – Hilary Swank (not a complete surprise), Michael Caine
    2000 – Gladiator, Russell Crowe, Marcia Gay Harden
    2001 – A Beautiful Mind/Ron Howard weren’t locks, while Denzel Washington, Halle Berry and Jim Broadbent weren’t the frontrunners.
    2002 – Roman Polanski, Adrien Brody
    2008 – Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton
    2012 – Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), although the latter wasn’t a complete surprise
    2014 – Not so many surprises, but more categories than usual that weren’t locked in: Birdman, Innaritu, Redmayne 

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    Boidiva02
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    #214177

    I feel like 2007 was something of a surprising year, at least in terms of nominations.  Prior to nominations, I don’t think many people were expecting Babel to be such a player in the races.   And it was something of a surprise that Dreamgirls wasn’t nominated for Best Picture; and that it didn’t get more acting nominations. Many had thought Jamie Foxx would get a nod.    

     

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #214178

    Of the years I actually remember and followed the race closely -> 2007.
    This was the one year when I took risks (as usually) and I was actually right in all four acting categories because both Actress and Supporting Actress were surprises. Cotillard won over Julie Christie who won nearly everything.
    That same year, Elizabeth: The Golden Age was a shocker in costume design.
    Sweeney Todd won art direction over favorite There Will Be Blood.
    The Golden Compass was a true shocker in visual effects.
    Taxi to the Dark Side was a real surprise in documentary.

    But 2002 was a shocker year.
    Directing was an upset. Polanski won without winning the DGA. He wasn’t even a Globe nominee. Being a kid with no real knowledge about the Oscars (only the basics), I actually predicted that. Music
    Brody defeated Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson and he only had the NSFC. The Pianist in adapted screenplay was a shocker as well. It’s the only winner in the category (that I remember at least) that didn’t get a WGA nomination even though it was eligible and still won the Oscar. The Pianist is a film without a single guild victory and it won three of the top categories that year.
    Talk to Her wasn’t a shocker but it was probably a surprise.
    And as strange as it is, most pundits predicted Lilo & Stitch, even though Spirited Away was a lock. 
    But Eminem’s win in Song was a surprise.
    Frida for score was a surprise.
    Chicago for art direction was a minor suprise.
    Kidman and Chris Cooper were Meryl Streep situations. They weren’t real surprises, but in the end they weren’t the favorites going into the night.

    What about 2000?
    Marcia Gay Harden must have been unheard of. I mean, she was the precedent – the first actor to win without a SAG nomination. 
    Steven Soderbergh defeated Ang Lee, even though Ang had the strong combination of Globe, DGA, BAFTA and a film that seemed more popular. 
    Traffic in editing. 
    Almost Famous in original screenplay.
    Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in art direction.
    Gladiator in visual effects.

    But when I read about the Oscars, it’s 1981 people mention as the real shocker year. 

     

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #214179

    What about 1973?

    Glenda Jackson was a shock. I think Jack Lemmon was too. What about Tatum? John Houseman?

    Wasn’t The Exorcist favored over The Sting?  

    I have a theory about these years. I can’t be sure because all I use to judge are the awards/nominations.
    But a Globe win could have been very nice back then but must have meant very little in terms of Oscar chances.
    The DGA was the thing. The Sting had it. It also had two huge stars and the B.O. Oscar glory. 
    The filmsite Oscar section calls it “a foregone conclusion” of a win. 

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    Rev Scott
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    #214180

    1972 – “Caberet” was pretty much sweeping the night winning eight Oscars including Bob Fosse winning Best Director over Coppola. “The Godfather” at that point had only won adapted screenplay and there was only two categories left for it to win in.  It did eventually win Best Picture and Best Actor but, it wasn’t looking good as the night progressed and “Caberet” was cleaning up. Producer Albert Ruddy was sweating it to the end even making a comment in his acceptance speech saying “we were all getting a little nervous for a moment”. 

    1977 – Comedy night at the Oscars “Annie Hall”, Woody Allen, Richard Dreyfuss, and Diane Keaton. “Annie Hall” wins over female driven dramas “Julia” and “The Turninig Point” and of course the biggest movie of the year and most successful of all time “Star Wars”.  Allen wins Best Director over  hot newcomers George Lucas, and Steven Spielberg, veteran Herbert Ross and previous winner Fred Zinneman. Shirley MacLaine, Anne Bancroft, and Jane Fonda losing to Keaton in what would become one of the most iconic female characters in film history and of course seven time Oscar loser Richard Burton – thinking he won for a second when Stallone read “Richard……… Dreyfuss”.

     

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    Andrew Carden
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    #214181

    RE: 1973, it wasn’t really a year of upsets because, for the most part, there weren’t clear front-runners.

    “The Sting” was indeed all but a shoo-in – critically acclaimed, a box-office smash with two of the biggest and most respected stars of that time and, unlike “The Exorcist,” an uncontroversial crowd-pleaser. “Cries and Whispers” certainly had its boosters but was never a real threat for the win. “American Graffiti” and “A Touch of Class” were fluff.

    As for the acting categories, Houseman was the heavy favorite with no obvious alternative. The other three line-ups were really unsettled, though.

    Brando wasn’t winning after the stunt he pulled with “The Godfather” win. Nicholson and Pacino were hot and young and the critics’ favorites but there was a sense it wasn’t quite time to reward either. Redford, from what I understand, was actually viewed as something of a very soft front-runner because of the Academy’s affection for “The Sting.” “Save the Tiger” wasn’t all that acclaimed, but it was an atypically dreary, dramatic role for the usually sunny Lemmon and I think there was at least a little bit of interest for him to win a Lead prize to go along with the Supporting one. But it was definitely close.

    Jackson was definitely helped by the Academy’s love for “A Touch of Class.” Like Lead Actor, there wasn’t a clear front-runner. Jackson, Streisand and Woodward had already won, but Burstyn wasn’t winning for a borderline-Supporting role in a horror film and Mason was a total newbie on the scene in a film nobody much cared about. Jackson and Woodward seemed to have the edge going into Oscar night but there was no certainty there.

    As for Supporting Actress, Blair’s chances went down the tubes after it was revealed Mercedes McCambridge did the voice. Clark and Kahn had no chance at all. Sydney, a  an immensely respected, yet rarely recognized character actress who’d been working since the ’20s was the critics’ favorite and likely had the edge going into Oscar night, but Ryan O’Neal launched a famously aggressive behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign for his daughter. That no doubt played a role in her win, which many in the industry expressed skepticism about, given the lack of children winning before.

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