The 5-10 rule is still in effect and isn’t changing. They’ve already confirmed it.
Hateful Eight will get in. Tarantino has been on a roll with his past two films. People were worried Django wouldn’t make the cut but it did.
I think it will get in but maybe the other western (The Revenant) might do some damage to it. ( Hope not, Tarantino lover)
I would imagine, until there are more reports from it, that it should be considered a solid contender in at least Picture, Director, Screenplay, one or two acting nods (at least Samuel L. Jackson, and then maybe Kurt Russell or Jennifer Jason Leigh) and Cinematography.
But I don’t think either it or “The Revenant” will really do that much damage in major wins. I just don’t see the demographic of voters being that interested in these directorial visions of the genre. “True Grit” was probably more accessible than either of them will be, and Coens’ arguable return to form after their BP win, and it went 0-10. Would they really prefer them to something like “The Danish Girl,” given the social atmosphere, for example? Lots of people will try any excuse to undermine and underestimate it in favor of the more artsy choices for as long as they can, but I certainly don’t think so.
My prediction is that it’s going to be fucking awesome and I’m going to love it.