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When Precursors Don’t Matter:

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  • Logan
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    #58390


    I was looking up the past winners for the
    National Society of Film Critics, and I was surprised to see that in 1993, Ashley
    Judd was the runner-up for their Best Actress award (Ruby in Paradise). I was
    even more surprised to learn she was runner-up at the New York Film Critics
    Circle. Being a runner-up is certainly less important than winning, but even
    that doesn’t guarantee someone a nomination (Sally Hawkins is the most famous
    recent example because she won NS, NY and LA but wasn’t nominated in 2008).
    Since 2000, all of these people/films won awards from the most important critics
    groups and weren’t nominated for the Oscar:


     


    Best Picture:


    Yi Yi (NSFC)


    Mulholland Dr. (NSFC, NYFCC)


    Far from Heaven (NYFCC)


    About Schmidt (LAFCA)


    American Splendor (NSFC, LAFCA)


    Pan’s Labyrinth (NSFC)


    United 93 (NYFCC)


    Waltz with Bashir (NSFC)


    WALL·E (LAFCA)


    Melanchola (NSFC)


     


    NSFC: Six snubs


    NYFCC: Three snubs


    LAFCA: Three snubs


     


     


    Best Director:


    Todd Haynes, Far from Heaven (NYFCC)


    Zhang Yimou, Hero, House of Flying Daggers
    (NSFC)


    David Cronenberg, A History of
    Violence
    (NSFC)


    Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
    (NSFC, NYFCC)


    Olivier Assayas, Carlos (LAFCA)


     


    NSFC: Three snubs


    NYFCC: Two snubs


    LAFCA: One snub


     


     


    Best Supporting Actor:


    Steve Buscemi, Ghost World (NSFC, NYFCC)


    Dennis Quaid, Far from Heaven (NYFCC)


    Peter Sarsgaard, Shattered Glass (NSFC)


    Eugene Levy, A Might Wind (NYFCC)


    Bill Nighy, AKA, I Capture the Castle, Lawless Heart, Love
    Actually
    (LAFCA)


    Ed Harris, A History of Violence
    (NSFC)


    Michael Sheen, The Queen
    (LAFCA)


    Vlad Ivanov, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and
    2 Days
    (LAFCA)


    Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
    (NSFC)


    Paul Schneider, Bright Star (NSFC)


    Niels Arestrup, A Prophet (LAFCA)


    Albert Brooks, Drive (NSFC, NYFCC)


     


    NSFC: Six Snubs


    NYFCC: Four snubs


    LAFCA: Four snubs


     


     


    Best Supporting Actress:


    Elaine May, Small Time Crooks (NSFC)


    Patricia Clarkson, Far from Heaven (NSFC, NYFCC)


    Edie Falco, Sunshine State (LAFCA)


    Maria Bello, A History of Violence (NYFCC)


    Luminita Gheorghiu, The Death of Mr. Lazarescu (LAFCA)


    Hanna Schygulla, The Edge of Heaven (NSFC)


    Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (NSFC)


     


    NSFC: Four snubs


    NYFCC: Two snubs


    LAFCA: Two snubs


     


     


    Best Actor:


    Michael Douglas, Wonder Boys (LAFCA)


    Gene Hackman, The Royal Tenenbaums (NSFC)


    Paul Giamatti, Sideways (NYFCC)


    Liam Neeson, Kinsey (LAFCA)


    Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat (LAFCA)


    Michael Fassbender, X-Men: First Class, Jane Eyre,
    Shame, A Dangerous Method (LAFCA)


     


    NSFC: One snub


    NYFCC: One snub


    LAFCA: Four snubs


     


     


    Best Actress:

    Naomi Watts, Mulholland Dr. (NSFC)


    Hope Davis, American Splendor, The Secret Lives of Dentists
    (NYFCC)


    Vera Farmiga, Down to the Bone
    (LAFCA)


    Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
    (NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA)


    Yolande Moreau, Séraphine
    (NSFC, LAFCA)


    Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Vincere
    (NSFC)


    Kim Hye-ja, Mother (LAFCA)


    Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
    (NSFC)


    Yun Jeong-hie, Poetry (LAFCA)

     


    NSFC: Five snubs


    NYFCC: Two snubs

    LAFCA: Five snubs

     


     


    Totals from each group (since 2000):


    NSFC: 25 snubs


    NYFCC: 14 snubs


    LAFCA: 19 snubs


     


    NYFCC has the best accuracy from wins to Oscar nominations (at least in
    regards to these six categories), followed by LAFCA, and then NSFC.


     


    Some of these winners weren’t eligible (among them are Carlos and Poetry). Why do you think some of these films/performances were
    snubbed? What’s the most egregious omission? Going back even further, what
    other winners weren’t eventually nominated because of generally agreed upon
    reasons?



      

    Reply
    Pavel Romanov
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    #58392

    The NSFC has always been more adventurous in its choices.  And it is never sought per se to predict what the Oscars will eventually do. I think the same can be said to an extent about NY & LA. Only NBR, which really isn’t a critics group, is the only one that probably tries to align itself with whatever the academy’s choices will be.

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    Scottferguson
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    #58393

    interesting research

    pedantic point – some of the winners weren’t Oscar eligible, either because of cable showings in the US or at home initially, papers not filed with Academy, or not eligible because previous year had FL nomination – not that any of them would have been nominated, but that reduces the list a little  

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    Trent
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    #58394

    Many critics groups tend to vote for films that have their stories based/are filmed in the town that they work out of (i.e. New York, LA, Chicago, etc.). Like every awards show (and some posters on this board), bias is a major key.

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    Logan
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    #58395

    Tom, I commented on that (I know about Carlos and Poetry, and going back further to something like Linda Fiorentino – The Last Seduction, winner of Best Actress at the NYFCC). One thing I ask myself is how big of an impact do the awards have. 

    Also, it’s good to see for future predictions (NYFCC has been the most accurate, intentionally or not).

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    Scottferguson
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    #58396

    Tom, I commented on that (I know about Carlos and Poetry, and going back further to something like Linda Fiorentino – The Last Seduction, winner of Best Actress at the NYFCC). One thing I ask myself is how big of an impact do the awards have. 

    Also, it’s good to see for future predictions (NYFCC has been the most accurate, intentionally or not).

    You sure did – sorry I missed it (read the intro, didn’t realize there was more at the end)

    The importance is definitely a case by case situation. Generally, if someone has been established as a contender by those who shape these things for better or worse, they help. If someone hasn’t been, then meaningless. Each individual case has its own importance or lack thereof.     

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    Logan
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    #58397

    If someone’s a star, or they’ve been a previous nominee, it’s probably more surprising when they get snubbed after winning a major award. With this criteria, perhaps the most suprising snubs go to Dunst, Neeson, Giamatti, Hackman, Douglas, Bello, Brooks, Sheen, Quaid, and Buscemi. Looking at this group, it’s clear that they were in competitive years.

    Still, though, it’s kind of surprising to me that Melissa Leo got in over Hawkins in 2008 when both were pretty even with how unknown they were and Hawkins getting the huge push from critics (in a Mike Leigh film no less).

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    rockstitution
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    #58398

    ^ I suppose it’s the nature of their roles. I loved Hawkins but a lot of people were turned off by her plucky performance (despite the film netting a screenplay nod). Leo not only had the more conventional Oscar role, she had also been in the business for years and almost certainly worked with a lot more Academy members than Hawkins (her film also netted a screenplay nod).

    My guess is that if Jolie had made the cut like she was supposed to for “A Mighty Heart” the year before, they probably wouldn’t have felt like making it up to her for “Changeling” and Hawkins would’ve probably have been nodded.  

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    Logan
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    #58399

    Not the biggest Happy-Go-Lucky fan myself (find it difficult sitting through the first thirty minutes), and I prefer Leo in FR, but it’s still a bit of a surprise (though it was reasonable to predict a Leo nomination when she made it in with SAG).

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    Scottferguson
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    #58400

    If someone’s a star, or they’ve been a previous nominee, it’s probably more surprising when they get snubbed after winning a major award. With this criteria, perhaps the most suprising snubs go to Dunst, Neeson, Giamatti, Hackman, Douglas, Bello, Brooks, Sheen, Quaid, and Buscemi. Looking at this group, it’s clear that they were in competitive years.

    Still, though, it’s kind of surprising to me that Melissa Leo got in over Hawkins in 2008 when both were pretty even with how unknown they were and Hawkins getting the huge push from critics (in a Mike Leigh film no less).

    Sony Classics and Leo were hungrier and pushed harder, #1 votes almost certainly made the difference (far less passion for Hawkins), the latter hurt a bit by lead/supporting confusion, the post- Weinstein Disney run Miramax likely wasn’t unhappy she wasn’t nominated because she wouldn’t win and the campaign would have cost them more than they’d have made back to support her.

    Hawkins also might have been hurt by too-high expectations that the wins led voters to have, which sometimes can hurt.    

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    rockstitution
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    #58401

    How was there lead-supporting confusion for Hawkins, or didi you mean Leo?

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    Logan
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    #58402

    Confused about that too. Lesley Manville was certainly hurt by lead/supporting confusion, though.

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    Scottferguson
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    #58403

    “the latter” referred to Hawkins, since she was the second one mentioned

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    Alijah Purdy
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    #58404

    There have also been some instances where someone gets nominated for an Oscar despite being snubbed at all other precursor awards. The first to come to mind is Marcia Gay Harden, who won a New York Film Critics Circle for Pollock, but was snubbed at all other precursors, yet still landed and won the Oscar.

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    rockstitution
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    #58405

    Scott, how was there category confusion for Hawkins? She was front and center, no other roles were even remotely as big as hers in the film.

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