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Which BP nominees will go home empty handed on Oscar night?

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  • FreemanGriffin
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    #1202011279

    Looking over my current predictions I have four BP nominees going home empty handed. Sadly, Lion is one of them ): Arrival, Hidden Figures, and Hell Or High Water are the other three…

    Fences is definitely going to win Best Supporting Actress.

    I have Hacksaw Ridge winning for Sound Editing.

    La La Land I have predicted as winning at least 7: BP, Director, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Score and Song…

    Manchester by the Sea better win Best Actor and I finally have come to believe it will win Original Screenplay

    Moonlight I am predicting will win 2: Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

    However… Arrival has a shot at the sound awards; Hacksaw Ridge could also win for Film Editing (I think it’s a close contest); La La Land could also win for Best Actress (I am predicting Isabelle Huppert, but…), Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Costume Design – I don’t believe it will sweep but it potentially could do so, it is competitive in almost every category.. Lion could upset in the 2 categories in won at BAFTA: Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay and has a shot at Cinematography (I would love for all 3 of these to happen!) … and it is within the realm of possibility that Moonlight gets completely shut out (I sure hope so but doubt it)…

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    pulp50
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    #1202011366

    I have most of the same as you, none for Hell or High Water, a travesty in my opinion. Nothing for Arrival, but like you I also think that could get sound editing, or just maybe Adapted Screenplay, also none for Hidden Figures or Lion. I think Hidden Figures best shot is adapted screenplay, but that’ll probably go to Moonlight, Dev Patel might upset but I doubt it. I have Hacksaw Ridge getting sound editing as its only one, but I wonder if I’m sleeping on La La Land for that category since it’s the first musical nominated. That could be a good thing for it in Sound Editing. If it did win, then Hacksaw Ridge would be winless too.

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    ADouble
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    #1202011460

    Definitely winning at least one:
    La La Land
    Manchester
    Moonlight
    Fences

    Dark horses but not outside the realm of possibility in at least one category:
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Lion

    Most likely to be shut out:
    Arrival
    Hell or High Water
    Hidden Figures

    Arrival and HoHW are two of my three favorites from 2016, so naturally I’m super happy about the way this seems to be working out.

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    Teridax
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    #1202011470

    Moonlight and sadly Hell or High Water will win nothing.

    Either Hacksaw Ridge OR Arrival will also get shut out, depending on which film wins Sound Editing. My money is on Hacksaw winning that category, since it is a war film, so I’m thinking that will leave Arrival with 0 wins out of its 8 nominations.

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    Honey
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    #1202011474

    Hidden Figures
    Hell or High Water

    I think arrival might sneak in somewhere like ex-machina did last year.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202011478

    Lion, Hell or High Water, and Hidden Figures will win none.

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    Jason Travis
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    #1202011484

    Moonlight and sadly Hell or High Water will win nothing.

    Moonlight is winning Adapted Screenplay, and most likely Supporting Actor unless Patel’s late surge takes him to the top. But no way Jenkins goes home empty handed.

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    Teridax
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    #1202011506

    Moonlight and sadly Hell or High Water will win nothing.

    Moonlight is winning Adapted Screenplay, and most likely Supporting Actor unless Patel’s late surge takes him to the top. But no way Jenkins goes home empty handed.

    Sorry Jason, SAG Ensemble winner Hidden Figures will win Adapted Screenplay. Remember how nobody thought that Richard Linkater would go empty handed for Boyhood? The Oscar voters are definitely going to want to give HF something, and it is peaking at just the right moment in terms of popularity and hype. Also, Dev Patel is probably going to win Supporting Actor as Lion’s only win of the night, but I’m admittedly less sure of that than I am Screenplay.

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    Maxwell
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    #1202011519

    If I were a voter I’d vote for a Manchester sweep – but there’s a slim chance that both Washington and La La Land will win Actor and Original Screenplay, and it’ll be left in the dust. I’d easily buy one happening, but both seems unlikely. I think Moonlight’s got Adapted Screenplay on lock, even if Supporting Actor seems like a tight race. Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge could easily pick up sound/film editing or, in the former’s case, even production design; but both could also easily leave with nothing. Despite the ASC Award, I don’t think Lion has a shot at cinematography, but Dev Patel could certainly win. Fences will obviously pick up at least one award. I don’t see Hidden Figures or Hell or High Water winning anything.

    La La Land will win at least one or two, I suppose, so that means the minimum possible is 3/9 (La La Land sweep with wins for Davis, Washington, Ali, and Jenkins’ screenplay) and the maximum possible is 7/9, although it’s highly unlikely both Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge will win an award.

    I’m betting Affleck, Patel, and Lonergan’s screenplay win, with Sound Editing going to Hacksaw, and we get 6/9.

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    Jason Travis
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    #1202011540

    @Teridax:

    I agree that Patel is a major threat to win Best Supporting Actor now that Lion is really soaring at the box-office. Both Ali and Patel are in Best Picture nominees and both are only in part of their films. But Ali left an impact on me that radiated more then Patel, and I still think his SAG win sealed it. BAFTA has issues rewarding certain African American performances any attention (look at Washington).

    In terms of Screenplay, Moonlight is just more poetic and unique then Hidden Figures. I know that doesn’t always translate to a winner, but voters are more eclectic with these categories. That’s why Precious was able to win over Up in the Air. The 8 nominations for Moonlight is more then Hidden Figures’ mere 3. I think the latter’s success at the box-office is the only reason it even made the cut. I like that it’s about positive black people doing amazing things, but it’s not a screenplay that wins in my book. Moonlight suffers from not campaigning at all. It’s been a quiet player, and it’s too bad. The movie deserved more then $15 million at the box-office and perhaps the homosexuality themes caused audiences to stay away, especially the black community which has always had issues with openly gay acceptance. Most of my friends also never heard of the movie and it’s a shame- it really is a brilliant film (save the last 20 minutes).

    But again those 8 nods signify it is beloved among members. I think Jenkins wins. The Scripters award also helps.

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    adsfloats
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    #1202011541

    Definitely winner: La La Land

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    AugB
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    #1202011612

    Manchester By The Sea
    Lion
    Hidden Figures
    Hell or High Water

    In my predictions:
    LLL wins 10
    Fences wins 2 (Actor and Supporting Actress)
    Moonlight wins 2 (Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay)
    Arrival wins 1 (Editing)
    Hacksaw Ridge wins 1 (Sound Editing)

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202011792

    La La Land and Fences are the only two BP nominees that are absolutely guaranteed to win something. Out of the others, Moonlight is the least likely to go home empty-handed and Hell or High Water is the most. I kind of feel bad for that movie because I loved it and yet even I wouldn’t actually vote for it in any of its nominated categories.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1202011861

    Easy calls
    Hidden Figures
    Hell or High Water
    Lion
    Arrival
    ———————-
    Fences: at least sup actress (hopefully nothing else)
    Manchester: actor/screenplay
    Moonlight: sup actor/screenplay (hopefully just screenplay)
    La La Land: several Oscars
    Hacksaw Ridge: at least sound editing (maybe editing too)

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202011862

    Nada for Arrival, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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