October 13, 2012 at 3:31 am #71671
I’m compiling thoughts for an article for us here at GD and would appreciate your thoughts.
Pls cite the specific nominations you think ‘The Hobbit’ may get – and why. TXXXXOctober 13, 2012 at 3:53 am #71673
I’m not particularly excited about The Hobbit because, for one, I don’t think it needed THREE MOVIES. And two, I’m kind of over Lord of the Rings. Tolkein’s iteration of fantasy is boring.
In less nerdy talk, more Oscar talk: Makeup, maybe the two Sound categories, maybe Visual Effects, maybe Costume Design (but it’s a VERY competitive category this year). That’s it. The Hobbit is inherently less “serious” a story than LOTR, at least the first part of it, which is the part coming out this year.October 13, 2012 at 7:08 am #71674
The Academy might be over the fantasy genre and may not take this road once again. It must be noted that Peter Jackson has cashed in on his IOU with the last LOTR film sweeping the 76th Oscars. After the series of LOTR films, he’s had a shaky time with the film industry. And with his return to doing fantasy films, we may get to see the Peter Jackson that we all know and love and who made Middle-earth possible for the big screen. The three Hobbit films may be his biggest chance back to glory.
It’s been years since a quality fantasy film has been produced and The Hobbit may be the genre’s next big thing. I am not absolutely convinced that The Hobbit is a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination but I think it’ll do well in the technical categories. With that said, I’m not completely counting it out just yet.
I think the biggest problem for The Hobbit is because it is a children’s book written by Tolkien. It is more friendly to the audiences but it lacks the seriousness and the gravitas of the Lord of the Rings. Nonetheless, there are some things that are going in the film’s favor; it has the buzz and undoubtedly has the fanbase to support it.
It’s too early to tell. When the film is finally out, we’ll know by then.October 13, 2012 at 7:17 am #71675
I’d say, 3 and that’s it. Maybe a 9th or 10th position for BP.
Makeup and Hair
Visual EffectsOctober 13, 2012 at 1:47 pm #71676
Well I gotta be positive about The Hobbit. Afterall, Fantasy is among my favorite genres. So optimistically, I’d say it’s going to get these noms:
Sound Editing and Mixing
Best Adapted Screenplay
My fingers are crossed anyways, but I wish at this point that he hadnt extended it to three films. This could be too much for the attention span of voters and, their other flaws……On the other hand, they could be great for audiences and fans!
Lol.October 13, 2012 at 2:05 pm #71677
I think the Academy will welcome another Peter Jackson trilogy with open arms. I don’t think one book should have been made into 3 films, so I think the Academy will pass on the Screenplay nominations until the last film.
For the first installment, I think the wins the film receives (if any) will be in the Visual Effects and sound categories.
Predicted nominations: 10 total
Make UpOctober 13, 2012 at 3:07 pm #71678
My extended prediction would be that this installment does nothing outside technicals, but the next two draw more attention given the massive battle scenes and SMAUG. Keep in mind, Smaug is not even really in this one, this one is the journey to the mountain.October 14, 2012 at 12:44 pm #71679
4.Make-up and hairstyling
I think this first film will miss out on the picture nomination, but surely the franchise will gain one by the third and maybe even a win.October 14, 2012 at 1:45 pm #71680
I was predicting it to make it big (Picture/Director/Screenplay + techs) but after the announcement of it now being 3 films, in addition to the increased competition from films like Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty, I think the first one will be limited to just techs.
The second film will probably do much better due to: a) next year’s crop of films looking extremely weak* b) more battle scenes and c) the latest release date of all three films. The third film is being stupidly released in July and will probably suffer Oscar-wise because of it.
*So far, the biggest contenders are The Wolf of Wall Street, August: Osage County, The Great Gatsby and To the Wonder.October 14, 2012 at 2:03 pm #71681
I’m surprised that pretty much no one has brought up its cinematography chances. I suppose 48fps format could be a flop, but if it turns out well (which it probably will), I think it’s a shoo in for a nomination there. But i think there is a strong chance of it being shut out of picture and directing awardsOctober 14, 2012 at 2:15 pm #71682
I’m hoping for BP, BD, Adapt. Screenplay and other tech nods. My wish would be for an Ian McKellan or Cate Blanchett nomination but that probably won’t happen.
It is probably my most anticipated movie of the whole year with The Master, Cloud Atlas, Lincoln and Les Miserables coming right behind it. I’m such a fan of the 3 masterpieces Jackson created for us in the early 2000s. I hope he makes another great movie with The Hobbit. But that’s all we can do for now… hope.October 14, 2012 at 3:13 pm #71683
I’m really, really curious about Cinematography and Editing, given the 48 frames controversy.
“King Kong” still grabbed four tech noms (sound editing and mixing, visual effects and art direction) just three years after the “ROTK” sweep, so at least the tech branches weren’t sick of Jackson.
“The Lovely Bones” did manage an acting nomination a few years after that, but nothing else. You could say they just didn’t click with that one. If they were sick of Jackson, “Kong” would have been snubbed, too.
For “The Hobbit,” lay money on both sound categories, production design, makeup, costumes, and visual effects. The nominees and winners for these categories tilt towards prosthetics (for makeup) as well as sheer volume of work. The branches know their fellow artists worked for two years on these films.
Honestly, picture, director and screenplay will depend mostly on taste and mood and whether or not audiences feel like they’ve seen this kind of thing already. But you can put good money on 4-6 tech nominations.
It probably won’t happen, but I am always going to root for Andy Serkis, who deserved a nomination or special recognition for his work on the original trilogy and “Kong,” not to mention “Rise of the Planet of the Apes.” He is also assistant director on “The Hobbit.”
October 14, 2012 at 3:41 pm #71684
I’m surprised that pretty much no one has brought up its cinematography chances. I suppose 48fps format could be a flop, but if it turns out well (which it probably will), I think it’s a shoo in for a nomination there. But i think there is a strong chance of it being shut out of picture and directing awards
Sound Editing and Mixing
Best Adapted Screenplay
Well it’s Andrew Lesnie. I’d be surprised if he isnt nominated for this and he could even win.October 14, 2012 at 5:08 pm #71685
I really dont think the academt is gonna go crazy with this like they did with lord of the rings, maybe its crazy but i´m just predicting it for production design, maybe visual effects, makeup/hair and costume design…thats it.