Which Oscar race do you think this is the closest?

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Which Oscar race do you think this is the closest?
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Documentary
Best Foreign Film
Other
  • Paul Hardister
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    #1202009351

    Would love to hear your thoughts! After Bafta, I think the tightest race now is Best Supporting Actor between Ali and Patel. If you select other, I would be curious to hear what other category is a dead heat and why?

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    Profile photo of Michael ParisiMoviebuff22
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    #1202009418

    Actor, followed closely by supporting actor

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    GusCruz
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    #1202009448

    I voted for Other: Doc Short and Live Action Short, because we have no tea leaves

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    GusCruz
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    #1202009454

    Makeup is a tough one too

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    Paul Hardister
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    #1202009455

    I agree about the shorts. Was going to put them as choices because I struggle with those every year 🙂

    Makeup will be tough too because all the precursors have been going to films not even nominated. I’m making my final picks after the guild weighs in.

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    Profile photo of Raymond BaxterSomeonelikeme
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    #1202010613

    Actor, then supporting actor

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    Profile photo of NateNate
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    #1202010680

    After BAFTA, I see tightening races for Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay, with Lion gaining on Moonlight, but I think that the crafts races, particularly Production Design, Makeup, and Costume Design, are all closer.

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    Profile photo of andrea_nl25andrea_nl25
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    #1202010710

    Sup Actor & Original Screenplay

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    Julia Spencer
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    #1202010717

    Sup Actor & Original Screenplay

    Isnt Original Screenplay closed up now with MBTS winning Bafta? If Kenny Lonergan wins at the WGA next Sunday, that race should be finally over. And MBTS is beloved for its screenplay.

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    Julia Spencer
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    #1202010721

    I think production design, costume design? and film editing are now wide open. I was sure La La Land had production design and film editing in the bag but now I am not so sure anymore. Bafta tends to predict the Oscar in these tech categories. I am also not so sure that Linus Sandgren will get the Oscar for Cinematography, especially if the academy really loves Lion and the movie seems to peak right now at the box office (top 9 right under La La Land but with a higher average per screen).

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    Profile photo of Xavier CocteauZooey the Dreamer
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    #1202010723

    Two weeks ago, this season looked so boring and predictable. Now, it’s crazy. I can see many races that could go either way.

    Actor – It’s Casey vs. Denzel. I want Casey to win, but Denzel has a very strong politically charged narrative. Thing is, he only has SAG. We’ll see.

    Supporting Actor – Ali is great. This is my opinion. But I agree that he didn’t even give the best supporting performance in the movie. And with the movie obviously losing steam, I wouldn’t be all too shocked to see a dark horse win. Patel is in a movie people seem to love. He’s a charmer and he’s Indian, which wouldn’t make the Academy look bad by denying a black actor the award. Ali didn’t succeed in winning all the major precursors. He won SAG and Critics’ Choice, but lost the Globe and BAFTA and he might be in danger.

    Original Screenplay – I want MANCHESTER to win, but LLL has the big stat of Globe and Critics’ Choice, which is a very strong combination. Maybe they split the vote and … what wins?

    Cinematography – Even though I believe that LLL takes this easily, the ASC win for LION is interesting. Does the film really have a bloc voting for it?

    Sound Mixing – LLL losing BAFTA was a surprise and BAFTA is usually on the money in this category.

    Sound Editing – It’s Hacksaw vs. Arrival.

    Make-up & Hairstyling – All three have a shot.

    Production Design – At least three films are viable contenders. I believe LLL will take it, but maybe its contemporary look (though I disagree with this statement, the film isn’t all that contemporary in feel) may work against it.

    Costume Design – Jackie is the front-runner, but I don’t buy it as a winner. It’s one of these default front-runners that always lose.

    Animated Feature Film – It’s probably Zootopia but Kubo has way too many fans.

    Foreign Language Film – I just don’t buy Toni Erdmann. The Salesman?

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    Profile photo of Michael ParisiMoviebuff22
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    #1202010734

    I’m not going to have an opinion one way or the other on Casey vs. Denzel until we start hearing from academy voters

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202010750

    I chose Best Original Screenplay: a few years ago I thought they would split Director and Screenplay giving an Oscar to both Linklater and Inarritu; they gave both Oscars to the latter. MBTS is more of a writer’s movie than a director’s movie though, so it feels a bit different this year. I switched my prediction back to MBTS but am very uncertain about it. Both are superb screnplays and a tie would be wonderful. Ultimately, MBTS meant so much more to me personally and is definitely my choice – will it be theirs?

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202010752

    Cinematography – Even though I believe that LLL takes this easily, the ASC win for LION is interesting. Does the film really have a bloc voting for it?

    Production Design – At least three films are viable contenders. I believe LLL will take it, but maybe its contemporary look (though I disagree with this statement, the film isn’t all that contemporary in feel) may work against it.

    Costume Design – Jackie is the front-runner, but I don’t buy it as a winner. It’s one of these default front-runners that always lose.

    Foreign Language Film – I just don’t buy Toni Erdmann. The Salesman?

    I so want Lion to win for Cinematography; I am sticking with La La Land but it’s a real toss-up for me. I am hoping I get predictions wrong and a higher percentage of what I want to see win instead!

    I think people are underestimating Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in both production design and costume design.

    The dark horse for Best Foreign Language Film is Land Of Mine.

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    Profile photo of Aayaan UpadhyayaAayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202010763

    I chose Best Original Screenplay: a few years ago I thought they would split Director and Screenplay giving an Oscar to both Linklater and Inarritu; they gave both Oscars to the latter. MBTS is more of a writer’s movie than a director’s movie though, so it feels a bit different this year. I switched my prediction back to MBTS but am very uncertain about it. Both are superb screnplays and a tie would be wonderful. Ultimately, MBTS meant so much more to me personally and is definitely my choice – will it be theirs?

    But the screenplay win for Birdman was just not for Inarritu, it was for three other writers as well. Maybe the academy didn’t want to deny the other three their Oscars just because Inarritu was getting another as director? Perhaps if only Inarritu was credited for the screenplay he wouldn’t have won both of them?

    Now this year I feel like with Chizelle being an absolute lock for director (something that Inarritu wasn’t in 2014), and with him being the sole person credited for La La Land’s screenplay, I see this easily going to Lonnergan. I also see him easily taking WGA.

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