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Who are we overestimating

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  • Ryan Lapierre
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    #170327

    There was a thread saying who are we underestimating but who are we overestimating? For example Unbroken is not getting a best picture nod. It was shut out by the globes and has mixed reviews so I’m not seeing it. What do you think?

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    FilmGuy619
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    #170329

    Maybe Robert Duvall. I think his Globe and SAG nominations just have to do with him being who he is, like Helen Mirren in Hitchcock, who was nominated at both awards shows, then eventually got snubbed. Also, even though unbroken and American Sniper were shut out by the Globes and SAGS, they might’ve peaked too late. I don’t think Jennifer Aniston should get too comfortable either. 

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #170330

    I’ll tell you who we are UNDERestimating… The Grand Budapest Hotel. As much as I loved the movie, the Academy has never loved Wes Anderson films as much as everyone did. Look at Moonrise Kingdom and Fantastic Mr. Fox in total getting only three nominations.

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    Awardsfunyay
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    #170331

    Felicity Jones/Rosamund Pike in Best Actress.

    I think Moore and Witherspoon are locks compared to them because of their name and star power. I think since we do always see surprises, one of those two women could get knocked out from the “lock” that they’ve had for so long. Now that Aniston has received more for performance I think she could almost be stronger than those two because she is more exciting becuase she is finally being taken seriously. I could see Blunt/Adams getting in because someone who wins the comedy/musical globes often gets in. I also think “Into the Woods” is picking up so I’m hoping for Blunt. Cotillard and Swank also could surprise.  

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    Eddy Q
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    #170332

    It appears Unbroken has been overestimated all year long, but people are finally cottoning on to this. I’d say it has a slender chance of making it into Best Picture, but for Director Jolie can forget it.

    Also we shouldn’t assume all Oscar voters are rushing to see Cake and The Judge (or even Nightcrawler), but Aniston, Duvall and Gyllenhaal all have at least half-decent chances, though I’d be surprised to see all 3 make it in.

     

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    Noé
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    #170333

    The Imitation Game. 3rd/4th in the odds qualifies as overestimated to me. I don’t think it’s that strong.

    Same with Benedict Cumberbatch. Not a lock as Redmayne and Keaton. Could be the Hanks of this year.

    Unfortunately Felicity Jones. She’s vulnerable in favor to bring in (rightfully) Cotillard and (please don’t!) Aniston.

    Morten Tyldum for Director. Nope. Total overestimating.

    Agree with the overestimated reign of Unbroken now falling.

    And I either see Robert Duvall getting a nod. Even a surprise nominee coming from anywhere seems more plausible to me.

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    Mina Nagy
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    #170334

    The OVERestimated:
    PICTURE
    Theory of Everything
    Foxcatcher
    Unbroken
    ACTOR
    Steve Carrell (though I love him)
    ACTRESS
    Felciity Jones
    Jennifer Aniston
    (Pike is getting in)
    SUPP ACTOR
    Duvall
    SUPP ACTRESS
    Keira Knightley
    Jessica Chastain
     

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    Halo_Insider
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    #170335

    I wouldn’t be too surprised if Gone Girl was left off the Best Picture list. I’m currently predicting it, due to the immense commercial success that it’s managed to attain (along with its critical reviews), but it could easily be just the sort of thing that voters find a little too cold. 

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    Junk
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    #170336

    I’d say Benedict Cumebrbatch. And Julianne Moore. I think it was Pete Hammond who said majority of Academy voters have yet to watch Still Alice. Also, let’s not get too carried away by the Boyhood train. Let’s wait for the PGAs to get a clear picture as to what the insiders really think.

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    KyleBailey
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    #170337

    Yeah Unbroken is kind of a lost cause at this point it seems. I don’t think I’ve ever been predicting it for Picture or Director. I pretty much agree with the ones said like Duvall and Aniston. God I hope Michael Keaton and Emma Stone are overestamated too 

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    vozas
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    #170338

    Julianne Moore. I think it was Pete Hammond who said majority of Academy voters have yet to watch Still Alice.

    Yup. I still think she needs to win either the Globe or SAG to call her a lock for the Oscar.

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    AMG
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    #170339

    The Grand Budapest Hotel has really been put back up there since SAG/GG/Critics Awards, but I can’t see it really getting into Best Picture or Director. A Screenplay nod, and a few technical nods, sure. But not the top honours. 

    Morten Tyldum will most likely not get in to the Best Director line up. I can see James Marsh and Damien Chazelle getting in to that race way before Tyldum. 

    Possibly Robert Duvall, there’s nearly always a shock nominee in the acting categories, and for me, his place is the weakest of all the top main five contenders across the acting categories. If Unbroken does go down well with voters, then Miyavi could break in. Brolin could get in if Inherent Vice does pretty well. And if Selma is up there with Birdman & Boyhood, then a supporting nod for Wilkinson could happen. 

    Boyhood. Not that it won’t get nominations – it will. But will voters really place it number one for Best Picture? For me, it’s just a very nice film. It hasn’t got anything to really go against it. But aside from the 12 years it took to make, it doesn’t have much going in its favour. The screenplay isn’t fantastic. It will probably get Linklater the Best Director Oscar, because of how much time and passion he has put into it. But for me, that will be enough reward for it. Especially when there are the ‘hilarious’ Birdman, the ‘historically important’ Selma, and other typical Oscar-loves-a-drama-slash-biopic The Theory of Everything/Whiplash/The Imitation Game etc. 

     

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    benbraddock
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    #170340

    I think STREEP is being over hyped and could be left out
    I think CARELL is fading and Keaton and the brits will get nommed
      redmayne, cumberbatch, oyelowo and spall or fiennes..
    I think COTILLARD AND ADAMS  are not getting in..
    DUVALL  is being over estimated
    SELMA AND DUVERNAY  are not as strong now that ive read the actual
    facts were tampered with…GEEZ.

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    AMG
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    #170341

    I think STREEP is being over hyped and could be left out
    I think CARELL is fading and Keaton and the brits will get nommed
      redmayne, cumberbatch, oyelowo and spall or fiennes..
    I think COTILLARD AND ADAMS  are not getting in..
    DUVALL  is being over estimated
    SELMA AND DUVERNAY  are not as strong now that ive read the actual
    facts were tampered with…GEEZ.

    Since when did the hype around Meryl Streep mean she wasn’t getting nominated. She gets nominated ALL THE TIME. She’s not going to miss out. Voters love her way too much for her to be left off. 

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    TomHardys
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    #170342

    Selma. What evidence do we have that is indeed a film that everybody is swooning over it? It did well at the Globes and Critics and I know it got shut out of the SAGs due to missing deadlines but I don’t think it’s the juggernault we’re making it to be. I agree it has a good chance of getting a decent amount of nominations but y’all are acting like Selma would be the evident #1 choice if the voters don’t care for Boyhood or Birdman and I’m just sitting here clutching my imaginary pearls and wondering where the hell is that idea coming from.

    Julianne Moore is not being overestimated… She will win mainly because she’s overdue and it’s a pretty damn easy actress to name-check. Imagine that small (is it that small though?) block of voters who don’t even watch the majority of the nominees’ movies? Do you think they’re gonna namecheck British unknown Rosamund Pike who’s only starting just now to make a name of herself? Unless they have someone next to them telling them she’s the Gone Girl star, that October box-office smash hit feminist movie, she doesn’t stand a chance (unfortunately because she’s my personal pick). Don’t even get me started on Felicity Jones, she’s not even certain to be nominated. Jennifer Aniston is still not taken seriously as a drama actress just yet (sorry babe, you’re no Sandra Bullock) and her movie is too small. Reese Witherspoon will get a good portion of those namechecking votes but some of the voters will fall asleep reading her last name and others will find themselves feeling better voting for the Oscarless veteran Julianne Moore.  

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