Who Becomes the Frontrunner with Victory at SAG?

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  • Joseph
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    #212795

    There has been a lot of talk following the PGA Awards that The Big Short is now the frontrunner to win Best Picture. While I agree, I was wondering if the same kind of scenario could happen with someone winning at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Saturday. Last year, Eddie Redmayne overtook Michael Keaton in Best Actor by winning there, and he ended up taking the Oscar, as did all other winners on the film side last year. So, with victory in Ensemble, does Spotlight go back in front, or does a win for The Big Short mean that it’s way out front. Will a surprise victory in Best Actor or Best Actress, for someone like Michael Fassbender or Saoirse Ronan, mean that DiCaprio and Larson are in danger? Can Rylance or Bale take advantage of Stallone missing out? And does the Supporting Actress winner pretty much have the Oscar locked up? Let me know. Also, if the same can be applied for the Emmys, tell me about it, but I know that SAG pretty much has no bearing on the Emmys.

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    Final2
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    #212797

    I think it will end the Ronan vs Larson Best Actress race if Larson wins. I still think Ronan will win the BAFTA though.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #212798

    Leo and Larson will lock it up. Rylance and bale will probably have to win BAFTA as well. But I think bale is gonna win SAG and Rylance BAFTA

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    Riley
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    #212800

    DiCaprio is locked up.  It looked like Cranston could threaten him at SAG, but Trumbo bombed at the Oscars.

    Not sure if Larson or Ronan wins, but whoever does gets the Oscar as well.

    Currently predicting Bale for SAG, Rylance for BAFTA and Stallone for the Oscar.

    Vikander should be able to lock it up.

    If Transparent wins ensemble, it is the new favourite for the Emmy coming off of wins from PGA and CSA.

    Short of a crazy upset, none of the other television categories matter.

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    Eddy Q
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    #212801

    I’m sceptical about Bale winning SAG, though it’s possible. What prevents me from predicting him is that when actors win a second SAG award not long after their first, it tends to be when they are an undeniable frontrunner for the entire season, such as Renee Zellweger for Cold Mountain (after Chicago), Helen Mirren for The Queen (after Gosford Park) and Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood (after Gangs of New York) and then again for Lincoln. Even in the absence of Stallone, Bale’s performance doesn’t seem like the type everyone will rally around, despite The Big Short being a frontrunner for the Ensemble award. To me, Mark Rylance seems like a consensus choice; he’s respected by many, considered an “actor’s actor” and has arguably the most acclaimed performance in the category. And Bridge of Spies is comfortably mainstream enough to carry him through, even without an Ensemble nod.

    With both female races I think the SAG winner will determine the Oscar winner. If Ronan upsets Larson, she’ll likely also win BAFTA and then she’ll be the indisputable frontrunner. But I don’t think that will happen. SAG is also the only true ‘precursor’ where both Mara and Vikander (TDG) are competing in supporting (no I’m not counting Critics Choice), so that result will also be very telling. 

    If The Big Short wins Ensemble, the race is practically over – I mean it even got Picture and Director noms at BAFTA, for Christ’s sake. If Spotlight wins, I’m still not convinced it’d be all that significant unless it also wins DGA.

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    Edward Distasio
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    #212802

      supporting actor is already  locked for stallone at the oscars

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    Moviebuff22
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    #212803

    Yeah Cranston had a great chance to win until they realized Trumbo was awful and his performance wasn’t that good

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    Riley
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    #212804

    Bale’s performance doesn’t seem like the type
    everyone will rally around, despite The Big Short being a frontrunner
    for the Ensemble award. To me, Mark Rylance seems like a consensus
    choice; he’s respected by many, considered an “actor’s actor” and has
    arguably the most acclaimed performance in the category.

    Is Bale a more famous actor’s actor though?  He is method and it took him many years before he got awards recognition.  Bale does not have a classic Oscar role, but that is an even greater hindrance for Rylance.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #212805

    It wouldn’t change anything in BP race.

    If TBS wins, it remains its frontrunner status.
    If Spotlight wins, who cares, considering the recent winners in this category. That alone definitely wouldn’t put them in the map again. And unless they don’t win DGA by some miracle, they’re out completely. And that is coming from a person who is rooting for that movie.

    If anyone but Rylance wins, it’s Stallone at the Oscar.
    If Rylance wins, it’s %75 Stallone vs %25 Rylance at the Oscar. Bridge of Spies is an incredibly popular movie but is Rylance mainstream enough to win SAG? He might be actor’s actor in UK but in USA? But you feel for him in the movie until last minute and plays probably the most sympathetic movie character I’ve seen in quite some time, so there’s that. He should be locked for the TV award, at least when there is no one from HBO in that category.

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    TerenceFletcher
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    #212806

    The Big Short
    Alicia Vikander

    All of the other categories are already pretty locked. 

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    Eddy Q
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    #212807

    [quote=”Wilkomirsk11″]Bale’s performance doesn’t seem like the type
    everyone will rally around, despite The Big Short being a frontrunner
    for the Ensemble award. To me, Mark Rylance seems like a consensus
    choice; he’s respected by many, considered an “actor’s actor” and has
    arguably the most acclaimed performance in the category.

    Is Bale a more famous actor’s actor though?  He is method and it took him many years before he got awards recognition.  Bale does not have a classic Oscar role, but that is an even greater hindrance for Rylance.

    [/quote]

    Yes he is, but he won fairly recently and SAG don’t tend to award twice unless it seems like they have to. I meant that Rylance is the obvious alternative in that regard, and you’d think there would be more incentive to vote for him than Bale. And quite a few people have won supporting SAG awards for roles you wouldn’t consider classic Oscar bait.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #212808

    Either way the winner of SAG isn’t getting the Oscar. I think bale and Rylance are about even in terms of support by the guild. I think Bale will win because the movie he’s in is more highly regarded

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    Andrew Carden
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    #212809

    Toast at the Oscars if they don’t triumph at SAG: “Spotlight,” Christian Bale, Kate Winslet, Rachel McAdams

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    nkb325
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    #212810

    Agree with most, if The Big Short wins ensemble it is officially the frontrunner, but if Spotlight wins, it will bring it to a neck and neck tie between the two till DGA. Same idea with Actress, if Larson wins shes probably near locked, but if Ronan wins she might be just slightly ahead. I think supporting actor honestly wont really make a difference. I know its kind lf different, but its like when Dallas Buyers club men got snubbed by bafta. Everyone just kind of ignored those winners because we knew who was out front. It would help Rylance but not much, and anyone else wouldnt mean much. Supporting actress has the weakest frontrunner right now of the acting categories with Vikander, so id say this race more than the rest, whoever wins moves out front, only barely, but who knows with this category.

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    RobertPius
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    #212811

    I don’t think Best Supporting Actress will be locked up until Oscar night. Since Jennifer Jason Leigh isn’t nominated at SAG I think her presence in the category at the Oscars could still spread the votes differently.

    And as Tom said on Golden Globe night “are we too inside”? I think that applies the most to Vikander. Critics love her but are other people even paying attention to her?  

    Even if Vikander takes SAG I could still see a lot of people saying who is this actress we never even heard of last year who didn’t really give a hands down “that is the winner performance?” I could see Academy members of that mind set voting for Winslet or Leigh out of familiarity even if they didn’t like their films.

    To me Vikander just seems like Jennifer Connelly or Felicity Jones all over again, (and she’s a LEAD!!!!)  

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