January 7, 2015 at 2:01 pm #171947
At this point, lots of the races have some locks and good bets. What I’ve noticed is that for a number of races, there are four spots filled with sure things and a fifth spot that could still go to any number of contenders. The particular ones that I see:
Lead Actor (Keaton, Redmayne, Ouelowo, Cumberbatch, ?)
Supporting Actor (Simmons, Hawke, Norton, Ruffalo, ?)
Original Screenplay (Boyhood, Birdman, Grand Budapest, Selma, ?)
Adapted Screenplay (Imitation, Gone Girl, Theory, Whiplash, ?)
Animated Feature (LEGO, Boxtrolls, Dragon, Big Hero 6, ?)
Foreign Film (Ida, Force Majeure, Leviathan, Wild Tales, ?)
For me, (at the moment) I’m going with Gyllenhaal, Ahmed, Nightcrawler, Wild, Princess Kaguya and Tangerines.
What does everyone else think? Did I miss a race? Are some of these actually totally locked up? Most importantly, who do YOU think will get these 5th spots? Discuss!
Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/January 7, 2015 at 2:11 pm #171949
Sup actor Duvall
Original Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler will actully replace Selma
Animated Song of the sea or Princess Tales
Foreign Film LiberatorJanuary 7, 2015 at 2:30 pm #171950
Not everything you list as a top 4 contender is a sure thing. For instance, I can see any of the animation contenders expect Lego Movie being snubbed, and nominations for both Princess Kaguya and Song of the Sea are a real possibility. Also, there is almost no such thing as a lock in the foreign film category.January 7, 2015 at 2:39 pm #171951
Lead Actor: Jake Gylenhaal- Nightcrawler
Supporting Actor: Robert Duval- The Judge
Original Screenplay: Foxcatcher
Adapted Screenplay: Wild
Animated Feature: I don’t have Boxtrolls, instead I have The Book of Life & The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Foreign Film: Timbuktu (not going to lie, I’ve never heard of it)January 7, 2015 at 3:09 pm #171952
Lead Actor: Oyelowo
Sup. Actor: Duvall
Original Screenplay: Nightcrawler
Adapted Screenplay: Unbroken
Animated Feature: Tale of Princess Kaguya
Foreign Film: Wild Tales
FYC: Ready Player One. Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Production Design, Director and BEST PICTURE (make it happen Oscars!!)January 7, 2015 at 3:54 pm #171953
Lead Actor: I have Jake Gyllenhaal getting in. If Fiennes gets in at BAFTA, I may switch to him.
Supporting Actor: I have Robert Duvall getting in. If somebody else gets in at BAFTA, I’m switching to that person.
Original Screenplay: I have Nightcrawler getting in. Foxcatcher and maybe Lego Movie are threats, though.
Adapted Screenplay: I don’t see Theory of Everything as a lock here and have Wild and American Sniper getting in over it.
Animated Film: I have Kaguya getting the last slot, and I think it might be a little safer than Boxtrolls.
Foreign Language Film: There’s no such thing as a lock in this category.January 7, 2015 at 4:17 pm #171954
Amy Adams getting in for big eyesJanuary 7, 2015 at 4:28 pm #171955
I just replaced David Oyelowo for Bradley Cooper. So my predix is now Bradley Cooper, Benedict Cumberbatch, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Keaton, and Eddie Redmayne.January 7, 2015 at 6:17 pm #171956
I honestly can’t envision Boxtrolls not getting in. The Academy loves stopmotion, and nominates basically every stopmotion film they can.
I agree that the Foreign film category doesn’t have locks, as much as really good bets. I think that the four I mentioned are very safe, given that they’re the four that are best known, If Ida in particular doesn’t get in, I would be amazed.
Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/January 7, 2015 at 6:38 pm #171957
Lead Actor: Steve Carell
Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin / Robert Duvall
Original Screenplay: Foxcatcher
Adapted Screenplay: Inherent Vice
Animated Feature: The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Foreign-language Film: TimbuktuJanuary 7, 2015 at 10:02 pm #171958
I just replaced David Oyelowo for Bradley Cooper. So my predix is now Bradley Cooper, Benedict Cumberbatch, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Keaton, and Eddie Redmayne.
That’s my 5 Oscar nominees as well. I have had Bradley Cooper in the moment i saw American Sniper a few weeks ago.January 7, 2015 at 10:11 pm #171959
As much as she deserves it, i have come to the conclusion that Marion Cotillard will not make the final lineup.
Gauging the way the Guilds have gone, there seems to be a recurring passion and alignment for the same films, the same precursors.
Jennifer Aniston is on voters radar, so i believe sh will take that spot that has been hers from the start.January 7, 2015 at 10:27 pm #171960
I think its Duvall for actor and Book of Life for animation.January 8, 2015 at 8:04 am #171961
This is a great question
for the last day of voting.
and Mr. Turner (I’m not sold on Selma)
Vice and Wild (I’m not sold on Whiplash)
Peabody and Sherman (a real wild card, just for the heck of it)
Liberator (an important film that deserves some attention, plus the story of Simón Bolívar would make a great first ever nomination for Venezuela)January 8, 2015 at 10:36 am #171962
Lead Actor (Keaton, Redmayne, Oyelowo, Cumberbatch, ?) Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Supporting Actor (Simmons, Hawke, Norton, Ruffalo, ?) Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Original Screenplay (Boyhood, Birdman, Grand Budapest, Selma, ?) Nightcrawler
Adapted Screenplay (Imitation, Gone Girl, Theory, Whiplash, ?) Unbroken
Animated Feature (LEGO, Boxtrolls, Dragon, Big Hero 6, ?) The Tales of Princess Kaguya
Foreign Film (Ida, Force Majeure, Leviathan, Wild Tales, ?) Timbuktu
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