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Who is the Best Picture Front-Runner?

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  • Nikhil
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    #1202420632

    I cannot think of another year where I was this conflicted about the potential winner this late in November.

    I was pretty certain the winner was ‘Three Billboards’, but after seeing how much it under-performed at the Independent Spirit awards, I grew a little concerned.

    Most prediction sites/forums have Dunkirk at the top as a shoe-in, which makes sense as far as the nomination goes, but I just do not see it as a winner. I would love to get your thoughts on this.

    Presently, I think ‘Three Billboards’ might still have it, but I could see ‘CMBYN’ or ‘Mudbound’ spoiling. SAG is really going to help me figure this one out, especially if ‘Billboards’ along with ‘The Post’ or ‘Dunkirk’ miss.

    I really do not see ‘Shape of Water’, ‘Lady Bird’ or ‘Darkest Hour’ taking it either, but I think they are all probably going to get nominated (I am on the fence about Lady Bird).

    Again, please let me know your thoughts. Am I undervaluing someone? If I had to rank the perspective nominees in terms of my opinion on the likelihood of winning, it would follow:

    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- it has the momentum, smart, timely, and funny. It may have the right balance, but I think it might lack that X factor that a best picture winner has.
    2. Call Me By Your Name- I think given the social climate right now this might be a strange choice for the Academy, but the reviews have been glowing and incredibly positive (almost as much as La La Land) and the film seems to be unaffected by it at this point so I am leaving it in.
    3. Mudbound- It’s getting attention from ensemble considerations- which makes sense- but can Netflix run a campaign? Outside of screenplay and ensemble nominations does this even make sense? I think it will pick up as the months progress, but I am less confident in Netflix than the film itself. Take that as you will.
    4. The Post- Unless it goes full ‘Spotlight’ or blows my mind I am taking this with a grain of salt. From what I have read, this film had some serious problems in development. Is it this year’s ‘Silence’?
    5. Lady Bird- I think I misjudged this. It is building strength very quickly, and it could become a force to reckon with.
    6. Dunkirk- I need to watch it again, because I was not sold, and I am a huge Christopher Nolan fan. I still do not think it is winning (and I don’t think it deserves to win either).
    7. Darkest Hour- Critics love it. Audiences are mixed at best? Not winning.
    8. Get Out- I would love it so much if a truly fun movie got picked. Is it too mainstream?
    9. The Shape of Water- There is a ton of praise- and many think it is the number one or two- but it might be a little too weird for a win. I have not seen it yet, so I do not want to cast judgment too prematurely. I am mostly certain it will be nominated.

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    Hunter-ish
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    #1202420656

    This year does indeed have many possibilities. There really isn’t a clear frontrunner. I’d say that at the moment Tgree Billboards is gaining the most momentum.

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    AviChristiaans
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    #1202420664

    Realistically, you can’t be a frontrunner if you don’t check off all the required boxes.
    – SAG Ensemble
    – Screenplay nomination/win
    – Acting nomination.

    Thus, you are not in the running for Best Picture.

    Right now i believe The Post and Three Billboards are the frontrunners. Realistically. They check off all the boxes. They have similiar narratives, they fit the narrative of the year, they can realistically hit all the required precursors that a Best Picture winner must (SAG – actors), DGA – directors), PGA – producers), Screenplay nominations).

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    manakamana
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    #1202420666

    Dunkirk and The Shape of Water will probably have the highest nomination counts, and they’re both certainly in the running at least for Best Director if not also Best Picture. However, the passion and buzz for CMBYN seems to be huge right now, and I wouldn’t underestimate Get Out either.

    I think Three Billboards will get nominated but I don’t personally think it plays universally well enough to win by the consensus needed with the BP system. Tough to say about The Post until we hear more detailed thoughts. My guess is that it’ll be admired and nominated but not too much of a contender to win.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202420673

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>TBH, even though I didn’t see the film yet and many said it’s great, I think I don’t see Three Billboards as a BP frontrunner. Whether we like it or not, it’s still a battle between Call Me By Your Name vs. Dunkirk, but I prefer the former to win BP. The Post’s late Dec. release date might lose its Oscar chances, and The Shape of Water might be strange to Oscar voters. I also think Lady Bird might prevail as well.</p>

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    Sentinel666
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    #1202420683

    “Dunkirk” has no chance to winning in my opinion. “CMBYN” and “Three Billboards…” are the strongest contenders at that time. I don’t see “Mudbound” even among nominees. “Get Out” has a big chance and I could see this as the winner, because that’s really great movie.

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    M: The Original
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    #1202420685

    I think Get Out is the sleeping giant no one wants to seriously consider. But it defines 2017 better than its white alternatives which is everything else.

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    eastwest
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    #1202420691

    This is the first year since I’ve been following this that nothing is concrete. Moonlight really did change the game in that it’s not over until that envelope is opened. I’m betting the PR chimps on each film are cautious to have their film be labeled the frontrunner.

    I think Get Out is being underestimated in terms of its nominations haul potential. Practically, it could get up to five (picture, screenplay, director, editing, and actor). And if they are considering the genre, both sound categories are in play too. So that’s putting it at a maximum with seven.

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    WildforFilm
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    #1202420693

    I’m still in shock that Get Out is being considered for more than anything but screenplay. Get Out is a creative film in terms of story but the film is by no means anything of a cinematic marvel. It’s as well made and acted as any of its horror genre counterparts (and no, having one character who provides comic relief does not make the film a comedy). Other than its plot, it’s pretty basic.

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    Sagand
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    #1202420696

    Moonlight really did change the game in that it’s not over until that envelope is opened.

    Maybe not even then…

    The race does still seem wide open and there’s about six films that could come along when the industry awards start and make themselves favourite. At this very second I think it’s going to be Dunkirk. I don’t think it’ll get a screenplay nomination or SAG ensemble, but the rules are the rules until they aren’t. You needed a director nomination until Argo won, you needed a editing nomination until Birdman won, you needed to win one of the three major guilds until Moonlight won.

    The Revenant came close without a screenplay nomination, average reviews and no block vote. Dunkirk has much better reviews and will have the British block behind it.

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    Hunter-ish
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    #1202420697

    This is the first year since I’ve been following this that nothing is concrete. Moonlight really did change the game in that it’s not over until that envelope is opened. I’m betting the PR chimps on each film are cautious to have their film be labeled the frontrunner.

    I think Get Out is being underestimated in terms of its nominations haul potential. Practically, it could get up to five (picture, screenplay, director, editing, and actor). And if they are considering the genre, both sound categories are in play too. So that’s putting it at a maximum with seven.

    If they live Get Out that much, which I’m not saying they will, I wouldn’t count it out for supporting actress and score.

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    M: The Original
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    #1202420698

    Moonlight really did change the game in that it’s not over until that envelope is opened.

    Maybe not even then…

    The race does still seem wide open and there’s about six films that could come along when the industry awards start and make themselves favourite. At this very second I think it’s going to be Dunkirk. I don’t think it’ll get a screenplay nomination or SAG ensemble, but the rules are the rules until they aren’t. You needed a director nomination until Argo won, you needed a editing nomination until Birdman won, you needed to win one of the three major guilds until Moonlight won.

    The Revenant came close without a screenplay nomination, average reviews and no block vote. Dunkirk has much better reviews and will have the British block behind it.

    Driving Miss Daisy won without a director nod.

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    Sagand
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    #1202420705

    Driving Miss Daisy won without a director nod.

    Yeah, that stat lasted longer than SAG ensemble has (Braveheart won without) or Screenplay has (Titanic won without), which is other people’s reasoning that Dunkirk can’t win. The point is ‘rules’ can be broken.

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    Tyler [Last Name]
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    #1202420707

    I just want to say that I do not think in a million years that Get Out will get nominated. The stigma of horror/comedy is too great.

    FYC: Ready Player One. Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Production Design, Director and BEST PICTURE (make it happen Oscars!!)

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    M: The Original
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    #1202420789

    I just want to say that I do not think in a million years that Get Out will get nominated. The stigma of horror/comedy is too great.

    Documentary will never break into best picture. Animation will not win Best Picture despite a nomination in the category. And foreign language has difficulty enough receiving a nomination. Wish a non-English movie could breakthrough. Get Out will be fine.

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