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Who is the Best Picture Front-Runner?

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  • Andrew Carden
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    I suspect there’s a chance, albeit a small one, that The Post can win Best Picture without taking a single other prize.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    PJ Edwards
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    Lady Bird ranked 7th on Gold Derby. That’s gotta change.

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    Noah Arlington
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    I still don’t get why Dunkirk is #1

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    RicosMama
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    Dunkirk shouldn’t be number 1. I would say its looking like a 3 horse race with The Post, Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird. I’m losing faith in Three Billboards and Shape of Water the longer it keeps going without any recognition.

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    pacinofan
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    “Dunkirk” was never going the beat the likes of “Call Me By Your Name” and “Lady Bird” at the critics’ awards so these results do not really change anything. Its strengths were always that it was the acclaimed drama of the year that people actually saw in large numbers, war films often do well at the Oscars and Christopher Nolan has been ill-treated at the Oscars so far and this was their chance to make up for it with material more suited to Academy tastes. Those things have not changed. It may still have the most nominations at the Oscars due to all the technical awards it will be up for. Even if it loses best picture and director from all the major critics groups it can still make up for it by winning best picture at the Golden Globes. That was always its best strategy to win best picture.

    The two things these critics awards have changed is “Three Billboards” has been slowed down in all four races it seemed like it could win (best picture, actress, supporting actor, original screenplay) and “The Post” has becomes a decent contender. “Three Billboards” was also never going to win at the Oscars via top critics’ prizes. An Oscar win for “Billboards” was always based on it being the zeitgeist film of 2017, actually proving to be a popular hit and possibly winning top prizes at the Golden Globes/Broadcast Critics Awards. Those wins now seem unlikely and “Billboards” clearly is more divisive than it seemed a week or two ago.

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    Paul Hardister
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    One thing to keep in mind is the Academy loves it when someone shifts from acting to the director’s chair. Actors make up the largest voting block in the Academy. Maybe they like when this happens because they secretly want to direct themselves.

    In the tradition of Clint Eastwood, Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, and Mel Gibson, I can see them wanting to honor Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele this year. Maybe another picture/director split brewing.

    Considering how well Get Out and Lady Bird are doing now and this prior trend of honoring former actors/actresses turned directors, I see Lady Bird and Get Out now as frontrunners.

    So happy Sasha Stone is the first expert to finally put Lady Bird as number one. (She was the only one to pick Moonlight last year.)

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    WildforFilm
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    I feel crazy for saying this, but I’m starting to think Lady Bird has a shot at Best Picture. The Oscars seem to only be awarding indie films nowadays, so I don’t think Dunkirk, The Post, or Shape of Water stand a chance at Best Picture.

    I also don’t see the Academy being progressive enough to award two gay-themed films back-to-back, so CMBYN is out.

    Florida Project will be lucky just to be nominated.

    Get Out is reminding me of that popular, mainstream film that always gets hype but falls short. I could see this being our big Best Picture nominee snub.

    3 Billboards was my pick recently after seeing it, but Lady Bird seems to be building all the buzz now and it’s got more heart than its competition.

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    Macca
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    Be wary. Films that build buzz can fizzle out over the course of the season, in fact it seems to have already happened to Shape of Water and Three Billboards. Generally the films that maintain a certain level of buzz have better chances of winning.

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    CitizenBlake
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    I feel crazy for saying this, but I’m starting to think Lady Bird has a shot at Best Picture. The Oscars seem to only be awarding indie films nowadays, so I don’t think Dunkirk, The Post, or Shape of Water stand a chance at Best Picture.

    That’s not entirely a truthful statement. Maybe a bit of an over-exaggeration to say the least.

    I mean I love Lady Bird, and would be fine if it won, but just cuz Moonlight won last year, doesn’t mean an indie Oscars revolution is in store.

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    Teridax
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    One thing to keep in mind is the Academy loves it when someone shifts from acting to the director’s chair. Actors make up the largest voting block in the Academy. Maybe they like when this happens because they secretly want to direct themselves.

    In the tradition of Clint Eastwood, Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, and Mel Gibson, I can see them wanting to honor Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele this year. Maybe another picture/director split brewing.

    Considering how well Get Out and Lady Bird are doing now and this prior trend of honoring former actors/actresses turned directors, I see Lady Bird and Get Out now as frontrunners.

    So happy Sasha Stone is the first expert to finally put Lady Bird as number one. (She was the only one to pick Moonlight last year.)

    Sasha and Matt Atchity were the only 2 Experts to predict Moonlight. Gotta give credit where credit is due. I love your point about actors-turned-directors, I’ve been thinking that myself. I’ve been appreciating the quality of your forum posts lately, keep it up. 🙂

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    dosmax
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    Be wary. Films that build buzz can fizzle out over the course of the season, in fact it seems to have already happened to Shape of Water and Three Billboards. Generally the films that maintain a certain level of buzz have better chances of winning.

    I think Shape of Water’s been at a disadvantage because it’s being released into theaters so long after the festivals. I think buzz could rebound once (I should say “if,” but I’m hopeful) the strong box office numbers start coming in.

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    EvaSofie
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    I feel crazy for saying this, but I’m starting to think Lady Bird has a shot at Best Picture. The Oscars seem to only be awarding indie films nowadays, so I don’t think Dunkirk, The Post, or Shape of Water stand a chance at Best Picture. I also don’t see the Academy being progressive enough to award two gay-themed films back-to-back, so CMBYN is out. Florida Project will be lucky just to be nominated. Get Out is reminding me of that popular, mainstream film that always gets hype but falls short. I could see this being our big Best Picture nominee snub. 3 Billboards was my pick recently after seeing it, but Lady Bird seems to be building all the buzz now and it’s got more heart than its competition.

    Like they’re gonna ignore the chance to make a political statement, ok.

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    Hunter-ish
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    #1202426719

    I definitely bet that TSOW will be a contender again once it is released in theatres.

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    Paul Hardister
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    One thing to keep in mind is the Academy loves it when someone shifts from acting to the director’s chair. Actors make up the largest voting block in the Academy. Maybe they like when this happens because they secretly want to direct themselves.

    In the tradition of Clint Eastwood, Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, and Mel Gibson, I can see them wanting to honor Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele this year. Maybe another picture/director split brewing.

    Considering how well Get Out and Lady Bird are doing now and this prior trend of honoring former actors/actresses turned directors, I see Lady Bird and Get Out now as frontrunners.

    So happy Sasha Stone is the first expert to finally put Lady Bird as number one. (She was the only one to pick Moonlight last year.)

    Sasha and Matt Atchity were the only 2 Experts to predict Moonlight. Gotta give credit where credit is due. I love your point about actors-turned-directors, I’ve been thinking that myself. I’ve been appreciating the quality of your forum posts lately, keep it up. ????

    Thank you! Yes, very sorry I forgot about Matt Atchity picking Moonlight. I really enjoy his reviews too on What the Flick.

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