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Who is winning BEST ACTOR and why?

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  • Macbeth
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    #83210

    Shockingly, the great John Hawkes wasn’t nominated and instead Joaquin Phoenix was nominated instead.

    So who is winning Best Actor? and why?

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    Daniel B.
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    #83212

    While Daniel Day-Lewis seems like the obvious choice, I still have a hard time imagining the Academy giving him the distiction of being the first to win Best Lead Actor three times.

    Had Joaquin Phoenix been nominated for a SAG award, I would have bet on him easily, but no male has ever won an Oscar without a SAG nomination.

    Denzel Washington could also join the elite club of 3 time Oscar winners (he has a previous win in supporting and lead), which I don’t think the Academy is in love with Washington enough to do so. Plus, the BAFTA snub doesn’t help.

    Hugh Jackman is a strong contender, but the weaker-than-expected support for Les Miserables could hurt his chances.

    My current prediction (which might change depending on how the SAGs pan out) would be Bradley Cooper, based on the very strong support for Silver Linings Playbook.

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    Gabriel
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    #83213

    Daniel Day Lewis is not a lock. I mean, after these shocking nominations, ANYTHING could happen.

    I’m rooting for Phoenix all the way. Best actor of his generation.

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    AroundU
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    #83214

    Right now I went with DDL, he is the front-runner of the race so far. He IS the film. His performance made it bearable.

    I would be happy with Cooper winning who gave a surprisingly solid strong performance in an enjoyable movie.
     
    I still need to see Flight, Les Misérables and The Master 
     

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    Daniel B.
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    #83215

    I’m rooting for Phoenix all the way. Best actor of his generation.

    I would love to see this happen. 

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    Baby Clyde
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    #83216

    Haven’t seen ‘Lincoln’ yet and with all the noms and precusor awards it would be foolish to bet against him but I agree that 3 wins does seem excessive and I can’t help thinking Academy members might feel the same.

    The problem is there’s no one looking likely to stop him. Had ‘The Master’ been released 2 months later Phoenix would have been a possibility but it seems a long shot now. They’re not going to snub DDL to give Denzil his 3rd instead. Les Mis looks weak which just leaves Cooper who wasn’t even sure of a nomination untila  couple of weeks ago. SPB does look strong though.

    He seems the most likely spoiler but maybe the truth is that Daniel Day Lewis has this sewn up.

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    Renaton
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    #83217

    I’m actually starting to seriously consider Cooper for the win. That was a lot of nominations for SLP, and DD-L winning a third Oscar in the same year Spielberg gets his third directing one, and that Field might get a third, i don’t know… how many third-timers can a film have? I’m thinking Cooper right now, but the final prediction will depend on how audiences embrace the film and the way SAG goes. 

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    Jason Travis
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    #83218

    I think Lewis has it- If any actor of his generation deserves three trophies, Lewis is a good bet.

    But (sigh) I can see them going with Cooper or Jackman. And years from now that choice will look odd and ridiculous. But it’s happened before where strong solid dramatic contenders giving their best work are overlooked for lighter fare (eg Art Carney beating Jack Nicholson and Al Pacino in 1974).

    I’m bolding Daniel though.

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    PreludeinCSharpMinor
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    #83219

    I am going with Cooper. I just watched SLP last weekend and was impressed with his work. Very strong performance and loved the movie and all the performances. I think this might be the “heart” movie voters go with. DDL can will all the precursors but look what that did for Bigelow 🙁

    If Deniro wins supporting actor early on, Cooper wins. I think this cements the deal for Lawrence.

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    Jason Travis
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    #83220

    I doubt seriously Cooper is such a major threat. Him and Jackman will be close at the Globes- if he wins the Globe then maybe, but Day-Lewis is so above the rest of his competition. Before the nomination announcements it was all about Jackman this, and Jackman that- now it’s suddenly Cooper? And now De Niro wins? I don’t know. Don’t let the shocking nominees cloud judgment- 2003 (Return of the King) had a ton of curve balls nomination morning, and then the winners were all back to business as usual. Lincoln is a favorite, and Lewis is a TOP reason it’s such a success- without a believable performance out of him, the movie would not have been as well recieved.

    I think people want upsets and want Cooper to win- but he’s not in the same league- it’s just not happening.

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    Renaton
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    #83221

    You know, there is something to the Art Carney comparison, somewhat. He doesn’t have the factors Carney had. It’s another context, but he is sorta against 4 actors going method in darker/more serious films. I can see what Jason is saying, and I think it’s a good argument. In the way the field shaped up, Cooper does seem like the one who benefits the most from who his competition is. 

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    Renaton
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    #83222

    I doubt seriously Cooper is such a major threat. Him and Jackman will be close at the Globes- if he wins the Globe then maybe, but Day-Lewis is so above the rest of his competition. Before the nomination announcements it was all about Jackman this, and Jackman that- now it’s suddenly Cooper? And now De Niro wins? I don’t know. Don’t let the shocking nominees cloud judgment- 2003 (Return of the King) had a ton of curve balls nomination morning, and then the winners were all back to business as usual. Lincoln is a favorite, and Lewis is a TOP reason it’s such a success- without a believable performance out of him, the movie would not have been as well recieved.

    I think people want upsets and want Cooper to win- but he’s not in the same league- it’s just not happening.

    Cooper won NBR, and his film is the one most likely dethrone “Lincoln”. He could also win SAG if voters don’t want Lewis with a third win and don’t go for Jackman now that “Les Mis” is losing momentum. So even if he loses GG he is still competitive and still a threat for the win.

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    Atypical
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    #83223

    I still think Daniel Day-Lewis is going all the way to his third Oscar. It helps that he’s in the BP frontrunner and nominations leader, and if there are qualms about handing him his third, I’m guessing that the nature of the performance and subject matter will seal the deal for him. I’m not feeling it for anyone else yet.

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    Anonymous
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    #83224

    The other nominees are good to excellent actors.  There is only one who truly deserves the Oscar this year.  For Les Miserables, Mr. Jackman moved through a thirty year age difference with four distinct faces while singing and acting each age to perfection – a totally multilayered performance. All of it was done while up to his chest in icy water, climbing through snow-covered mountains in threadbare robes, slogging through watered peat sludge and physically changing in order to achieve the correct look for each stage of the role.

    In the process he lifted masts, carts, children, and two full-grown bodies while filming, acting, and singing each song live repeatedly for 10 – 12 hours a day. Then he topped it off by being the lead and at the center of a great ensemble cast that made every one of his fellow actors better. No one but no one else could have done what he did for this role or even came close to doing that this year. (Yes that goes for Daniel Day-Lewis)

     

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    seabel
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    #83225

    Hugh Jackman.

    They’re not going to give Daniel Day-Lewis a third (leading) Oscar. They need new faces. They’re forced to make some supporting actor nominee this year a 2nd or 3rd Oscar winner. In best actor, they have a chance with Phoenix, Cooper or Jackman, who have never won before.

    Jean Valjean is the role of a lifetime. Also, I’m predicting ‘Les Miserables’ to win Best Picture while I’m predicting Spielberg to win Best Director. I think it’s a 2003 scenario (Chicago/The Pianist). ‘Les Miserables’ wins 6 Oscars (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, Production Design, Makeup) and ‘Lincoln’ wins 3 Oscars (Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay).

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