December 24, 2014 at 1:41 pm #170023
Usually we see an acting nominee get in despite little to no precursor recognition, often thanks to:
- Being in a film that’s very popular with the Academy (Jacki Weaver, Max von Sydow, Alan Alda, Marcia Gay Harden for Mystic River)
- Riding the coattails of another actor from their film (Jonah Hill, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Shohreh Aghdashloo, Marcia Gay Harden for Pollack)
- Being an overwhelming critical favorite (Javier Bardem, Michael Shannon, Emmanuelle Riva)
- Having a compelling narrative or strategically brilliant campaign (Laura Linney, Quvenzhane Wallis)
So who will it be this year?December 24, 2014 at 2:40 pm #170025
I can picture both Wilkinson and Ejogo getting surprise nominations
for SELMA…Laura Dern in WILD would be a surprise at this point with no
precursors…Naomi Watts and Zack Galifinakis for BIRDMAN could happen
if Birdman picked up 5 acting noms..Kristen Stewart benefits from acting
opposite Julianne Moore in STILL ALICE..
In supporting, i feel weakness from DUVALL, RUFFALO, STREEP
and even CHASTAIN..
So if Gyllenhaal and Aniston are NOT shocking at this point, then I
suppose surprises could come from COTILLARD who is getting raves
for her film…Amy Adams at this point would be a surprise but i dont think
she is happening this year…BLUNT has no shot..it would be shocking.
For me, SPALL for Mr. Turner would not be shocking although most
people are not predicting him..The best surprise for me would be
RALPH FIENNES FOR THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL….I think the
vulnerable leads are CARELL AND JONES…December 24, 2014 at 3:12 pm #170026
Riz Ahmed or Rene RussoDecember 24, 2014 at 3:12 pm #170027
I have Chris Pine for Into the Woods and Carmen Ejogo for Selma both in my predictions. I think Pine can get in if his movies big and people are surprised by his performance along with the fact that I think Duvall is extremely vulnerable for the 5th spot, and I think Ejogo can get in like Jacki Weaver. Riding in on the coattails of her loved movie, with reviews to match.
BUT usually theres only one each year, so i feel like I need to pick one of them. BUT I CAN’T DECIDE! I feel like Ejogo is more likely but I just can’t settle on anyone to put in place of Pine (I am seeing ItW tonight though, can’t wait!) I know it will most likely only be one of them but I’m probably just going to end up going back and forth on it for weeks and then leaving them both in till nomination day because I just can’t decide.December 24, 2014 at 3:20 pm #170028
I am going with Blunt. I have a feeling it will go with Glode win then the nomination. Blunt and her husband have so many friends in HollywoodDecember 24, 2014 at 4:55 pm #170029
Carmen Ejogo seems like a likely suprise nominee (but let me see Selma first and then decide, lol)
Naomi Watts for either film would be a welcome suprise.
I think Ralph Fiennes has a decent shot at scoring a suprise Best Actor nomination… He’s way more overdue for another nom than say Jake G. Also, he carries his film and leads a huge cast… plus its looking more and more like Grand Budapest will be nominated for Best Picture and maybe even a suprise Best Director nom. Also, I don’t think Steve Carrell is getting in. I was not impressed by his performance… good effort in the dramatic field, but… Oscar worthy? Eh.
Also, I keep hearing good things about Bradley Cooper and his movie is getting decent reviews. 3rd nomination for a popular actor in a Clint Eastwood film??? Maybe.December 24, 2014 at 5:23 pm #170030
I have no idea if there will actually be any this year, but if there are, my gut says:
– Any of the supporting characters in Nightcrawler, but only if Gyllenhaal gets in.
– Chastain for Elenor Rigby
– Cotillard fot TDON
– Dern or WattsDecember 24, 2014 at 7:40 pm #170031
At this point, I will be surprised with either the Gyllenhaal or Carell nomination. No matter who gets in, the other is snubbed. And then if Spall gets in, they’re both snubbed. It’s a no-win situation.December 24, 2014 at 11:05 pm #170032
I hope it’s Agata in “Ida” in supporting actress. She won the LA film critics award and she was so heartbreakingly good in “Ida.” I will keep dreaming though. 🙂December 24, 2014 at 11:07 pm #170033
Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night
Tilda Swinton for Snowpiercer
Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Josh Brolin for Inherent ViceDecember 24, 2014 at 11:31 pm #170034
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
Rene Russo, NightcrawlerDecember 25, 2014 at 4:16 am #170035
I hope at least one of these can make the cut:
Renee Russo, Nightcrawler
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Agata Kulesza, Ida
Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
And if Miss Julie is eligible:
Samantha Morton & Colin Farrell (though Jessica Chastian deserves a Razzie for this, she was beyond dreadful)December 25, 2014 at 5:08 am #170036
Marion Cotillard for Best Actress
Tilda Swinton, Rene Russo, or Agata Kulesza for Best Supporting Actress
Josh Brolin for Best Supporting Actor
Ralph Fiennes or Brendan Gleeson for Best Actor (latter is me being hopeful). Hopefully Tom Hardy can some how squeeze in. He did win LAFCA and they have a pretty good track record with who might get in.December 25, 2014 at 5:58 am #170037
Jude Law for Dom Hemingway