December 18, 2013 at 4:29 pm #124554
Every year we see surprise nominees and snubs thanks to the Oscars’ preferential balloting system, in which it is most important for contenders to get #1 votes to remain in play. This helps contenders with passionate support, and works against contenders that are “respected, but not loved.”
Who do you think is helped/hurt by preferential balloting this year?December 18, 2013 at 4:40 pm #124556
Her I really think will be a big winner out of the preferential balloting, as will American Hustle, 12YAS, Gravity, Llewyn Davis and Nebraska.
And the losers will probably be All is Lost and Blue Jasmine (besides their leads), as well as The Butler and A:OC.
I’m also a bit in the middle over how Nebraska and Captain Phillips will be affected by it.December 18, 2013 at 4:45 pm #124557
Helped: Joaquin Phoenix in “Her”
I believe this system is what got him nominated last year. Her seems to have the art house support of the year, and Phoenix seems to be well-liked by Academy members (despite his comments), as they have nominated him with prettymuch every chance they’ve been given.
Hurt: Robert Redford in “All Is Lost”
Redford is doing little campaigning, and his film has been credited as much more of a directorial achievement. There have been criticisms of him being “one-dimensional” in the role. He will probably be listed on many ballots, but not in the #1 spot.
Helped: Sally Hawkins in “Blue Jasmine”
With Academy members reportedly going bonkers for this film, she could ride the film’s coattails a la Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook. Or possibly, she could ride Cate’s coattails a la Maggie Gyllenhaal/Jeff Bridges.
Hurt: Oprah Winfrey in “The Butler”
A movie that is a distant memory for many, somewhat overshadowed by 12 Years a Slave, with mixed to good-not-great reviews. With the onslaught of competition, can Oprah really hold on to voters’ #1 spots?
Helped: Adele Exarchopoulos in “Blue Is the Warmest Color”
People who see this movie really love this performance. The problem will be getting voters to see it. If enough of the acting branch sees it, she could rack up those #1 votes with the passion she seems to be generating.
Hurt: Judi Dench in “Philomena” and Emma Thompson in “Saving Mr. Banks”
I’ve only seen Dench of the two, but I can see both of these performances appealing to a very similar group of voters. If this group is split between the two, do they both meet the minimum threshold?
Helped: Spike Jonze for “Her”
A well-liked director with a critically adored film and possibly the art-house contender of the year. Previous holder of the famous “lone director slot.” People who like him really like him.
Hurt: Paul Greengrass for “Captain Phillips”
I personally think this film is one of the best directed of the year, but Greengrass may not be able to survive the onslaught of late bloomers (a la Affleck), the power of the high-metacritic scorers (12Yrs and Gravity) or the whisper campaign his film was hit with (a la Bigelow).
Possibly both: Martin Scorsese for “The Wolf of Wall Street”
The film appears to be extremely divisive. This is good if enough voters fall on the positive end of the spectrum (a la Amour or Tree of Life) but bad if voters land on the negative end (a la Les Miserables or Atonement).December 18, 2013 at 4:58 pm #124558
Scarlett Johansson could benefit from this as you said passionate voters over respect liked actors with articles around and support for those type roles and performance some might push all they can get. think if sally get in nod and scarlett doesn’t a bit of bad press would follow as it is a filler (sorry sally).December 18, 2013 at 5:06 pm #124559
I think Captain Philips, as a movie, will be hurt.. But Barkad Abdi will be helped..December 18, 2013 at 5:20 pm #124560
Definitely Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlett Johansson and everything “Her”-related. That movie has passionate support written all over it.December 18, 2013 at 6:06 pm #124561
Scarlett Johansson. i can see voters who love her work in Her, putting her in at #1 in an attempt to get her nominated. Will it bet enough? Probably not, but you never know.December 18, 2013 at 9:32 pm #124562
I was going to say Johansson to but it looks like people beat me to it. I think her performance is unique enough that people who love it will REALLY love it
I also think the two supporting actor unknowns, Barkahd Abdi and Daniel Bruhl will be helped. The fact that they’re getting in means people really remember them, and go out of their way to find out their name and put them down. i could see them getting number 1 votes.
And while I still think he’ll be nominated, I think Gandolfini could be hurt by this. It’s very much a “respected not loved” performance like Beau said, although supposedly voters are really loving the movie.December 30, 2013 at 4:47 pm #124563
bumpDecember 30, 2013 at 5:03 pm #124564
Meryl could get hurt over unknows or amy people really love them her could win (not just for scarlett) over 12 years a slave for best picture same with american hustle (which has storng best cast SAG awards protenial) on type of film they are they have more cult follow kinda love than the dramatic ones.