July 19, 2014 at 8:10 pm #156552
I know it’s very early to predict but I’m too much of an awards nerd not to. Who do you think will be the nominees? Which will win?July 19, 2014 at 8:33 pm #156554
I voted for How To Train Your Dragon 2, however I have my doubts. We still have not seen Boxtrolls or Big Hero yet and I think Boxtrolls looks excellent and will likely give Laika the much-deserved award. I think that because a third film in the Dragon franchise is confirmed, it is likely that they will award the third one with a win to “honor the series” like they did with Return of the King winning Best Picture.July 19, 2014 at 8:39 pm #156555
The Lego Movie I think has the slight edge. How to Train Your Dragon 2 could win as a payback since Toy Story 3 was the obvious choice in 2010. But The Lego Movie has slightly better reviews even though some of How to Train Your Dragon 2 were perfect scores. In my opinion, The Lego Movie is the better movie and deserves to win. The Boxtrolls could be a sneaky frontrunner but it all depends when it comes out. Big Hero 6 is a question mark right now. Mr. Peabody and Sherman was ok so I doubt it will even get nominated. Hey you forgot to included The Nut Job! (Only kidding. Like that will ever happen). There is also usually 1 or 2 foriegn picks that are included in the mixJuly 19, 2014 at 9:08 pm #156556
I think it’s between The Lego Movie and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Both were brilliant films and I would be happy with either one winning. People are still talking about The Lego Movie and it has been on top of the Home Video charts for weeks, so my guess right now is it. I would also love for Boxtrolls to be a spoiler here.July 19, 2014 at 9:40 pm #156557
Lego has superior reviews and superior box office on a lower budget. And flew past all reasonable expectations in all ways.July 19, 2014 at 10:14 pm #156558
For some reason, I feel like Book of life will suprise everyone and take the oscar
July 19, 2014 at 10:21 pm #156559
I’m looking at this list, and the 5 likely nominees seem to jump off the list. Lego and Dragon are almost 100% getting in. The Boxtrolls and Big Hero 6 have huge potential and I could especially see the Boxtrolls being hugely competitive. The last one, I’m not entirely sure of, but The Book of Life looks like it could get nominated, but not be especially competitive.
I picked The Boxtrolls, but I will obviously change that if it disappoints.July 19, 2014 at 10:40 pm #156560
Nominees willl be:
Big Hero 6
How To Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie
Mr. Peabody and Sherman
I can’t even predict the winner now. It is a very close race between Lego Movie and Dragon 2. I would pick Dragon 2, but I just have to wait and see the direction the other award shows will be going with this.July 19, 2014 at 10:42 pm #156561
and I hope Boxtrolls will be great and smash them both into the groundJuly 20, 2014 at 12:33 am #156562
Mr. Peabody and Sherman has no chance, The Book of Life looks ok nothing amazing.July 20, 2014 at 2:36 am #156563
To answer this question, I need to do a little analysis, so just bear with me
In my opinion, the studio makes a difference in who wins. The breakdown of the studios that have won this award are as follows:
DISNEY PIXAR (7)
- Finding Nemo (2003)
- The Incredibles (2004
- Ratatouille (2007)
- WALL-E (2008)
- Up (2009)
- Toy Story 3 (2010)
- Brave (2012)
- Shrek (2001)
- Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005)
STUDIO GHIBLI (1)
- Spirited Away (2002)
ANIMAL LOGIC (1)
- Happy Feet (2001)
WALT DISNEY ANIMATION (1)
- Frozen (2013)
- Rango (2011)
So its quite clear that Pixar has a stranglehold on this category (which is obvious, even without these statistics). If you look at the six years they didn’t win, it is because they didn’t have any big films that year. They were flat-out snubbed this year for Monster’s University, and instead their creative partner Disney won. In 2011, they released Cars 2, which was critically blasted, just like how in 2006, when they didn’t win was for Cars. They didn’t have a film in 2005, nor in 2002. The only time they lost in a fair fight was the very first year of this award, where Monsters Inc. lost to Shrek. If Pixar has a film in contention, we are stupid not to consider it an early frontrunner. Disney SHOULD be a good runner-up, as they won this year for Frozen, but the fact that a critically acclaimed (and far superior) film like Wreck-It Ralph lost to the very divisive Brave shows that Pixar is still the frontrunner in this category
Except they don’t have a film in contention this year, and therefore the next logical successor would be either Disney or Dreamworks. This year, Disney has Big Hero 6, and to be honest it doesn’t look like a winner. It is clear that Oscar winners love warmer stories, and especially ones with a supernatural/fantasy element to it. I just don’t see Big Hero 6 being the next big Disney hit. Dreamworks has How to Train Your Dragon 2, which is a great film. It may be flawed, but it improves on the original and it is very creative and beautifully animated. It fits the criteria for many of the other winners in this category, and it may very well go on to win the Oscar.
Except The Lego Movie stands it its way. I think The Lego Movie is very creative and beautifully done, and in a way is a logical successor to the Toy Story films, which if this category existed in 1995, would have won for all three its films. I think The Lego Movie is the logical winner here, but it depends on how the voters see it – will they go for the epic, more beautifully made film (HTTYD 2) or the fun, pop-culture hit (The Lego Movie). As of now, it has to go to one of the two. I don’t see any of the others getting wins, but the nominations will be made up of The Lego Movie, How to Train Your Dragon 2, The Boxtrolls, Big Hero 6 and an obscure foreign animation that has become a staple in this category (I am still hoping Last Days of Coney Island gets made so Ralph Bakshi can win his overdue Oscar).
So my final verdict is…How to Train Your Dragon 2 will win, but it won’t be a slam-dunk season like Frozen had, but instead one like the year before, where it toggled between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph
Sorry for the long post everyoneJuly 20, 2014 at 11:15 am #156564
^Good analysis there. The one thing I would counter with is that maybe it’s time for another stopmotion winner? There is a good amount of support for the medium, and if The Boxtrolls is excellent, it might have momentum simply because it will be recent. Monsters University was an early release last year and couldn’t get nominated, and though the Croods was nominated, it was so far in the past that it was never looked at as a serious contender. Can a movie from February like LEGO really maintain the necessary momentum?July 20, 2014 at 11:32 am #156565
The Lego Movie, which I found hilarious, is inviting plenty of “controversy” from several sectors, religious, political and social, and in several countries (who admit as much).
I think this could help the film even more, although Dragon will probably win. Way too early to say, but there it is.July 20, 2014 at 11:42 am #156566
I can imagine ‘HTTYD 2’ winning, but so far my favorite by a mile is ‘The Lego Movie’.July 20, 2014 at 12:52 pm #156567
I think The LEGO Movie is the current frontrunner. I prefer How To Train Your Dragon, but neither its reviews nor box office has proven to be on LEGO’s level.
I don’t think we should count out the GKIDS options. They’ve become a fixture in this category, and they have some pretty strong contenders. I’m as confident as one can be about these things this far out that master Isao Takahata is a shoo-in for at least a nomination for his swan song The Tale of Princess Kaguya, which got stellar reviews out of Cannes. Here’s a gorgeous six minute trailer for it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lDrkokymLQ
They also have Song of the Sea, by the same guys who surprised a few years ago for Secret of Kells, with very striking visuals that the Animation branch responds to. I’m not as certain about this one, but it looks promising and GKIDS has proven able to snag a couple of slots at a time (2011 for example, when both A Cat in Paris/Chico & Rita pushed their way in over the likes of Cars 2, Rio, Winnie the Pooh, and most notably Tintin).
I’m predicting those four, plus The Boxtrolls. That kind of detailed stop motion work tends to be appreciated in this category.