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Why I think “Wolf” will be the Oscar Dark Horse

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  • Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #117321

    The Wolf of Wall Street is a film directed by Martin Scorsese, and written by Terence Winter, his first film script after winning two Emmys for his work on The Sopranos. It stars Leonardo DiCaprio, also exec. producer, as Jordan Bellfort, a New York stockbroker who is living large, refusing to cooperate when he is accused of security fraud. It also stars Jonah Hill, Jean Dujardin, Jon Favreau, Jon Bernthal, Rob Reiner and Matthew McConaughey. It has a Christmas Day release.

    Seeing the two trailers released for the film, and knowing how many hits the DiCaprio-Scorsese combo have amassed, it would not surprise me in the least if Wolf actually becomes a dark horse at the Oscars, both in nominations or even wins.

    The reason I feel is that this being their fifth or sixth combination, DiCaprio and Scorsese have had hit after hit, starting with Gangs of New York, earning itself ten Oscar nominations. After that it was The Aviator, one of DiCaprio’s best performances to date, and a film I feel was second for the Best Picture race behind Million Dollar Baby. The Aviator managed 11 nominations and 5 wins. The Departed broke through to win Best Picture and gave Marty his first ever win for Best Director. Leo just missed a nomination for playing Billy Costigan, Jr. in the film. Shutter Island was not as huge as the other films, but it managed to gain a bit of a cult following and while the Oscars weren’t fond of it, other awards were, giving it nominations O’plenty.

    Now we come to Wolf of Wall Street. I think this looks like classic Scorsese. A rich satire on the New York stockbroking companies along with first-rate performances. A lot of people in GoldDerby are even thinking that Leo could potentially pounce on Bruce Dern and break through with a nomination. Others say Jonah Hill is a standout, and I think Matthew McConaughey, who is having one hell of a year by the way, is hilarious. “Fairy dust” (if you didn’t watch the trailer, you wouldn’t get that reference, but that is my favourite line in the trailer).

    I don’t think that the Oscars are going to be over the moon over “Twelve Years a Slave” or “Gravity” as much as we think so. After all, one of them is about slavery, and takes off it’s child gloves when telling it, and the other is a drama disguised as a sci-fi film. I’m thinking that, while both films could attract high nomination counts come nomination morning, that Wolf and maybe even American Hustle, will be the big things.

    Now I sit and wait for the critics to tear apart both films (I am always wrong with these predictions).

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    Anonymous
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    #117323

    I don’t think a Scorsese film with this subject matter and such can be considered a dark horse as such. It’s not like it’s Slumdog or Hurt Locker or King’s Speech or The Artist, from directors who hadn’t frequently been called OMGBestestEvahs.

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    Beau S.
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    #117324

    Yeah, I don’t see how it’s a dark horse. I’d guess that a big majority of the posters here have it in their BP and BD predictions.

    Excellent write-up though.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #117325

    I don’t think a Scorsese film with this subject matter and such can be considered a dark horse as such. It’s not like it’s Slumdog or Hurt Locker or King’s Speech or The Artist, from directors who hadn’t frequently been called OMGBestestEvahs.

    Yeah, maybe they won’t go for the subject matter, but then again Slumdog had some disturbing scenes/images in it. Remember when that guy made the kid blind with a spoon? *shudder*

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    benbraddock
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    #117326

    I think Scorsese was pressured by the studio to cut up his film
    and get some presentable version ready for release in 2013.
    I felt from the original trailer that this was minor Scorsese,if
    not terrible..He has his fans…I am one, but this and Leo look like crap.
    It will open and go away quickly..

    My prediction is  zero nominations..

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    vinny
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    #117327

    I have such high hopes for this movie. Leo is my favorite living actor and i can’t name a bad Scorsesse movie……the cast is amazing. trailor looked killer. plot seems great. win win all around.

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    Tom O’Neil
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    #117328

    On a lark, I moved up Wolf to my top position in my predictions — here’s hoping I’m RIGHT …. Otherwise, I’m switching back to Gravity

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    PJ Edwards
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    #117329

    Now I sit and wait for the critics to tear apart both films (I am always wrong with these predictions).

     So true. Critics have already chosen thier Best Picture, so why would they need to give good reviews to anything else.

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    Ryan Earle
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    #117330

    I have a feeling this will be a year like social network/kings speech where critics go for one movie and Hollywood goes for another. 12 years being social network.

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    AMG
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    #117331

    If it’s anything other than absolute perfection, it won’t win a thing. The Academy will nominate it, but it won’t win, as they may feel they’ve finally given him his Directing Oscar for The Departed, and they’ll leave it at that (just see last year with Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty).

    At best it will get five nominations, without a win. 

    The film has a good shot at Globes success though, just as The Aviator & Hugo managed, but Oscars won’t go for it.

    The true ‘dark horse’ is the one film left to see that has a genuine shot at the top honours (so not really an underdog) – American Hustle. But again, O’Russell fatigue may begin to set in after several big nods in the past 3 years for The Fighter & Silver Linings. 

    Looks like this awards season is wrapped up before it’s even begun unfortunately. 12 Years & Gravity remain the only films capable of winning Best Picture, and in two months time, momentum may have all but gone from one of the two. 

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    Halo_Insider
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    #117332

    If it’s anything other than absolute perfection, it won’t win a thing. The Academy will nominate it, but it won’t win, as they may feel they’ve finally given him his Directing Oscar for The Departed, and they’ll leave it at that (just see last year with Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty).

    At best it will get five nominations, without a win. 

    The film has a good shot at Globes success though, just as The Aviator & Hugo managed, but Oscars won’t go for it.

    The true ‘dark horse’ is the one film left to see that has a genuine shot at the top honours (so not really an underdog) – American Hustle. But again, O’Russell fatigue may begin to set in after several big nods in the past 3 years for The Fighter & Silver Linings. 

    Looks like this awards season is wrapped up before it’s even begun unfortunately. 12 Years & Gravity remain the only films capable of winning Best Picture, and in two months time, momentum may have all but gone from one of the two. 

    I’m not sure if “fatigue” is the right term to describe Russell’s status right now. If anything, this could be seen as the point he’s been culminating towards. To get in for both The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook shows genuine support from the Directors Branch, and the Academy clearly appreciates how he guides his actors as well. 

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    Renaton
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    #117333

    Three consecutive BP nominees is very hard to pull off. Scorsese and freaking Daldry did it, but few pull it off. Even Eastwood and the Coens had films in between their nominees streak that didn’t get in. So I think Russell and American Hustle are by no means locks. And I think Scorsese has a bit of an unexpected hold on Academy members recently. BUT this does look like one of the riskier, edgier Scorsese work in ages, as it looks like pitch black satire, with very dark humour, and very cynical and cold hearted. It can get in because it’s Scorsese, but the tone of the film alone makes it less likely than his more audience-friendly films of the past decade.

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    AnneBoleyn
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    #117334

    On a lark, I moved up Wolf to my top position in my predictions — here’s hoping I’m RIGHT …. Otherwise, I’m switching back to Gravity

    Glad to see that you’re not predicting Jonah Hill:-) I think he’s pretty great, actually, and deserving of the Moneyball nomination, but, By Jove, if Wolf gets best picture, director and supporting actor and DiCaprio is snubbed again – that’ll just be too much.

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    adamunc
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    #117335

    I’m not much of a fan of Scorsese or DiCaprio, but even given that, the trailer I saw before Blue Jasmine was horrendous. There was a definitive “WTF?” rumbling through the whole audience.

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    Ghost
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    #117336

    Currently have it in 5th for BP and 4th for Director. The Academy isn’t in a rush to give Scorsese another Oscar yet, and maybe not until he does a final film.

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