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Why is Denzel Washington going to win the Oscar?

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  • Miles
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    #1202019333

    Before SAG, you would have been crazy not to pick Casey Affleck to win Best Actor for his beautifully restrained work in Manchester by the Sea. He nearly swept with the Critics Groups, he won the Critics Choice (beating Denzel), the Golden Globe (beating Denzel) and then went on to lose at SAG to Denzel. Since then, it seems like the whole race has changed. I, for one, don’t get it. I don’t think that there is really anything else to base predicting Denzel off of besides SAG. The statistic I keep seeing being thrown around is that 18/22 of the Best Actor winners at SAG went on to win the Oscar, (counting Benicio del Toro in Traffic who went on to win Best Supporting Actor) But I think that this is a misleading statistic. How is a Best Actor race different than a Best Supporting Actress race? It’s really not. They’re both acting races, they’re both voted on by the same group of people. There’s no different criteria to win a Best Actor Oscar than to win a Best Supporting Actress Oscar. So then why should we be throwing out statistics judging them separately? The reason I bring this up is that Best Actor wins at SAG that translate into Oscar glory are higher than in the other categories. I don’t think we should let that Best Actor statistic affect our predictions. Instead, we should look at how many SAG winners in every category translated their SAG wins into Oscar wins. That statistic would be 63/88, which is still high, but not as high as the Best Actor statistic would want you to believe. I don’t think that just winning at SAG and nothing else will get you an Oscar, let alone a third Oscar. I am predicting Casey Affleck for the Oscar on Sunday. But I want to understand. So, this is my plea. To all the people predicting Denzel Washington to win his third Oscar on Sunday, please help me understand why, and good luck in your predictions nonetheless.

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    Taywold
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    #1202019446

    Denzel has some chance but I think Casey will most probably win

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    GraemeONeil
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    #1202022383

    Here’s our recap of Denzel’s Oscar history: https://www.facebook.com/ETCanada/videos/1344343348945982/

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    Swords
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    #1202022403

    I agree with the OP 100%. I still see a clear Oscar win for Affleck despite his SAG loss, and I definitely agree that including other acting categories in that statistic is the far more reasonable approach to SAG indication that Best Actor alone. With that said, a lot of people see parallels with Washington and Crowe back in 2001. Crowe won every televised precursor and still lost to Washington at the Oscars because of Crowe’s scandal at the time. It’s very similar to Affleck and Washington this year. Affleck wins many precursors but his scandal could possibly affect the voter’s decisions with Washington winning in the end. However, the key difference is that Crowe won Best Actor in just the previous year. So it would have been harder awarding him a consecutive time. Secondly, Washington is contending for his THIRD Oscar, which will likely affect his chances. Plus televised precursors mean a lot more to the race now than it did back then. e.g. SAG is more accurate in recent years than it used to be a decade ago.

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    janbryan
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    #1202022424

    Affleck will definitely break the SAG Best Actor streak!

    https://letterboxd.com/janbryan/

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #1202022646

    I think that one of the things that keeps me from picking Affleck is his attitude on the campaign. I think the academy generally knows about his controversy, and it’s not like he is representing himself well. The SAG win affirmed Denzel as the only other option for voters who dislike his performance or him in general. I still could see either of them winning, making this one of the biggest toss ups of the night for me.

    Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202022857

    My hunch remains that SAG was basically a career win for Washington and Affleck, baggage and all, is still the Oscar front-runner tonight. It’s pretty much a coin flip, though.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    Anonymous
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    #1202022877

    It was a career win for Washington, just like it was with Jodie Foster, Julie Christie and others. If you had great career and you have never won SAG then if you aren’t competing with an actor of the same stature as you who’s front-runner, you’re going to win.

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    pulp50
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    #1202022885

    I think this is the year Casey breaks the streak, but I’m not confident about it. I guess it’s hard to go against SAG when they’ve been right I think 12 years in a row now. You have to wonder about the voters motivations behind it too, was it backlash to Casey’s sexual harassment allegations, or a we owe you one to Denzel, or a little of both, or did they just genuinely like Denzel more (Yeah,  right) even if it was Casey backlash, I don’t think other branches will feel as inclined to make a political statement against him. The actors are the most liberal branch and they want people to know it because they’re also the most egotistical. Denzel definitely might win, I really think it’s going to be a tight vote count, with Gosling riding the LLL train to a lot of votes as well.

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202022899

    I think that one of the things that keeps me from picking Affleck is his attitude on the campaign. I think the academy generally knows about his controversy, and it’s not like he is representing himself well. The SAG win affirmed Denzel as the only other option for voters who dislike his performance or him in general. I still could see either of them winning, making this one of the biggest toss ups of the night for me.

    Why in the world is Denzel “the only other option”?  There are 3 other perfectly good candidates, two of them previous nominees so in good standing with the Academy beyond a “one-hit wonder”.

    Think about how long it took Meryl to get 3 Oscars.  That hump from second to third is usually epic and I can see plenty of people just as resistant to give Denzel his third as they are Casey his first.

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    ZegemaBeach
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    #1202022905

    Viggo wins with 24 per cent of the vote. Well, I wish.

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    distain
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    #1202022913

    I think that one of the things that keeps me from picking Affleck is his attitude on the campaign. I think the academy generally knows about his controversy, and it’s not like he is representing himself well. The SAG win affirmed Denzel as the only other option for voters who dislike his performance or him in general. I still could see either of them winning, making this one of the biggest toss ups of the night for me.

    Why in the world is Denzel “the only other option”? There are 3 other perfectly good candidates, two of them previous nominees so in good standing with the Academy beyond a “one-hit wonder”.

    Think about how long it took Meryl to get 3 Oscars. That hump from second to third is usually epic and I can see plenty of people just as resistant to give Denzel his third as they are Casey his first.

    Meryl is hardly some hard-done-by victim. She gets virtually automatic nominations for performances that might be ignored for any other actress. The Academy never thought they were doing anything wrong towards Meryl by not giving her a 3rd, because it had become very clear that no actor or actress find it easier to get nominated than her.

    Denzel is not an automatic nomination like Streep. If he gets nominated, he’s getting career best level reviews. It’s a very different set of circumstances.

    I think Denzel is the only realistic option to Casey because of the SAG win. No one is going to go with the other nominees without serious hardware (Gosling’s comedy/musical Golden Globe was such a gimme, that I don’t think it counts). SAG is the biggest indicator of how actors rate a performance.

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    Zach Lozano
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    #1202022970

    I think the simplest answer to this question is that he gives the better performance.

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    megdalinin
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    #1202023017

    If Denzel wins,Academy is definitely pandering because it was the most overrated performance of the year

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