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Why is Ridley Scott the presumed front runner? What are the chances of a win?

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  • youngfella
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    #204420

    So I’m still seeing Ridley Scott Leading with the experts as the presumed front runner to win Best Director, and I’m having a hard time seeing that happen as of right now. I totally understand the overdue narative of a celebrated director, I loved the Martian and would have no problems if he does win.
    But the momentum of The Martian seemed to fizzle, lack of SAG does not help and Mad Max seemed to be emerging as the stronger alternative. Other than Best director, what else can the Martian win? All the techs and crafts I could see going to Mad Max or Star Wars over it, and I’m not too confident on its screenplay either. Even with recent examples of Ang Lee and Cuaron getting the split, their films still got a few other Oscars, and I’m not seeing the same happening for The Martian. Any of you guys know of some examples of Best Director being the only win for a film, would love to here your thoughts.

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    Riley
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    #204422

    This has been covered in a few other threads, but yeah, this Ridley Scott stuff is nonsense.  Well done to the Oscar blogosphere for creating this narrative and pushing it so hard that the Globes and Critics bought into it, but the academy will not care about Scott being supposedly overdue because The Martian is not going anywhere and if they really cared about him, maybe they would have nominated him in the last thirteen years or given him Best Director when he did the Best Picture.  There was no reason for it to get shut out of SAG and that is the only industry precursor that we have so far.  The potential was there and I would think that The Martian would appeal to all of those people who voted Argo for Best Picture, but it looks like it was just a bit too early and the reviews were not quite excellent enough to make it prestige fare.

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    Tony Ruiz
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    #204423

    We talked about this a lot in the slugfest with Matt yesterday.  Scott needs to win the Globe AND it needs to win a globe either for Damon or for Comedy Picture in order for the film to get any momentum.

    I could really see them going for George Miller instead.   

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    Sagand
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    #204424

    I think ‘The Martian’ could well do a ‘Captain Phillips’ and go missing in Director/Actor on nominations morning.

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    Riley
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    #204425

    Scott needs to win the Globe if he wants to have a hope of winning the Oscar, but it will be no help if he is not even nominated and Oscar ballots are due before the Globe ceremony.

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    JOHN
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    #204426

    I also don’t buy the Ridley Scott talk. I think George Miller will take this. He’s been winning all the critics awards so far for Best Director and he is very well known and admired in the Academy. Plus, the person who wins this award always has the Best Picture of the year or the second Best picture of the year. And The Martian won’t end up as their number one or their number two, there’s no momentum for it. Spotlight and Mad Max Fury Road have plenty of buzz and momentum, so I see one of those taking the award. 

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    Atypical
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    #204427

    Scott making this unexpected mainstream box office hit after a string of duds should get him to that directing Oscar nomination. And I’m guessing there will be some Academy members who remember voting for “Gladiator” in BP and wanting to make amends of sorts for him losing that year. It’s unfortunate timing that here comes George Miller taking all of that veteran director momentum away from Scott. I totally get where the narrative is coming from though. The Globes/BFCA nominations did the necessary groundwork for Scott’s Oscar nod, I think.

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    Jason Travis
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    #204428

    I don’t get why George Miller is considered overdue over Ridley Scott. That boggles me. Scott has a far more impressive lineup of past films, and he’s been nominated before. How is Miller even close?

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    Bradley Weir
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    #204429

    His chances are 0%. Miller, Innaritu and McCarthy are well ahead.

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    Sagand
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    #204430

    I don’t get why George Miller is considered overdue over Ridley Scott. That boggles me. Scott has a far more impressive lineup of past films, and he’s been nominated before. How is Miller even close?

    I don’t understand where the sentiment that they are going to give the Best Director prize to someone because they think they are overdue has come from. Where are the examples of this in Oscar history? Best Director has always been tied to Best Picture and failing that to a directorial achievement. If Miller wins it’ll because Mad Max was a strong in best picture and a directorial achievement (as demonstrated by the bucket load of critics prizes). 

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    Jason Travis
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    #204431

    [quote=”Jason_Travis”]

    I don’t get why George Miller is considered overdue over Ridley Scott. That boggles me. Scott has a far more impressive lineup of past films, and he’s been nominated before. How is Miller even close?

    I don’t understand where the sentiment that they are going to give the Best Director prize to someone because they think they are overdue has come from. Where are the examples of this in Oscar history? Best Director has always been tied to Best Picture and failing that to a directorial achievement. If Miller wins it’ll because Mad Max was a strong in best picture and a directorial achievement (as demonstrated by the bucket load of critics prizes). 
    [/quote]

    That’s my point- George Miller is being touted to win because he’s overdue. And I was stating that he’s not nearly as overdue as Scott. The favorite to win Best Picture right now is Spotlight- which is still boggling to me. Mad Max is going to have to overcome a lot of hurdles to win Best Picture, especially if The Martian AND Star Wars also compete, easily taking votes from it.  

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    Atypical
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    #204432

    Miller is getting this response on the strength of his directing achievement alone, not for being “overdue” for anything. He’s already an Oscar winner! The overdue narrative is working in Scott’s favor, not Miller’s.

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    Riley
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    #204433

    George Miller being allegedly overdue to win this particular award is just a bonus.  What Sagand said is why he will actually win (unless Tom McCarthy gets carried by the Best Picture like Tom Hooper).

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    Jason Travis
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    #204434

    I understand it’s also an achievement for Miller, but so was Scott’s Martian. The overdue argument HAS been thrown around in regards to Miller- on several sites including this one. It all boils down to DGA, but I think Scott def deserves recgonition over Miller in terms of his movie AND his overall career, both of which will factor in. 

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    Bradley Weir
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    #204435

    Yeah all I hear is “If there’s one thing about the Oscars, they are sentimental”

    Are they heck! I want these examples.

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