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Why The Revenant?

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  • MrScreenAddict
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    #217837

    I’m just trying to wrap my head around why so many pundits — and us casual prognosticators — are suddenly so ALL Revenant ALL the time. What is it that has clinched it so securely in so many people’s minds? I remember, even after Iñárritu won DGA, many people were still sticking with The Big Short (or Spotlight for some) for BP, saying that in such a divisive year, a BP/BD split was totally feasible. I even remember some people saying that they would still be sticking with this prediction even if TR won BAFTA… and then when it *did* win BAFTA, those same people switched their predictions anyway!

    So what gives? What am I not seeing that’s making everyone else so confident? What’s so much more crucial about TR’s win with the Brits than its win with the directors? Isn’t this just like last year all over again, when so many pundits stuck with Boyhood because of its double-whammy at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, ignoring the fact that the Guilds all went for Birdman? This year, the GGs and BAFTA went for TR, so the pundits are falling for the same thing all over again, ignoring the fact that TBS has actually performed much more reliably with the major Guilds. (Obviously I’m not talking about technical Guilds like sound or cinematography since TBS was never going to be up for those.)

    TBS has won a critical trifecta of Guild awards — PGA, WGA, ACE — and was nominated for literally every single other significant precursor. The only important Guild award TR has won is DGA; it lost PGA, it wasn’t even nominated for SAG Cast, it lost ACE to Mad Max, and it’s the rare film whose screenplay was actually eligible for WGA and *still* didn’t even get a nom. So the pundits are predicting it to win based solely off of its wins at the GGs and BAFTA… BOTH of which, interestingly enough, neglected to award Iñárritu and Birdman last year and BOTH of which, equally interestingly, happen to be *foreign* organizations that are perhaps more likely to award a universal man vs. nature story like TR than a very, very American film like TBS.

    I’m not saying I’m “confident” that TBS will win BP; if it had won SAG Cast or managed to upset at BAFTA, then I would feel much better about my prediction. But I’m also nowhere *near* confident about TR, and I’m just not seeing why so many people are. This race has been unsettled all season long and I think that at this point a lot of people are just grasping onto pretty much anything to make them feel secure in their predictions only one week away from the ceremony.

    Since I lack confidence to make the call in either direction, it seems to me that the only sane course of action in a year that has been as divided as this one is to follow the Guilds, award by award:

    Picture –> PGA –> TBS
    Director –> DGA –> Iñárritu
    Acting –> SAG –> DiCaprio/Larson/Vikander (The Oscars’ snub of Elba and SAG’s snub of Stallone make this a moot point in the Supporting Actor race.)
    Screenplay –> WGA –> Spotlight/TBS
    Film Editing –> ACE –> MM:FR or TBS (This is actually the toughest one to call since ACE has two winners. But the ACE Drama winner has only correctly predicted the Oscar winner twice in the last five years, so personally I think I might go with TBS on the strength of its BP frontrunner status. Technically ACE wouldn’t be “wrong” since TBS *did* win, just over on the Comedy side.)

    Is there anyone out there who switched their prediction to TR *after* BAFTA who can explain to me why? I’m genuinely curious.

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    babypook
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    #217839

    76% Metacritic score

    huge box office

    testosterone-driven (voters etc)

    Oscar-winning Director

    LEO

    12 freaking nominations

    the momentum, the wins…

    classic “double chase”

    First Nations ‘sensitivity’

    “O I’m so cold, I’m so cold”

    so much suffering

    Epic

    And that’s without having seen it…..

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    MrScreenAddict
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    #217840

    @babypook, those are all reasons someone could have been predicting TR even before BAFTA. My question is, what is it about TR’s win at BAFTA specifically that seems to have changed so many people’s minds?

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    babypook
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    #217841

    @babypook, those are all reasons someone could have been predicting TR even before BAFTA. My question is, what is it about TR’s win at BAFTA specifically that seems to have changed so many people’s minds?

    Well, since BAFTA represents a percentage of cross-over voters with the Academy, and with their stellar record (barring last year, where they got it ‘right’ in terms of quality….), that’s one reason.

    Momentum is the other imo. All of those factors may have been there for a while, but backing them up with wins all over the place solidifies things for some predictors….

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    thatfilmgirl
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    #217842

    The Revenant seems to be the only movie that’s had some form of a conensus (aka more than 1 win at a major precursor). PGA went to The Big Short, SAG to Spotlight, and DGA/BAFTA/Golden Globe went to The Revenant. Just purely from numbers, The Revenant just seems more likely to me, rather than a sure shot. 

    Either way, we’re betting against some sort of history. 

     

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    Monty
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    #217843

    I choose The Revenant for a few reasons
    1. BAFTA win
    2. DGA win
    3. The Big Short doesn’t win SAG
    4. The Revenant overperformed in nominations especially Tom Hardy, Costome Design and Production Design. 12 nominations suggest support across branches. The Big Short doesn’t overperform in nominations
    5. A film needs to get at least 3 victories to win BP. The Revenant can naturally win Actor, Director, Cinematography, Sound categories. TBS is not the frontrunner for Best Editing. It won ACE Eddie but it didn’t win BAFTA. Mad Max is the frontrunner for Editing.

    BP win for TBS is very likely as well. But more evidence shows TR is a safer choice. 

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    Joe Burns
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    #217844

    I don’t care that The Big Short has won 3 guild awards- the WGA and the ACE aren’t that important since neither of those point to a  Best Picture winner  .  Birdman won the three BIG guild awards and is largely an American film that Hollywood can relate to which  is  the reason it lost at BAFTA.   The  Big Short on the other hand failed to win SAG and DGA and has not taken off in terms of momentum/buzz the way  The Revenant has.  I think it’s BAFTA wins combined with the wins at DGA  make  The  Revenant a hard cotender to beat   especially since it’s surging at the box office and people are loving it.  

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    MrScreenAddict
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    #217845

    I choose The Revenant for a few reasons
    1. BAFTA win
    2. DGA win
    3. The Big Short doesn’t win SAG
    4. The Revenant overperformed in nominations especially Tom Hardy, Costome Design and Production Design. 12 nominations suggest support across branches. The Big Short doesn’t overperform in nominations
    5. A film needs to get at least 3 victories to win BP. The Revenant can naturally win Actor, Director, Cinematography, Sound categories. TBS is not the frontrunner for Best Editing. It won ACE Eddie but it didn’t win BAFTA. Mad Max is the frontrunner for Editing.

    BP win for TBS is very likely as well. But more evidence shows TR is a safer choice. 

    1. BAFTA chose Boyhood last year, look how that turned out.
    2. I definitely think Iñárritu will win BD, but there could still be a BP/BD split.
    3. SAG is the most unreliable of the major guilds.
    4. This is true.
    5. The “needs a Screenplay nom to win BP” hurdle is just as hard for TR to overcome as TBS’s “needs 3 awards to win BP” hurdle, statistically speaking. Also, Whiplash wasn’t the frontrunner for Editing last year either (Boyhood was) and look what happened.

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    Bradley Weir
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    #217846

    Really well written piece, and you certainly have made great points. I think much of the shift to The Revenant has been its momentum. Its PGA loss seems forgotten because since, DGA and BAFTA have both rewarded it.

    This has made me question my own confidence in The Revenant, which until this post was pretty assured. Ultimately, the Film Editing award is going to be a crucial one on Sunday and may be telling of the rest of the night.

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    Eddy Q
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    #217847

    ^ Film Editing will be telling if anything other than Mad Max wins it. If Mad Max wins as most of us are expecting it to, it won’t tell us anything about Best Picture.

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    Damiansport1
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    #217848

    ^ Film Editing will be telling if anything other than Mad Max wins it. If Mad Max wins as most of us are expecting it to, it won’t tell us anything about Best Picture.

    Huh? You are wrong. If Mad Max wins editing then Revenant has BP in the bag. Why? Because that means Big Short can win only 1 more oscar (screenplay). There wasnt BP winner with only 2 oscars since 1953. so its not happening.

    If Revenant wins editing (which is long shot) then you know its sweeping like Titanic or LOTR. If Mad Max wins editing then Revenant takes 4-5, if Big Short wins editing – its winning BP too. for me its easy

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    Andrew Carden
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    #217849

    GG/DGA/BAFTA + massive box-office + incessant buzz about DiCaprio’s performance (which basically is the entire picture) + likelihood of winning multiple other Oscars when others (sans “Mad Max”) are poised to win 1 or less = solid formula to a Best Picture victory

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    Eddy Q
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    #217850

    I wouldn’t totally write off The Big Short’s chances for Best Picture even if it loses Editing. If The Big Short was a stronger frontrunner and had won DGA and/or BAFTA, most people wouldn’t have any qualms with predicting it to win 3: Picture, Director and Screenplay, while still going for Mad Max in Editing. Now it’s almost certain that Iñárritu is winning Director, but because of the PGA and the nature of the preferential ballot, The Big Short cannot be completely written off even if it would only win 2. Almost every year has an anomaly of some sort. This would just be a slightly larger one.

    By the way I’m predicting The Revenant to win, but the only thing that would convince me that The Big Short is completely out the running would be if it shockingly lost Adapted Screenplay. 

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    MrScreenAddict
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    #217851

    Really well written piece, and you certainly have made great points. I think much of the shift to The Revenant has been its momentum. Its PGA loss seems forgotten because since, DGA and BAFTA have both rewarded it.

    This has made me question my own confidence in The Revenant, which until this post was pretty assured. Ultimately, the Film Editing award is going to be a crucial one on Sunday and may be telling of the rest of the night.

    Thanks!

    And yeah, TR’s PGA loss is really huge, imho, and it keeps getting glossed over by the movie’s advocates. If it was really such a clear and obvious BP frontrunner, then *why* didn’t it win there, as every BP winner has the past eight years in a row? And why didn’t it get a SAG Cast nom, which is also usually a prerequisite for a BP win? I know, I know, “it’s Leo’s movie.” But other movies with small ensembles have still received SAG Cast noms before like Beasts Of No Nation this year (basically a two-hander between Idris Elba and Abraham Attah), Doubt (only four people listed in its official nomination) or Million Dollar Baby (only *three* people listed in its official nomination, for Christ’s sake). So what about Tom Hardy? What about Domhnall Gleeson, Will Poulter, Arthur Redcloud, and all the other Native actors? TR easily could’ve gotten a Cast nomination if SAG had liked it enough.

    Agreed that it’ll be basically a done deal after Film Editing is awarded, though. I wonder when in the ceremony that category will come up since from that point on the whole thing will pretty much be a foregone conclusion.

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    Anonymous
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    #217852

    Amazing film, that’s why.

    It’ll deservedly win! Although I prefer “Brooklyn” to win.

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