October 30, 2015 at 11:38 am #196742
I’m curious, will Best Actress frontrunners Jennifer Lawrence and Brie Larson split the the young vote at the Oscars? Academy members tend to be older and like to vote for veteran actresses, which could be bad news for Lawrence/Larson and great news for Cate Blanchett.October 30, 2015 at 11:42 am #196744
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I suppose. But I think if that happens, then it might be Lily Tomlin who benefits if she gets nominated. Sure Blanchett has gotten strong praise, but she already won her 2nd and winning your 3rd is even more difficult. Just ask Meryl Streep. Of course, a Lawrence/Larson split could benefit another young actress: Saoirse Ronan.
Some on Awards Watch have called me crazy for saying this, but I could see a scenario where Ronan wins. One reason is that not only is her performance beloved, but her film as well and it has apparently provoked some emotional responses from those that have seen it. But it is key for your film to have support in other areas besides your own. Also, Brooklyn looks to be Ronan’s show and that helps if you’re a lead performer. If your performance IS the movie. Plus, the film’s old school charm could have voters feeling nostalgic.October 30, 2015 at 12:33 pm #196746
We won’t know much until the precursors. Sadly, in this day and age- precursors account for a lot. Upsets rarely happen. I don’t see Jennifer Lawrence winning a second leading Oscar so soon. I don’t think she’s near the caliber that earned Swank two Oscars in 1999 and 2004. So to me, Brie is closer.
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FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017October 30, 2015 at 12:37 pm #196747
I don’t think so. But when you throw in names like Mulligan and Ronan, it does start to seem more crowded. Demographically younger actress have an advantage in this category but that’s mostly due to less opportunities for older actresses like Danner or Rampling or Tomlin, but they do like to go for the veteran actresses if they’re around. It’ll be interesting to see how SAG balances them.October 30, 2015 at 2:29 pm #196748
Academy members tend to be older and like to vote for veteran actresses
Which could be bad news for Lawrence/Larson and great news for Cate Blanchett.
Blanchett is a ‘veteran’ in a field including Tomlin, Rampling and Smith???
Will Tomlin and Smith split the old vote? Will Smith and Rampling split the British vote? Will Blanchett and Smith split the need a 3rd win vote?October 30, 2015 at 4:36 pm #196749
Are we talking about for a nomination or a win? If for a nomination I doubt that to be true. There seems to be a small shift in the academy. Take the best actor race from two years ago for example. DiCaprio and Bale beat out veterans like Robert Redford and Tom Hanks as well as Forest Whitaker who received a SAG nomination. I wouldn’t be surprised to see s lineup that includes Larson, Lawrence, Mulligan, and even Ronan.October 30, 2015 at 5:34 pm #196750
Split vote? Uh they aren’t in the same film so I find that highly unlikely. I doubt Blanchett is winning her 3rd this year after Streep had to wait 20 years for it.October 30, 2015 at 6:12 pm #196751
IF they were both going to be nominated for the first time then yes they could split the votes. However, Lawrence has won already and been nominated two other times so she might be one of the “it girls” but she’s been around the block. While on the other hand you could make an argument that Larson is overdue after being overlooked for Short Term 12. So in this case Larson is going to the Oscars new discovery and Lawerence will have to wait a couple more years for Oscar number 2.October 30, 2015 at 7:23 pm #196752
I really can’t see Blanchett getting a third one already. Look how long it took Streep Hepburn, Nicholson even Day-Lewis to get three. Plus Blanchett got beat by Mara at Cannes so I don’t think she will go into this award season in a really strong place.
(and as I said in another thread which wasn’t too popular with some people!!!—There is just no way I can see Lawrence winning again so soon.)
Seems to me it is Larson, Tomlin (there’s a good article on the front page saying she will probably get a big boost coming out of the Golden Globes) Rampling if the film connects or some surprise performance that catches on.
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