( +2 hidden )
January 16, 2017 at 10:38 am #1201988957
Nine seems unlikely, but hey, it got that many at BAFTA via preferential ballot despite its relatively mixed reviews (67 on Metacritic) and not having any obvious ties to Britain (American director, American leads, American setting, American novel, American studio).
I am predicting five, but I could just as easily see it get zero, given the Oscars’ cold reception of better-reviewed stylish neo-noirs in recent years (Sicario, Inherent Vice, Nightcrawler, Gone Girl, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Drive), especially compared to BAFTA.
I actually have it ranked fifth in four of my five categories (actor, supporting actor, cinematography, score) and fourth in screenplay. I moved it up there because I really like what Tom said in our pre-Globes slugfest about how people can feel smart by voting for this film; that sets it apart a bit from some of the other titles that I mentioned above.
Perhaps the film’s best chance at a nomination is Aaron Taylor-Johnson, but I could still see Michael Shannon being nominated over him, given the Globes’ bias for studs and BAFTA’s bias for Brits (and they never nominated Shannon before anyway). That might indicate that there will be too much vote-splitting for either of them.
I could see it getting a production design nomination in a Her kind of way; it does not have huge sets, but puts an interesting spin on everyday places. Some people are predicting it for picture, director or editing. Finally, although it is not in the predictions center for it, I think that Nocturnal Animals is a contender for sound editing, given its cars and guns. The film has done decently at the guilds, but it is hard to tell if that is just because they have so many categories and slots. Maybe it gets zero nominations, but will in sixth to tenth place for the ten categories that I have mentioned. That is essentially what happened to Gone Girl, which was nominated by eight guilds and ultimately got just one Oscar nomination. Nightcrawler was nominated by six and got one Oscar nomination. Nocturnal Animals has been nominated by six so far, with MPSE still to announce.January 16, 2017 at 10:43 am #1201988960
I think three is realistic. Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and a tech nod seems likely. It’s a dark film that got more harsh and divided reception than the acclaimed Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, Drive, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and Sicario. It’s way more violent and vulgar as well as it is off-putting. I think it’s too divisive to get into Best Picture and Director. It’s not a #1 type of film. It can make some feel smart about it, but not in the way that something like The Tree of Life did, where that was more spiritual and full of beautiful, pleasant imagery.January 16, 2017 at 10:55 am #1201988969
Ideally a complete shutout is preferred. But like the other unpleasant possibility of Hacksaw Ridge we have deal with these two tainting this year’s lineup.January 16, 2017 at 10:59 am #1201988977
What’s with the title of the thread?. Will it get NINE or ZERO? Why not FOUR or ZERO? or SEVEN or ZERO? Wouldn’t it be better as “How many nominations will Nocturnal Animals get?”.
Having loved the film, seen it twice already, I think it’s entirely possible that it gets zero. It’s not really a true contender anywhere. We’re all relying way too much on a Globe win that came out of nowhere (I predicted something like this, but went with Patel for the same reasons), some BAFTA nods that have more logic there than at the Oscars and a WGA nod that came because of inelegible screenplays and difference in categories from the Academy.
So there hasn’t really been a huge realistic reason for it to land Oscar nominations over films and people that have been much better received throughout the season.
If by any chance the film clicks with the Academy, for whatever reasons we all want to mention, then Supporting Actor (can’t stop thinking it will be Shannon instead), Screenplay, Editing, Score and Cinematography make sense. But I can’t imagine all of them, and I can’t imagine any other categories (certainly not Best Actor) and much less it being a BP nominee over the contenders we all know. This is why I find the title of the thread weird, there’s no way it could possibly land NINE nominations.
I will say though, if it does get a bunch of nominations, then count me in as a very happy viewer on the 24th.January 16, 2017 at 11:21 am #1201988988
I’m predicting it for a total ot ZERO Oscar nominations. Maybe I’m wrong about it. I’ve been wrong so many times but I just don’t see it as a film the Academy would care to nominate.January 16, 2017 at 11:27 am #1201988995
Should have included a poll. I went with this title partly because of the absurdity, but also because this is not a case of will-Moonlight-get-six-or-eight? Any (extreme) outcome on the spectrum seems feasible for Nocturnal Animals, hence the creation of this thread.January 16, 2017 at 11:47 am #1201989014
I just don’t think the Academy will take a liking to this film. If they couldn’t go for Gone Girl, Drive and Nightcrawler (far superior films than this one), they won’t go for Nocturnal Animals. Heck even PGA didn’t nominate it and PGA actually nominated both Gone Girl and Nightcrawler (in the same year in fact).
Having said that, I am predicting it in two categories this year – Adapted Screenplay (I have it in third) and Supporting Actor for Taylor-Johnson (I have him in 5th).
I think it’s a safe bet for Screenplay (Even Nightcrawler got a nod there). Apart from the thing Tom said that you’ve already mentioned, I also feel like the Academy’s writing branch would reciprocate to this adaptation (even if the other branches don’t).
My second prediction for Aaron Taylor Johnson is solely based on his Golden Globe win AND Bafta nomination. I just don’t think of him as being a fluke if he could win the GG over Patel, Bridges and Ali. I understand why they didn’t go for Ali (as I mentioned in the supporting actor thread), but to go for Johnson OVER Patel (Someone you’d think the HFPA would be willing to opt for) and Bridges has to mean something. Then there is the stat that the last person to win here and not be nominated at Oscars was in the 1970’s.
So yeah, I predict Nocturnal Animals to get two nominations.January 16, 2017 at 11:53 am #1201989020
It will get cinematography and maybe production design. ATJ is a likely #5, but I still can’t see him becoming an Oscar nominee.January 16, 2017 at 12:03 pm #1201989031
Gone Girl (which relies almost solely on Pike and Coon’s performances) and Inherent Vice aren’t better films than Nocturnal Animals, and I’m sure that will be reflected in the nominations Nocturnal Animals gets. I don’t know why people think it’s worse than half the other films in contention.January 16, 2017 at 1:03 pm #1201989090
People are letting their bias confuse them. It has nothing about “looking smart” and more about the increase in new international voters in the Academy. The same international folks in GG and BAFTA that happened to like Nocturnal Animals. Nightcrawler, Gone Girl, or whatever thing you are trying to compare it to never won a GG in the middle of Oscar voting.January 16, 2017 at 2:07 pm #1201989151
It will be somewhere in that range.January 16, 2017 at 2:15 pm #1201989154
Predicting three (ATJ, Screenplay, Score). Can’t see more than five.January 16, 2017 at 2:21 pm #1201989157
I think Supporting Actor is going to be the place where anyone who liked the film even a little will put in their votes for Taylor Johnson. There’s not really that many contenders that are fighting for that spot so it shouldn’t be too hard for him to get in there. As someone who didn’t care for the film especially, I don’t particularly want it to get anything else, but will acknowledge that Screenplay is likely, especially since Silence dropped like a stone.
Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/January 16, 2017 at 3:08 pm #1201989194
I don’t think it will get 9 Oscar nominations but I see this one getting 5 nods.
BEST PICTURE – People love or hate this movie, but those who love it, they love it really bad. Plus, no matter what, it’s a movie that sticks into your head
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON – It’s a showy performance and AMPAS loves characters that need some psychiatric help. ATJ has never been better, but Oscar voters don’t always go for sexy young hunks in this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: MICHAEL SHANNON – He’s amazing in this one and it could be a way to apologize him for his 99 Homes shocking snub… Plus, he is considered one of the best actors working today and AMPAS pay attention to its contenders reputation.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Turning such a tricky narrative in something so beautifully complex and watchable at the movie deserves some credit. Ford did a great job by adapting the novel and with Golden Globe + BAFTA + Critics’ Choice + WGA award nominations in this category, Nocturnal Animals is a clear serious contender.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – It’s beautiful!
alternates: Best Director (effective narrative + visual splendor); Best Cinematography (it’s a dark and beautifully filmed movie with some nice shots with shaddows the AMPAS tends to love)January 16, 2017 at 3:10 pm #1201989196
I have it in two categories at the moment, Score and Supporting Actor – for Shannon, not Taylor-Johnson. I’m reminded of when Globe/SAG-nominee John Turturro got replaced at the Oscars by co-star Paul Scofield in Quiz Show, or when Michael Lerner in Barton Fink got in over his Globe-nominated co-star John Goodman. Admittedly this kind of swapping hasn’t happened in a while unless you count DiCaprio and Wahlberg in The Departed, but that was at least partly due to DiCaprio’s confusing supporting campaign. But Michael Shannon seems more the type of actor the Academy would go for, while Aaron Taylor-Johnson, as suggested by others, might have had unique advantages specific to HFPA and BAFTA that don’t reflect the bigger picture.
I think Nocturnal Animals could miss Adapted Screenplay. Like other adaptations it was helped at WGA both by Lion being ineligible and by Moonlight and Loving being considered Original there. Also I don’t think I’m the only one to find some of the dialogue in the “real” scenes a little stilted. (The novel-within-the-film felt more authentic, strangely enough.) This may or may not count against it, but remember this is Tom Ford, not a veteran screenwriter. I even think Silence could be nominated over it.
Cinematography is a real possibility, although I’m keeping with the ASC five for now. Production Design or Editing seems like a stretch, despite the BAFTA noms.