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February 23, 2016 at 4:43 pm #218165
Last year’s show was least watched since 2009 (only 37M viewers), but these oscars have so many storylines, that i think they might crush current record which is from 1998 (Titanic sweep), 55M viewers. Why?
– Of course, Leo win is must-see TV and everyone knows he is gonna win
– blockubsters in BP lineup plus Star Wars
– Stallone win, he has huge fan base too
– Star Studded acting lineups (Jlaw, Hardy, Fass, Damon, Blanchett, Winslet, Bale, Ruffalo,)
– Chris Rock and anticipation of his #OscarsSoWhite rantFebruary 23, 2016 at 4:50 pm #218167
NoFebruary 23, 2016 at 4:52 pm #218169
I mean DiCaprio win is gonna add like at least 5M? Maybe 10?February 23, 2016 at 4:53 pm #218168
Second-highest or highest for sure.
Leo’s star power cannot be discounted, and Chris Rock hosting will draw people who want AMPAS to be skewered.February 23, 2016 at 5:01 pm #218170
I guess about 44-46 million viewers. In 2013, when Leo was a possible winner, Gravity was a possible first sci-fi movie to win BP and all the racial issues with 12YAS in the mix, it got 43.5. This year is kind of similar, so I don’t think is going to be considerably up of that figure.
Maybe if Star Wars was in the BP lineup the ratings would have crushed the 50 million mark, but it isn’t the case.February 23, 2016 at 5:05 pm #218171
No one really thought Leo was going to win, though. Sure, a lot of us wanted it to happen, but McConaissance dominated the conversation.
I’ll predict 50-60M (a somewhat wide range, I know).February 23, 2016 at 5:06 pm #218172
The majority of viewers don’t even have an idea the chances of the nominees to win, they just know they’re nominated and tune in to see if the nominee they’re rooting for actually wins or not…February 23, 2016 at 5:15 pm #218174
“The majority of viewers don’t even have an idea the chances of the
nominees to win, they just know they’re nominated and tune in to see if
the nominee they’re rooting for actually wins or not… “
Thats trueFebruary 23, 2016 at 5:20 pm #218176
The Star Wars “snub” is going to hurt it.February 23, 2016 at 5:21 pm #218177
The majority of viewers don’t even have an idea the chances of the nominees to win, they just know they’re nominated and tune in to see if the nominee they’re rooting for actually wins or not…
I think you’re underestimating the traction that this “Leo is going to win an Oscar” story has been getting.February 23, 2016 at 5:46 pm #218178
I don’t, that’s why I think its going to be up about 7-9 more million viewers than last year, but that’s the limit. There have been only 2 occasions when ratings were above 50 million viewers; 1982 and 1997, the years of E.T. and Titanic, respectively. Both massive box office phenomenons. Both congregating legions of fans (or families, whatsoever) who were ferociously rooting for those movies to win. The Revenant is not E.T. nor Titanic. Star Wars TFA is, and if that movie had been nommed in BP ratings would certainly have gone beyond 50m. But it’s not the case.February 23, 2016 at 6:43 pm #218179
Yes. Because of the controversies. ABC are in debt to Jada Pinkett-Smith. They should make her host to one of their stupid morning shows.February 23, 2016 at 7:05 pm #218180
Probably not. I actually doubt the ratings will be much higher than they were last year. Unless their was a giant, blockbuster, galvanizing film (a la Star Wars: TFA) in contention, I doubt most people are familiar with or care about most of the pictures nominated this year.
Do we really think the majority of casual movie fans or people have any idea what the hell Brooklyn, The Big Short, Room, Spotlight, or even The Revenant are? I highly doubt so.
And yes, Leonardo Dicarprio is a giant A-List movie star. But I doubt most casual movie fans are sitting around with baited breath waiting for him to FINALLY win an Oscar. Heck I doubt most people remember that he was nominated two years ago let alone how many total nominations he has. Not to mention if/when he wins, it will not be until nearly the end of the telecast, so I doubt most people are going to sit through nearly a three hour telecast just to see him win his oscar.
And the same thing is true with Stallone winning, only in reverse. Supporting Actor is usually one of the first awards of the night, so any fans of Stallones can watch the first part of the show and tune out afterwards.
And when it comes to #Oscarssowhite, that is most likely a huge deal to the media, but little more than that. As others have said concerning this, there are far bigger issues going on in the world than whether a couple of pampered, over-payed, rich celebrities were nominated for some ultimately trivial awards. I am sure the majority of people have more important things to worry about than that. And frankly I would not doubt it if many people are simply plain sick and tired of hearing about it.
And while Chris Rock is a big star, he is not Ellen Degeneres. He does not have nearly the universal appeal and likeability that she does. Heck, does anyone (besides evangelical, religous right-wing nutbags who hate anything LGBT related) not like Ellen? Realistically we can not say the same thing about Chris Rock. He can often be controversial and unlikeable at tiems. Not to mention the majority of his films and work have stunk over the past ten or so years, and he is mostly living off past glory at this point. If someone as ubiguitous, favorable, and talented as Neil Patrick-Harris could not lift up the Oscars last year, I would be surprised if Chris Rock can.
And finally, in this day of DVR’s it’s not nearly as important to watch big events live as it used to be. I doubt most people are dying to watch a bloated and boring telecast when they can simply watch it later and fast forward through most of the boring parts at a later time.
I am an awards junkie and will watch the majority of awards shows, but I doubt most casual movie/tv fans anticipate or follow the awards as closely as most of us here do. If the ratings are great than that would be nice, but I am not anticipating anything blockbuster this Sunday.