February 17, 2016 at 3:34 pm #217266
Weirdly, Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects went hand-in-hand for five years in a row (“Avatar,” “Inception,” “Hugo,” “Life of Pi,” Gravity”) until last year snapped that streak. But with “The Revenant” seeming stronger and stronger, I actually moved it to first place in my Visual Effects predictions too.
The Visual Effects Oscar doesn’t usually seem to be about which film has the best effects. It tends to be Movie We Like The Most That Has Effects In It. That’s why films like “Forrest Gump,” “Gladiator” and “Hugo” win — because they’re Best Picture nominees that have some effects in them.
This year uncharacteristically has three Best Picture nominees up for Visual Effects (also “The Martian” and “Mad Max”), but “The Revenant” is almost definitely the one the academy likes the most as a whole. Plus that weird Cinematography connection; “Revenant” is a shoo-in for that award.
Is anyone else predicting “The Revenant” for Visual Effects?February 17, 2016 at 3:43 pm #217268
It’s a clever pick, but ‘The Revenant’ doesn’t quite fit into the ‘Life of Pi’/’Avatar’/’Gravity’ group because its effects are localized (mostly) to a few scenes.
It would be like if ‘The Impossible’ won visual effects for the tsunami scene. When you think of ‘The Revenant’, you think of the bear and…?
Here is an important stat:
BAFTA and the Academy have agreed on nine of the last ten winners for visual effects (BAFTA went for ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows – Part 2’ over ‘Hugo’). Tom’s theory about voters thinking of the *most* of whatever they’re judging holds true here. ‘Star Wars’ undoubtedly has the most visual effects, which is why it won BAFTA, and is probably on the path to an Oscar.February 17, 2016 at 3:47 pm #217269
“Movie We Like The Most That Has Effects In It” is also part of why I predicted Interstellar last year over Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which won the Visual Effects Society and Critics’ Choice Awards. Having said that, The Revenant is “definitely” in third place for this category. Also, I would not have predicted Birdman for Best Visual Effects last year if it had been nominated, even though it won the same Supporting guild award as The Revenant and Hugo.February 17, 2016 at 3:53 pm #217270
This is a battle between Mad Max and Star Wars. Moreover, it has to be a battle among those two. If Revenant wins here just because of a bear it would be embarrassing. As said before, it would be like The Impossible or Hereafter winning just because of the tsunami scenes.February 17, 2016 at 3:54 pm #217271
Im pretty sure Force Awakens will win hereFebruary 17, 2016 at 4:07 pm #217272
Tom’s theory about voters thinking of the *most* of whatever they’re judging holds true here. ‘Star Wars’ undoubtedly has the most visual effects, which is why it won BAFTA, and is probably on the path to an Oscar.
What gets me is whether they are voting for “most” or “most memorable”. Because there were a lot of spaceships and stars, but I have seen those before. The storm sequence or the spiked cars constantly in motion and exploding on orange sand against a blue sky? That seemed fresh.February 17, 2016 at 4:14 pm #217273
The reason they have aligned is because in the age of movies being filmed with CGI, both “Visual Effects” and Cimenatography” now just mean “Best looking movie” according to the academy. This year there isn’t a movie like that. Mad Max and The Revenant were mostly filmed the old-fashioned way, so the awards may be split.February 17, 2016 at 4:20 pm #217275
No.it didn’t win VES or BAFTA. Star Wars did.February 17, 2016 at 4:21 pm #217274
My hunch is if “The Revenant” is winning Visual Effects, it’s going for the sweep, with victories in Costume Design and Film Editing to boot. Realistically, though, I think it’s behind both “Star Wars” and “Mad Max.”February 17, 2016 at 7:47 pm #217276
The reason they have aligned is because in the age of movies being filmed with CGI, both “Visual Effects” and Cimenatography” now just mean “Best looking movie” according to the academy. This year there isn’t a movie like that. Mad Max and The Revenant were mostly filmed the old-fashioned way, so the awards may be split.
Yeah, this is a perfect summary.
How do we fix this? We have two categories for writing because AMPAS thinks that comparing an original work and an adapted work is not quite fair. Yet, is it fair to compare extensive green-screen (‘Life of Pi’) to films which don’t use many special effects (‘Anna Karenina’)? Why don’t we split cinematography into “effects-driven” (‘Gravity’, ‘Avatar’) and “traditional” (‘The Hateful Eight’, ‘Carol’)? Surely that is more justified than having two sound categories which have ~80% overlap in nominees.