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Winning trend since BP expansion

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  • Award Chaos
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    #1202233740

    Since the Academy decided to increase up to 10 film in the Best Picture category, I noticed that the film winning for Best Picture is no longer the biggest winner of the night.

    Only the first year of the new expanded race, 2009, saw the old trend working, when The Hurt Locker won 6 Oscars and was the film with the most wins, including Best Picture.
    After that, no Best Picture winner has swept the ceremony, nor has been the night’s bigger winner.

    2010
    The King’s Speech won four Oscars, just as Inception

    2011
    The Artists won five Oscars, but so did Hugo

    2012
    Argo won three Oscars, but Life of Pi won four

    2013
    12 Years a Slave won three, while Gravity took seven

    2014
    Birdman won four, as well as Grand Budapest Hotel

    2015
    Spotlight won just two, Fury Road won three times that (six Oscars)

    2016
    Moonlight got three, La La Land got six.

    If the trend continues, then it means that Dunkirk could be the biggest winner thanks to technical achievements, but it won’t take home Best Picture. Can that open the way for Call Me By Your Name, or The Darkest Hour? Right now seems also that Dunkirk and The Shape of Water will battle it out in some categories, maybe splitting the vote in the end. Can Blade Runner 2049 take some of Dunkirk’s Oscars?

    The key is to look now at the movie ranked in second or third in number of nominations, being the leader is no longer a guarantee for a win in BP, and certainly not be the biggest winner before BP is announced. Tell that to La La Land, Fury Road and Gravity.

    What dom you all think?

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202233864

    Looking back at the 2000s, the Best Picture winner was also the most awarded film or tied as such at every ceremony bar one, so I definitely think that you’re right about the effect of the expanded BP field.

    I think that the key now is to look at the films expected to win in the screenplay categories. Since the Best Picture field was expanded, only one winner (The Artist) did not win a screenplay award. So… either Call Me By Your Name or The Shape of Water will win next year?

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    Hoster1
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    #1202233868

    So… either Call Me By Your Name or The Shape of Water will win next year?

    I think that Three Billboards has a better chance of winning Original Screenplay.

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    SN
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    #1202233875

    So… either Call Me By Your Name or The Shape of Water will win next year?

    I think that Three Billboards has a better chance to win Original Screenplay.

    I think it’s almost a lock.

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    eclipseart98
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    #1202233882

    Darkest Hour received generally positive reviews so it will not win BP. The real contenders/frontrunners this year are Dunkirk, Shape of Water, and CMBYN. Why Dunkirk won’t win Best Picture? The Academy loves war films, it’s a technical achievement, and it’s directed by an “overdue” director (Del Toro is also “overdue”). Also, a critically acclaimed film that boast technical showcase often deemed to be an Oscar frontrunner. Case in point, La La Land, Mad Max Fury Road, Birdman and Gravity.

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    Andrew D
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    #1202234124

    I think this is interesting … I agree Dunkirk could win the most ( sounds, Editing , Score and could maybe be Director) Then i think CMBYN, 3 billboards , Lady Bird and Shape of water all seem to be the next biggest threats … I think Billboards wins screenplay , lady bird wins supporting actress, CMBYN wins supporting actor and adapted. I think Shape of water could win Actress, Director and would be my prediction for picture… I just think that if Dunkirk is out due to winning the most the most probable second and third place ones are shape of water and cmbyn and i dont think a movie centered around a gay romance will win two years in a row… i would love it to … but i dont think we are their yet.

    https://www.etsy.com/shop/AndrewsArt

    Check out my Store.

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    Evergreen
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    #1202234170

    The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri? For those who have seen both of these films already which one is winning Best Picture?

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    seberko
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    #1202234177

    It seems to be that Screenplay and Editing noms are the biggest keys. Also, outside of Oscar noms, a SAG ensemble nom has been key for every Best Picture race since the creation of the best ensemble category except for the very first year, when Braveheart won picture without a SAG ensemble nom.

    I’m not really sure if CMBYN or Three Billboards will get in for Editing. I haven’t seen either film, but The Shape of Water should gets noms in for all three of the awards I mentioned. That why I think it has the best chance right now. Also, if The Post is as good as the cast and director make it seem to be, that will also get those key nominations

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202234211

    Dunkirk‘s Best Picture problem is it’s exceedingly unlikely to garner any acting nominations. And it ain’t a juggernaut on the level of Return of the King.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1992) – A Few Good Men

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    thesmark88
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    #1202234232

    The recent trend has been Best Picture winners getting the Oscar for Screenplay but not a lot else-over the last few years, Screenplay Oscars have been a better indicator than Director:

    2013: Argo wins BP, its other wins being for Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. Life of Pi (Ang Lee) wins Best Director.

    2014: 12 Years a Slave wins BP, its other wins being for Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o). Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) wins Best Director.

    2015: Birdman wins BP, its other wins being for Director (Alejandro Inarritu), Original Screenplay and Cinematography

    2016: Spotlight wins BP, its only other win being Original Screenplay. The Revenant (Alejandro Inarritu) wins Best Director.

    2017: Moonlight wins BP, its other wins being Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali). La La Land (Damien Chazelle) wins for Best Director.

    Since 2006, only one movie has won Best Picture without having also won for Screenplay (The Artist). In the 11 years before that (1995-2005), only four movies actually won both (Return of the King, A Beautiful Mind, American Beauty and Shakespeare in Love)

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    Award Chaos
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    #1202234262

    The recent trend has been Best Picture winners getting the Oscar for Screenplay but not a lot else-over the last few years, Screenplay Oscars have been a better indicator than Director:

    2013: Argo wins BP, its other wins being for Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. Life of Pi (Ang Lee) wins Best Director.

    2014: 12 Years a Slave wins BP, its other wins being for Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o). Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) wins Best Director.

    2015: Birdman wins BP, its other wins being for Director (Alejandro Inarritu), Original Screenplay and Cinematography

    2016: Spotlight wins BP, its only other win being Original Screenplay. The Revenant (Alejandro Inarritu) wins Best Director.

    2017: Moonlight wins BP, its other wins being Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali). La La Land (Damien Chazelle) wins for Best Director.

    Since 2006, only one movie has won Best Picture without having also won for Screenplay (The Artist). In the 11 years before that (1995-2005), only four movies actually won both (Return of the King, A Beautiful Mind, American Beauty and Shakespeare in Love)

    Crash won Original Screenplay, so the trend is almost half.
    But yes, I do think that this two trends (not being the biggest winner and winning a screenplay award) are the best indicators that can propel a film to win Best Picture. And a picture-director split is almost probable. So Nolan for Director, Shape of Water for Original Screenplay, Call Me By Your Name for Adapted, and Best Picture to… who knows!!!

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    Baby Clyde
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    #1202234299

    The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri? For those who have seen both of these films already which one is winning Best Picture?

    Billboard.

    TSOW will have it’s fans but Three Billboards is a proper crowd pleaser with far less downside. It’s funny and intelligent with fantastic performances. Whilst not traditional Academy fare outside of Acting and Screenplay with this years lack of consensus it feels like something everyone will be able to agree on.

    I can easily see it going all the way.

    It’s essentially a kids film (And very much plays like one at times) but has very adult elements which I found extremely jarring. It’s extremely charming and looks great. I’d assume it will get lots of nominations many more than Three Billboards but very much reminds me of Hugo in that it’s wins will be in the tech categories and it will ultimately have little chance of taking the big prize.

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    eclipseart98
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    #1202234342

    Another trend is the film that wins Best Director also happens to win Best Cinematography. For example, Gravity, Life of Pi, Birdman, The Revenant, and La La Land. So it’s sad that Roger Deakins might not get his due, yet.

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    eclipseart98
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    #1202234353

    The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri? For those who have seen both of these films already which one is winning Best Picture?

    Billboard. TSOW will have it’s fans but Three Billboards is a proper crowd pleaser with far less downside. It’s funny and intelligent with fantastic performances. Whilst not traditional Academy fare outside of Acting and Screenplay with this years lack of consensus it feels like something everyone will be able to agree on. I can easily see it going all the way. It’s essentially a kids film (And very much plays like one at times) but has very adult elements which I found extremely jarring. It’s extremely charming and looks great. I’d assume it will get lots of nominations many more than Three Billboards but very much reminds me of Hugo in that it’s wins will be in the tech categories and it will ultimately have little chance of taking the big prize.

    The Shape of Water is R-rated so it’s unlikely to be seen by kids. Also, the film’s larger competition to tech categories is Dunkirk in which it has bigger scope compared to the former. So IMO Dunkirk will win Best Director and The Shape of Water might beat Three Billboards for Screenplay. Mcdonaugh has already won an Oscar so that’s OK if he’ll lose to Del Toro who is overdue.

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    Award Chaos
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    #1202234436

    Another trend is the film that wins Best Director also happens to win Best Cinematography. For example, Gravity, Life of Pi, Birdman, The Revenant, and La La Land. So it’s sad that Roger Deakins might not get his due, yet.

    There was a trend that lasted just a few years when Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects went to the same films: Avatar, Inception, Hugo, Life of Pi and Gravity. But that was all. Sadly, Fury Road, one of the most visually engaging films won neither of those categories.

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