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Winning trend since BP expansion

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  • AnDres Gtz
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    #1202235270

    So… if Shape of Water starts winning the screenplay awards is over, that’s the new BP.

    That is assuming The Post, Wonder Wheel or Phantom Thread won’t play very well.

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    Rinolo Twenty-two
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    #1202235290

    Don’t forget the trend with SAG, La La Land didn’t get the nomination for Best Cast last year. Three Billboards will totally be nominated there, maybe The Shape of Water as well. Dunkirk won’t be nominated at all.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #1202235293

    People need to put dreams of Darkest Hour winning to bed. Three Billboards is frontrunner in OS. Darkest will is hovering near bottom of BP list. Zero passion for it.

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    Ard-Greimne
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    #1202235294

    It just means politically charged films are winning BP

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    AviChristiaans
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    #1202235305

    The 4 major and strongest stats in terms of the Best Picture Oscar that have yet to be broken in over 20 years are:

    – In over 28 years, no film has won Best Picture without a DGA (Directors Guild Award) nomination. The last film to win without one was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989.

    – In over 28 years, no film has won Best Picture without a PGA (Producers Guild Award) nomination.

    – In over 21 years, no film has won Best Picture without an Ensemble Cast nomination by the Screen Actors Guild. The last one being Braveheart.

    – No film has won Best Picture without a screenwriting nomination since “Titanic’’ in 1998.

    So…..SAG, DGA, PGA and Screenplay nominations = Best Picture.

    Anything less and you are DONE.
    La La Land, Gravity, The Revenant etc…

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    eclipseart98
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    #1202235496

    Don’t forget the trend with SAG, La La Land didn’t get the nomination for Best Cast last year. Three Billboards will totally be nominated there, maybe The Shape of Water as well. Dunkirk won’t be nominated at all.

    Even though Dunkirk has mostly unknown cast, they each had great performances so they’re probably get nominated for it a-la Moonlight, but not win. Dunkirk will win Stunt Ensemble though. The film also might win PGA in which it is also a strong indicator for Best Picture win.

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    eclipseart98
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    #1202235501

    Another (great) trend is the critic’s film awards in different states. The more you win in those awards, the better your chances of winning an Oscar.

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    Andrew D
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    #1202235531

    goodness i hope wonder wheel doesnt make any headway in OS i cant stand Woddy winning another Oscar

    https://www.etsy.com/shop/AndrewsArt

    Check out my Store.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202235554

    Unless Wonder Wheel is somehow Annie Hall-level, no way Allen actually wins another Oscar this year. Even a nomination is looking exceedingly unlikely.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1992) – A Few Good Men

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    M H
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    #1202235583

    <p> <br></p>

    Dunkirk‘s Best Picture problem is it’s exceedingly unlikely to garner any acting nominations. And it ain’t a juggernaut on the level of Return of the King.

    I wouldn’t be so sure that Dunkirk’s appeal doesn’t pull Rylance to a nomination.

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    Andrew D
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    #1202235705

    Unless Wonder Wheel is somehow Annie Hall-level, no way Allen actually wins another Oscar this year. Even a nomination is looking exceedingly unlikely.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1992) – A Few Good Men

    Yea i hope so , I cant stand that he continues to let himself be eligible for writing awards . he doesn’t care about them and should recuse himself.

    https://www.etsy.com/shop/AndrewsArt

    Check out my Store.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202235810

    I cant stand that [Woody Allen] continues to let himself be eligible for writing awards .

    Does he have a choice in the matter?

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    Award Chaos
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    #1202241783

    I cant stand that [Woody Allen] continues to let himself be eligible for writing awards .

    Does he have a choice in the matter?

    Either him or the studio have to submit the movie for consideration. He may say no thanks, but if the studio wants to push the movie, his wishes don’t matter. I think that’s how it works.

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    Honey
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    #1202241788

    No BP winner since the expansion had a best actress in a lead role nomination, hell only Chicago and Million Dollar Baby were the only BP winners this century to get a Best Actress in a leading role nod.

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    sofan
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    #1202241808

    No BP winner since the expansion had a best actress in a lead role nomination, hell only Chicago and Million Dollar Baby were the only BP winners this century to get a Best Actress in a leading role nod.

    So we can already count The Post out?

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