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October 11, 2017 at 9:08 pm #1202235270
So… if Shape of Water starts winning the screenplay awards is over, that’s the new BP.
That is assuming The Post, Wonder Wheel or Phantom Thread won’t play very well.October 11, 2017 at 9:35 pm #1202235290
Don’t forget the trend with SAG, La La Land didn’t get the nomination for Best Cast last year. Three Billboards will totally be nominated there, maybe The Shape of Water as well. Dunkirk won’t be nominated at all.October 11, 2017 at 9:38 pm #1202235293
People need to put dreams of Darkest Hour winning to bed. Three Billboards is frontrunner in OS. Darkest will is hovering near bottom of BP list. Zero passion for it.October 11, 2017 at 9:39 pm #1202235294
It just means politically charged films are winning BPOctober 11, 2017 at 10:20 pm #1202235305
The 4 major and strongest stats in terms of the Best Picture Oscar that have yet to be broken in over 20 years are:
– In over 28 years, no film has won Best Picture without a DGA (Directors Guild Award) nomination. The last film to win without one was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989.
– In over 28 years, no film has won Best Picture without a PGA (Producers Guild Award) nomination.
– In over 21 years, no film has won Best Picture without an Ensemble Cast nomination by the Screen Actors Guild. The last one being Braveheart.
– No film has won Best Picture without a screenwriting nomination since “Titanic’’ in 1998.
So…..SAG, DGA, PGA and Screenplay nominations = Best Picture.
Anything less and you are DONE.
La La Land, Gravity, The Revenant etc…October 12, 2017 at 6:07 am #1202235496
Don’t forget the trend with SAG, La La Land didn’t get the nomination for Best Cast last year. Three Billboards will totally be nominated there, maybe The Shape of Water as well. Dunkirk won’t be nominated at all.
Even though Dunkirk has mostly unknown cast, they each had great performances so they’re probably get nominated for it a-la Moonlight, but not win. Dunkirk will win Stunt Ensemble though. The film also might win PGA in which it is also a strong indicator for Best Picture win.October 12, 2017 at 6:14 am #1202235501
Another (great) trend is the critic’s film awards in different states. The more you win in those awards, the better your chances of winning an Oscar.October 12, 2017 at 7:06 am #1202235531
goodness i hope wonder wheel doesnt make any headway in OS i cant stand Woddy winning another Oscar
Check out my Store.October 12, 2017 at 8:36 am #1202235583
Dunkirk‘s Best Picture problem is it’s exceedingly unlikely to garner any acting nominations. And it ain’t a juggernaut on the level of Return of the King.
I wouldn’t be so sure that Dunkirk’s appeal doesn’t pull Rylance to a nomination.October 12, 2017 at 10:48 am #1202235705
Unless Wonder Wheel is somehow Annie Hall-level, no way Allen actually wins another Oscar this year. Even a nomination is looking exceedingly unlikely.
OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1992) – A Few Good Men
Yea i hope so , I cant stand that he continues to let himself be eligible for writing awards . he doesn’t care about them and should recuse himself.
Check out my Store.October 18, 2017 at 12:46 pm #1202241783
I cant stand that [Woody Allen] continues to let himself be eligible for writing awards .
Does he have a choice in the matter?
Either him or the studio have to submit the movie for consideration. He may say no thanks, but if the studio wants to push the movie, his wishes don’t matter. I think that’s how it works.October 18, 2017 at 12:53 pm #1202241788
No BP winner since the expansion had a best actress in a lead role nomination, hell only Chicago and Million Dollar Baby were the only BP winners this century to get a Best Actress in a leading role nod.