December 16, 2015 at 9:37 am #202970
Many people thought with its amazing reviews and box office, Inside Out would be a BP nominee this year even with the 5% rule.
But now it looks like most (though not all) have abandoned that prediction. Perhaps because of the awards groups to announce so far, there hasn’t been huge waves of support for it; there’s been support, but it seems their enthusiasm for pushing it is along the lines of “well, here’s a screenplay nom, here’s an animated win; that’s good.”
So if the 5% rule had been in place in 2009 & 2010, would Up and Toy Story 3 have missed too?
Some things that would make me confident: Screenplay wins, Directing noms. Like, I think Wall-E would have made it with the 5% rule.
For me, I’d say Up had a tiny chance, and TS3 more than likely no.December 16, 2015 at 9:39 am #202972
TS3 yes. Up is a bit overrated, I think. Inside Out is a much more sophisticated film than Up and deserves the nod. It should also win for Original Screenplay. It’s this year’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless mind.December 16, 2015 at 9:46 am #202973
Inside Out is getting a lot of best picture nominations by critics. Just didnt get nominated by BFCA. Still i think its getting in at Oscars. Too orignal, too good.
I have 4 noms for IO: BP, screenplay (lock), animated movie (lock), Music (should get) and sound nom is possible. Its one of the best movies in the 2015, cant ignore that.
And yes i think Toy Story 3 and Up would get in with today’s rules.December 16, 2015 at 11:03 am #202974
I touched on this in our Critics’ Choice slugfest video (plug plug plug) and I find this to be a really interesting topic. I think that Inside Out is out for a couple of reasons.
Everyone loves Pixar, but there is enough of a preconceived bias against animation that nobody ever takes it seriously as a threat to win. People do not want to throw away their votes, so it is not going to be the first title that anyone marks off (or in their top five), especially since everyone knows that it is already winning a best picture award (for animation). Back when voters marked off ten films in the guaranteed-ten years, Up and Toy Story 3 were pretty much locked for nominations. As I said, everyone loves Pixar and everyone sees Pixar, so voters can definitely find a slot for it somewhere toward the bottom of their top tens. Take a look at the Metacritic aggregate of top-ten lists. Inside Out appears fourth overall using their methodology, but the point breakdown reveals that it is tied with eight other films at seventh in terms of top-two placements. And the critics do not have a separate animated section, so that placement is already inflated.
The other thing is that the Pixar brand has suffered a lot in recent years. They spent the early 2000s building up goodwill so that when Ratatouille, WALL·E, Up and Toy Story 3 landed in four consecutive years, they were showered with love from the academy, scoring nominations in up to seven categories: picture, animation, screenplay, song, score, sound editing, sound mixing. If they could have nominated them for more, they would have. For those four years, animated films were viewed as art and for good reason I might add. Have you seen the “Married Life” sequence from Up? Since then, Pixar has faltered with two films that were so bad that they did not even get nominated for Best Animated Feature and another that was so bad that it became the first Pixar film to win or be nominated for the award without any other nominations. The defining animated film since Pixar’s golden age has been Frozen. As good as it was and I do think that it was unfairly snubbed in picture and screenplay, it did not really transcend the genre and has ultimately been viewed primarily as a commercial entity. It looks just like Pixar too, so people either assume that it is Pixar or know that it is not and now view Pixar as inferior to something that they do not even hold in high regard. The other defining animated film lately is probably Minions, which again is not helping animation as a prestige thing. That Inside Out has better reviews than some of Pixar’s golden age is almost irrelevant because it is no longer playing on the same field. The best that it can hope for right now might just to be viewed as really good for an animated film (which also makes you wonder if the reviews are inflated). That almost nobody is predicting it for the sound categories is indicative of that. It is not like Inside Out is just a bit short in terms of nominations potential compared to old Pixar; like I said, the academy would have nominated them for more if they could. It just so happens that sound is the ceiling for animation because they are not going to be nominated for costumes, acting and so on. So the gulf between Inside Out and Pixar in its heyday is understated in the nominations. I am not even sure if Inside Out would have made it under the mark-ten system in 2015. It definitely would have in 2011.
And no, I did not answer the actual question posed by the original poster.December 16, 2015 at 11:11 am #202975
I think the problem this year is Anomalisa. Even though they’re completely different films, Anomalisa is acclaimed enough to be leeching some of Inside Out’s votes from lovers of animation.December 16, 2015 at 11:52 am #202976
I don’t know. Maybe? Again, not sure what exactly is different between now and then, and like demonhog mentioned, Inside Out has a bit of an uphill battle. But if they loved Up and Toy Story 3, why not Inside Out? I mean it got the best reviews from Pixar in five years and I bet that several people in the Academy are Pixar fans and just waiting and/or wishing for a film to be as good as Ratatouille or WALL-E or Up or Toy Story 3 so they can nominate it. Plus who knows what the Academy is going to like or not.
If they can nominate Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa for an Academy Award, then I think that they can share some love for Inside Out.December 16, 2015 at 12:13 pm #202977
I think the problem this year is Anomalisa. Even though they’re completely different films, Anomalisa is acclaimed enough to be leeching some of Inside Out’s votes from lovers of animation.
My fear is that several Academy members might look at Pixar’s latest film The Good Dinosaur and say, “Wow, Pixar is definitely past its prime. Why should we give Pixar another Oscar if it can’t return and stay in its glory days?.” Then those folks will check off Anomalisa as Best Animated Feature (not saying it deserves it, but I’m rooting for Inside Out).
That being said, I think Inside Out still has the upper advantage given the demographics of Oscar voters and it is more accessible and easier to understand with the elder folks in the organization.December 16, 2015 at 12:58 pm #202978
Up and TS 3 also would’ve received some boosts from the music branches, writing branches and got noms in the sound categories. I think they had diverse enough support to hit the 5% threshold in both years.December 16, 2015 at 1:14 pm #202979
I think Up, WALL-E and Ratatouille would have made the sliding 5-10 system in their respective years. Toy Story 3, possibly not. Based on that, I’m keeping my prediction for Inside Out, or I’ll at least have it in 10th.
Thedemonhog mentioned how no one seems to be predicting it in sound categories, but that could simply be an oversight. It’s also worth mentioning that in 2007 BFCA nominated The Kite Runner and Sweeney Todd over Ratatouille. I don’t think that group snubbing Inside Out for Best Picture is that significant.December 16, 2015 at 1:16 pm #202980
In the vein of thedemonhog looking at Metacritic T2 placements for critics, for 2010 (giving 2 pts for #1 and 1 pt for #2) it was:
2010: Social Network 56
Black Swan 22
Winter’s Bone 20
Ghost Writer 14
King’s Speech 10
Blue Valentine 9
127 Hrs 9
Exit Through the Gift Shop 8
Kids Are All Right 8
14. Toy Story 7
Critics aren’t voters, but they seemed to be big champions of the film (with a 92% on MC, 99% RT) yet when it came to big passion for the film it apparently came behind 13 other films.
MC didn’t list #2s for 2009, but I have a feeling TS3 inspired more passion than Up regardless.
Plus if sound categories matter, neither Up nor TS3 got Sound Mixing noms.December 17, 2015 at 12:52 am #202981
Well, there you go then. That says to me that they would not have gotten it.December 17, 2015 at 3:30 am #202982
I don’t think either film would’ve made it in. Demonhog’s “they don’t want to throw their votes” and the fact that they were “guaranteed ten films so whatever, I’ll list Toy Story 3 and Up there because I’m 100% there will be other 9 films” makes me think it was easier for those films than it would be for them and Inside Out with the new rule.
I think what benefits Inside Out this year is that it seems that either nothing has catched on as strongly as it should have by now, or everything has lost steam, including Inside Out. It’s not only that there isn’t a favorite to win yet (and most years we would know by now in several categories) it’s just that it seems that there isn’t a consensus on what those possible BP nominees will be, so it looks like right now several films are on an equal field, and Inside Out has to be one of them. Campaigns haven’t gotten any help from precursors so far thanks to everybody dividing their awards and SAG and Globes snubbing top contenders. So I do believe that the one film of the year that absolutely everybody apparently loved with very little to criticize is still a player.December 17, 2015 at 7:09 am #202983
I’m not personally predicting it, but Inside Out can definitely still get into the BP list. It has everything it needs so far, really — it’s the third biggest money-earner of the year and one of the highest rated by everybody: 98% on Rotten Tomatoes, 94 on Metacritic, 8.4 on IMDb (#90 on the Top 250, which will be the highest of the year after people chill out about Star Wars after a few weeks). It was top 10 with NBR and is currently fourth on the criticstop10 aggregator, only behind Mad Max/Carol/Spotlight. It’s guaranteed an above the line nomination with Screenplay, and all precedent points to a Sound Editing nomination as well (we here aren’t predicting it but we’re not exactly sound editing savants), and Michael Giacchino is definitely in the Original Score race (his beautifully simple melody is still one of the most memorable themes of this year). That gives it support from the animators, writers, sound technicians, musicians, and its financial success will probably help among producers and the other at-large branches of mostly executive types. I think that would be enough for 5%.
I think both Up and Toy Story 3 had enough passion to get two wins respectively, which suggests some deep support for them. I personally think TS3 would have won Screenplay if not for The Social Network. It’s tough to say hypothetically, but I imagine they would have made it in with the current system.December 17, 2015 at 11:10 am #202984
Im gonna stick with Inside Out in BP no matter what.