Your FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

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  • Jason Travis
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    #1201991979

    Every year we start a thread with people posting their final predictions for the nominations and winners. This is a chance for you not only to provide a list, but also a detailed commentary. I always enjoy reading other people’s insights. Good luck this year.

    FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
    Saturday, January 21, 2017

    PICTURE
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    Hidden Figures
    La La Land
    Lion
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight

    If 9 then – Nocturnal Animals
    If 10 then – Fences

    And so begins the start of the 2016 Oscar countdown. This year is not as fun as last year, where I had seen more of the nominated movies then ever before. And where I was rooting for so many people to take home statues I couldn’t count anymore. This year still provides some fine content, still stronger then lackluster years like 2014 (Birdman) and 2011 (The Artist).

    I still feel we will get eight nominees like the last few years have shown us. I am still a bit skeptical about whether Hidden Figures is going to gnar enough support for a Best Picture nomination. I think it’s box-office helps, but that really didn’t kick off until after ballots were due. I think Denzel Washington’s Fences isn’t getting the treatment it deserves besides a name check for overdue Viola Davis. It’s so much more then that. But sadly, it could find itself in the same territory that another Play to Film found itself- August: Osage County. That film also reeked of pre-November buzz to soar in many categories, including Best Picture. Then it found itself in only two spots Oscar morning- leading and supporting for Streep and Roberts. The same could be the fate for August Wilson’s masterful play here. I also think Nocturnal Animals is the beast under the radar that will surprise come Tuesday. It will, I think, either soar with tons of nods or getting totally shafted.

    All of this doesn’t really matter since it’s between La La Land and Moonlight for the big prize. It’s obvious that the former will lead the pack – some even betting it will tie All About Eve and Titanic with 14 nominations. It’s certainly a strong possibility. Since it isn’t a SAG nominee in Ensemble, Moonlight wins and then the headlines will deem this a serious race. I would say it boils down to what PGA says, but last year they went with The Big Short and we all know that didn’t win at the Oscars. So sometimes rules are meant to be stretched. I am betting that in the best actress race which I’ll get to later. We’re off to the races!

    DIRECTOR
    Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
    Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
    Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
    Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

    Predicting the best directing Oscar is tricky because these are a very elite group of voters. A small portion of the entire academy. Therefore, expect a surprise or even someone who hasn’t come up in the precursor conversation (eg Martin Scorsese, Silence or Jeff Nichols, Loving). I really want to say Mel Gibson or Denzel Washington could find themselves positioned here. But the latter doesn’t do showy direction and will already be nodded in the best actor race (so I foresee). The former is coming back from a nasty hiatus and all those crazy voicemails (though with Trump’s Tweets, Mel’s little outburst doesn’t seem so bad now). Since Gibson is already an Oscar winner for Braveheart in this category, maybe voters will welcome him back since he’s done this before. His movie is going to be a contender for some top honors. Too crowded?

    Davis’s DGA nod was a nice surprise, but DGA still rarely matches with the Academy lineup. The other four seemed ready to go. So I’m picking BAFTA and Globe nominee Tom Ford, if only for the British appeal and dark territory he covers in the film.

    ACTOR
    Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
    Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
    Ryan Gosling, La La Land
    Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
    Denzel Washington, Fences

    I see no one stopping these five except maybe Tom Hanks in Sully, but that seems dead in the water. If there was a sure thing that gets snubbed here, my money would be on Gosling. But because the film is going to be so loved he gets swept in. And Washington better not be overlooked for such a fine tuned performance. A strong list of men.

    ACTRESS
    Amy Adams, Arrival
    Isabelle Huppert, Elle
    Natalie Portman, Jackie
    Emma Stone, La La Land
    Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

    With a competitive roster of about nine ladies vying for five slots, I’m sticking to the safe list. I would put Emily Blunt in here, and drop Adams because I think the Arrival star keeps coasting on her movie’s success and has yet to be nominated for a performance where she delivers a performance from her soul. I haven’t seen her do that since her fist nod in 2005 for Junebug. I also think Portman could be snubbed if Negga or Bening find themselves in the running. I don’t think the Jackie player is going to do any damage this awards season. I personally didn’t care for the performance because it felt too gimmicky. This is happening a lot with people playing character roles in biopics. And I adore Portman as an actor. Streep lands her 20th nomination easily here, but she won’t win.

    It’s between Emma Stone for being luminous and Huppert for being a sustained, complexity of emotions. My money is on Huppert- IF she gets the nomination. She swept the major film critics and also won the Drama Globe for best actress. That’s a lot of collateral that even a SAG or BAFTA won’t stop. Even if she’s not in the headlines, her campaigns alone are helping her. I think Stone wins the SAG though; BAFTA I’m not sure, but at this point it seems Emma is going in to the Oscars a small favorite. But with a race this open for votes to be scattered, anything can happen.

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
    Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
    Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
    Dev Patel, Lion
    Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

    I went 5/5 for this category last year- insanely dropping Idris Elba for Tom Hardy. It was a case where all six finalists had a case, but somebody had to go. In this year’s instance, the weakest links seem to be Dev Patel and Lucas Hedges- if only based on precursor support. Both are in Best Picture contenders. Both are strong roles. Patel suffered snubbing for Slumdog Millionaire in this category in 2008. Like Lion, he was deemed a leading role trying to squeeze into supporting. Which is why I am almost tempted to drop him and put back Lucas. But I think the surge of passion for Lion plus Patel’s star power will keep him in.

    Hedges suffers from being very young (which is not easy for voters to go for with leading boys; think Jacob Tremblay in Room). Despite a SAG nomination, he hasn’t really shown up. No Globe nomination. No BAFTA nomination. If voters are really into Manchester by the Sea then my cards have failed me here.

    There is also the notion for Hugh Grant – another leading role in a supporting category. But he’s really overdue and he’s hit both Globe, BAFTA and SAG. Which brings me to Aaron Taylor-Johnson. It would be unwise to assume he misses if only because the last time an actor won the Supporting Actor Globe and got no Oscar nod was back in the 70s. Though molds are always breaking. He missed the SAG but BAFTA remembered. If the academy goes for his film, he’s in. The only issue? Michael Shannon upstaging him in many scenes. Could that be an issue?

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Viola Davis, Fences
    Naomie Harris, Moonlight
    Nicole Kidman, Lion
    Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
    Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

    Probably the easiest category to call on Tuesday (though this could have me eating crow). I don’t seen anyone unseating these five women. All have been consistent during the awards season. It’s Viola’s crown to claim so everyone else is just there for the party. I would be worried for Kidman, if only because she seems to always make it thisclose and then drops. But this time she’s not playing a controversial role in an unlikable movie. It’s a Best Picture nominee and she’s radiant in it. Welcome back. Spencer easily will take the acting slot for her movie and she’s a strong representation for it. It’s nice to see such a diverse group of women.

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
    La La Land, Damien Chazelle
    The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthymis Filippou
    Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
    20th Century Women, Mike Mills

    The writing categories are very tough to predict. Again like the director’s branch, it’s an elite group of voters and they like their scripts the way they like them. Expect a surprise with maybe Zootopia in the mix, or Captain Fantastic. Both rely heavily on the dialogue – and especially the former would fit the mold for animated features getting placed here a lot versus best picture. My pick for the wildcard slot is Mike Mill’s 20th Century Women- because it’s a fantastic script with juicy roles for ladies. If they can’t nominate Bening and Gerwig, they can at least pay homage to the writing. I think Jackie is dead in all categories save Actress and some technical venues.

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Arrival, Ted Chiang
    Hidden Figures, Theodore Melfi & Allison Schroeder
    Lion, Luke Davies
    Moonlight, Barry Jenkins
    Nocturnal Animals, Tom Ford

    Going for a pretty solid lineup here – though I am not confident in Hidden Figures at all. For some reason, I think it’s popularity with the public might not radiate with the academy like we think. Fences is literally a copy and paste job and Wilson wrote it over a decade ago before his death. Not much changed with the screenplay. It would be a lazy nomination in my opinion, even though it’s beautiful and powerful storytelling.

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Arrival, Bradford Young
    Hail Caesar! Roger Deakins
    La La Land, Linus Sandgren
    Moonlight, James Laxton
    Silence, Rodrigo Prieto

    I might be taking risks dropping Lion here, but Deakins work is splendid and he’s an academy favorite. Name checking can take it’s toll with these categories.

    COSTUME DESIGN
    The Dressmaker, Marion Boyce & Margot Wilson
    Fantastic Beasts & Where to Find Them, Colleen Atwood
    Florence Foster Jenkins, Consolata Boyle
    Jackie, Madeline Fontaine
    La La Land, Mary Zophres

    One of my favorite tech categories. A lot to choose from. Look out for The Handmaiden to sneak in. I think The Dressmaker pops up because it is, after all- about what the title suggests. Plus who doesn’t love Kate Winslet in these types of roles? Never underestimate Colleen Atwood. She’s the John Williams of modern costuming.

    PRODUCTION DESIGN
    Arrival, Patrice Vermette
    Fantastic Beasts & Where to Find Them, Stuart Craig
    The Handmaiden, Jo Sang-gyeong
    La La Land, David Wasco
    Silence, Dante Ferretti

    Speaking of the John Williams’ of their time, Dante Ferretti is another master in class here. It is 17th Century Japan after all.

    FILM EDITING
    Arrival, Joe Walker
    Hacksaw Ridge, John Gilbert
    Hell or High Water, Jake Roberts
    La La Land, Tom Cross
    Moonlight, Joi McMillion & Nat Sanders

    I think showier editing trumps here, hence no nod for Manchester by the Sea.

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    Arrival
    Captain America: Civil War
    Doctor Strange
    Jungle Book
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    MAKEUP
    A Man Called Ove
    Deadpool
    Florence Foster Jenkins

    ORIGINAL SCORE
    The BFG, John Williams
    Florence Foster Jenkins, Alexandre Desplat
    La La Land, Justin Hurwitz
    Kubo and the Two Strings, Dario Marianelli
    Moonlight, Nicolas Britell

    SONG
    “Audition”, La La Land
    “City of Stars”, La La Land
    “How Far I’ll Go”, Moana
    “Dancing With Your Shadow”, Zootopia
    “I’m Still Here”, Miss Sharon Jones

    SOUND MIXING
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Rogue One
    Sully

    SOUND EDITING
    Arrival
    Deadpool
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Rogue One
    Sully

    ANIMATED FEATURE
    Finding Dory
    Kubo and the Two Strings
    Moana
    The Red Turtle
    Zootopia

    • This topic was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by  Jason Travis.
    • This topic was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by  Jason Travis.
    • This topic was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by  Jason Travis.
    • This topic was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by  Jason Travis.
    • This topic was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by  Jason Travis.
    • This topic was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by  Jason Travis.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1201991985

    ^the only difference is that I have the feeling Fences will be the 9th nominee for BP; otherwise I agree with your predictions completely.

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    Jason Travis
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    #1201991989

    @freeman: Ha thanks! I am still adding more categories but doing them one at a time since the system has been acting glitchy. Don’t want to lose anything 🙂

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    GusCruz
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    #1201992117

    I have talked in the past couple of days to five people over 60 who have seen both LLL and Manchester, and they all liked Manchester better. These people, I remember, also preferred Spotlight to Big Short/Revenant, Crash to Brokeback, Birdman to Boyhood etc. Just an anecdote– for now.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #1201992121

    I will periodically fill these in/change them until Monday night.

    Best Picture
    Arrival
    Fences
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hidden Figures
    Jackie
    La La Land
    Lion
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Silence

    Best Director
    Damien Chazelle – La La Land
    Garth Davis – Lion
    Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
    Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
    Martin Scorsese – Silence

    Best Actor
    Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
    Joel Edgerton – Loving
    Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
    Ryan Gosling – La La Land
    Denzel Washington – Fences

    Best Actress
    Amy Adams – Arrival
    Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
    Ruth Negga – Loving
    Natalie Portman – Jackie
    Emma Stone – La La Land

    Best Sup. Actor
    Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
    Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
    Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
    Dev Patel – Lion
    Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

    Best Sup. Actress
    Viola Davis – Fences
    Naomie Harris – Moonlight
    Nicole Kidman – Lion
    Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
    Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

    Best Original Screenplay
    20th Century Women
    Captain Fantastic
    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Fences
    Lion
    Moonlight
    Nocturnal Animals
    Silence

    Best Foreign Language Film
    Land of Mine
    My Life as a Zucchini
    Paradise
    The Salesman
    Toni Erdmann

    Best Documentary Feature
    13th
    Cameraperson
    The Eagle Huntress
    I Am Not Your Negro
    Life, Animated

    Best Original Score
    The BFG
    La La Land
    Moana
    Moonlight
    Nocturnal Animals

    Best Original Song
    “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land
    “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
    “City of Stars” – La La Land
    “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
    “I See Victory” – Hidden Figures

    Best Sound Editing
    Arrival
    Deepwater Horizon
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Sully

    Best Sound Mixing
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    The Jungle Book
    La La Land
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    Best Animated Feature
    Kubo and the Two Strings
    The Little Prince
    Moana
    The Red Turtle
    Zootopia

    Best Cinematography
    Arrival
    La La Land
    Live by Night
    Moonlight
    Silence

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    Florence Foster Jenkins
    Star Trek Beyond
    Suicide Squad

    Best Production Design
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Jackie
    La La Land
    Live by Night
    Silence

    Best Costume Design
    Allied
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Florence Foster Jenkins
    Jackie
    La La Land

    Best Film Editing
    Arrival
    Fences
    La La Land
    Moonlight
    Silence

    Best Visual Effects
    Arrival
    Doctor Strange
    The Jungle Book
    Kubo and the Two Strings (YOLO)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

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    Cédric Léria
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    #1201992125

    Best Picture

    La la land

    Manchester by the sea

    Moonlight

    Arrival

    Hell or High water

    Jackie

    Hacksaw Ridge

    Lion

    The lobster

     

    Best Director

    Damian Chazelle

    Barry Jenkins

    Mel Gibson

    Kenneth Lonergan

    Denis villeneuve

     

    Best Actor

    Casey Affleck

    Andrew Garfield

    Ryan Gosling

    Jake Gyllenhaal

    Viggo Mortensen

     

    Best Actress

    Amy adams

    Isabelle Huppert

    Ruth Negga

    Natalie Portman

    Emma Stone

     

    Best Supporting Actor

    Mahershala Ali

    Jeff Bridges

    Ben Foster

    Aaron-taylor Johnson

    Dev Patel

     

    Best Supporting Actress

    Viola Davis

    Naomie Harris

    Nicole Kidman

    Octavia Spencer

    Michelle Williams

     

    Best Original Screenplay

    Hell or high water

    La la land

    The Lobster

    Jackie

    Manchester by the sea

     

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Arrival

    Hidden Figures

    Moonlight

    Nocturnal Animals

    Lion

     

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    Nikster
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    #1201992180

    I think I’m sticking with these:

     

    Best Picture 

    La La Land

    Moonlight

    Manchester by the Sea

    Arrival

    Hacksaw Ridge

     

    Best Director

    Damien Chazelle, La La Land

    Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

    Kenneth Lonnergan, Manchester by the Sea

    Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

    Martin Scorsese, Silence

     

    Best Actress

    Emma Stone, La La Land

    Isabelle Huppert, Elle 

    Natalie Portman, Jackie

    Amy Adams, Arrival

    Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

     

    Best Actor

    Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

    Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

    Ryan Gosling, La La Land

    Denzel Washington, Fences

    Joel Edgerton, Loving 

     

    Best Supporting Actress

    Viola Davis, Fences

    Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

    Nicole Kidman, Lion

    Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

    Naomi Harris, Moonlight

     

    Best Supporting Actor

    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

    Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

    Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

    Dev Patel, Lion

    Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

     

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Moonlight

    Arrival

    Fences

    Hidden Figures

    Hacksaw Ridge

     

    Best Original Screenplay

    La La Land

    Manchester by the Sea

    Hell or High Water

    The Lobster

    Zootopia

     

    Best Cinematography

    La La Land

    Moonlight

    Arrival

    Nocturnal Animals

    Hacksaw Ridge

     

    Best Costume Design

    La La Land

    Jackie

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    Florence Foster Jenkins

    Silence

     

    Best Film Editing

    La La Land

    Moonlight

    Hacksaw Ridge

    Arrival

    Manchester by the Sea

     

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Deadpool

    Florence Foster Jenkins

    Suicide Squad

     

    Best Production Design

    La La Land

    Arrival

    Jackie

    Hidden Figures

    Silence

     

    Best Score

    La La Land

    Moonlight

    Lion

    Nocturnal Animals

    Florence Foster Jenkins

     

    Best Song

    City of Stars, La La Land

    Audition (The Fools Who Dream), La La Land

    How Far I’ll Go, Moana

    Drive It Like You Stole It, Sing Street

    Try Everything, Zootopia

     

    Best Sound Editing

    Hacksaw Ridge

    La La Land

    Arrival

    Silence

    The Jungle Book

     

    Best Sound Mixing

    La La Land

    Hacksaw Ridge

    Arrival

    The Jungle Book

    Silence

     

    Best Visual Effects

    The Jungle Book

    Doctor Strange

    Arrival

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    Passengers

     

    Best Animated Feature

    Zootopia

    Moana

    Kubo and the Two Strings

    Finding Dory

    Sing

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by  Nikster.
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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1201992201

    BEST PICTURE
    La La Land
    Moonlight
    Manchester by the Sea
    Arrival
    Lion
    Hell or High Water
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Fences
    Hidden Figures
    Silence
    Can’t imagine anything else getting in. Maybe Jackie. I still don’t understand what happened to this film.

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Chazelle
    Jenkins
    Lonergan
    McKenzie
    Villeneuve
    I can see Lonergan missing. Davis, Scorsese, Gibson are the only other options.

    BEST ACTOR
    Affleck
    Gosling
    Washington
    Mortensen
    Garfield
    I’d be shocked, SHOCKED if this isn’t the final 5. Only because of BAFTA Gyllenhaal seems to be the only other option. I think Edgerton and Hanks faded away a long time ago. Biggest shock is if somehow Keaton makes it in for a movie nobody could’ve seen.

    BEST ACTRESS
    Stone
    Portman
    Huppert
    Adams
    Bening
    I had Negga in this week instead of Adams, then Streep, then back to Adams. I think Bening is in, I think Huppert could be snubbed. But those 5 seem the safest along with Streep.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Patel
    Ali
    Grant
    Bridges
    Shannon
    This category is crazy and I think it’s where the craziest things could happen, meaning Grant, Bridges could be snubbed, Shannon is just a gut prediction, Hedges is to me easy to leave out, but anybody could be snubbed (except Ali) and anybody could get in.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Kidman
    Spencer
    Davis
    Williams
    Harris
    Seems like Spencer is the one who could be snubbed, but in favor of who? I just don’t see any other options except Monae and I truly hope Spencer doesn’t get snubbed in her favor. I thought for a while Gerwig could slip in, but how? That’s one forgotten film. Although she has become “somebody” in the industry, so maybe she’s the replacement.

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Manchester
    La La Land
    The Lobster
    Hell or High Water
    Toni Erdmann
    I can imagine Toni Erdmann getting that usual popular foreign movie slot, and in a field that has only 3 locks, those other 2 could come from anywhere. Captain Fanstastic is a logical choice for replacement, Jackie was once thought to be a lock, 20th Century Women could pop up if it didn’t fade away like I think it did.

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Moonlight
    Lion
    Hidden Figures
    Nocturnal Animals
    Arrival
    Even with Wilson as its writer, I still can’t see anything else for Fences but those two acting nods and a mandatory Best Film nod because the field got narrowed down so much. So I’ll leave Nocturnal Animals here. Silence is the only other option to fill the category.

    I’ll do the other categories later…

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    CoryBettel
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    #1201992228

    BEST PICTURE:
    Arrival
    Hell or High Water
    Hidden Figures
    La La Land
    Lion
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    Hacksaw Ridge (if 8)
    Fences (if 9)
    Silence (if 10)

    BEST ACTOR:
    Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
    Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
    Ryan Gosling, La La Land
    Viggo Mortenson, Captain Fantastic
    Denzel Washington, Fences

    BEST ACTRESS:
    Amy Adams, Arrival
    Isabelle Huppert, Elle
    Natalie Portman, Jackie
    Emma Stone, La La Land
    Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
    Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
    Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
    Dev Patel, Lion
    Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    Viola Davis, Fences
    Naomie Harris, Moonlight
    Nicole Kidman, Lion
    Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures’
    Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

    BEST DIRECTOR:
    Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
    Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
    David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
    Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    20th Century Women
    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    The Lobster
    Manchester by the Sea

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    Arrival
    Hidden Figures
    Lion
    Moonlight
    Nocturnal Animals

    BEST EDITING:
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Moonlight
    Silence

    I’ll edit with more later on.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201992289

    My full, final, ranked Oscar predictions are up!

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    Karl Vincent
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    #1201992292

    This year is sooo hard to predict! especially in Director and Acting field.

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    ADouble
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    #1201992321

    Wouldn’t say “final” since I’ll be fiddling with these on and off right up until Tuesday morning, but here’s what I have at the moment. Ranked by likelyhood:

    Best Picture:
    1. La La Land
    2. Manchester by the Sea
    3. Moonlight
    4. Arrival
    5. Hell or High Water
    6. Lion
    7. Hidden Figures
    8. Hacksaw Ridge
    9. Nocturnal Animals
    10. Silence

    Dark Horse: Fences

    Director:
    1. Damian Chazelle, La La Land
    2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
    3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
    4. Denis Villenueve, Arrival
    5. David McKenzie, Hell or High Water

    Dark Horse: Lots of possibilities here. That fifth spot still feels wide open to me and I wouldn’t even be shocked if Arrival misses. There seems to be various levels of support for Tom Ford, Garth Davis, and Mel Gibson, and it would be foolish to ever completely count out Scorsese.

    Actor:
    1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
    2. Denzel Washington, Fences
    3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
    4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
    5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

    Dark Horse: Joel Edgerton, Loving

    Actress:
    1. Emma Stone, La La Land
    2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
    3. Amy Adams, Arrival
    4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
    5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

    Dark Horse: Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures, because part of me thinks that movie will dramatically overperform but it’s not a strong enough feeling to warrant me predicting someone with no precursors

    Supporting Actor:
    1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
    2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
    3. Dev Patel, Lion
    4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
    5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

    Dark Horse: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea. Never been totally sold on the lock status of anyone here other than Ali and Bridges, but there don’t seem to be enough strong contenders to knock guys like Grant and Patel off barring a surprising amount of love for something like Hell or High Water or Silence or Hidden Figures. Shannon is half wishful thinking, half me thinking people watching the film for ATJ will come away more impressed with him and want to pay back the 99 Homes snub.

    Supporting Actress:
    1. Viola Davis, Fences
    2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
    3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
    4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
    5. Nicole Kidman, Lion

    Dark Horse: Yeah, I don’t see one here. This group feels pretty locked in. Maybe Moane in place of Kidman for a The Help style double-nom, but that seems unlikely.

    Original Screenplay:
    1. Manchester by the Sea
    2. La La Land
    3. Hell or High Water
    4. The Lobster
    5. Zootopia

    Dark Horse: Captain Fantastic

    Adapted Screenplay:
    1. Moonlight
    2. Arrival
    3. Lion
    4. Nocturnal Animals
    5. Hidden Figures

    Dark Horse: Silence

    Cinematography:
    1. La La Land
    2. Arrival
    3. Moonlight
    4. Silence
    5. Hail, Caesar!

    Dark Horse: Lion

    Costume Design:
    1. La La Land
    2. Jackie
    3. Florence Foster Jenkins
    4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    5. Hidden Figures

    Dark Horse: I’d say Allied, but there’s lots of strong possibilities here. Feels weird to predict this category without a single movie set 100+ years ago.

    Film Editing:
    1. La La Land
    2. Arrival
    3. Moonlight
    4. Hell or High Water
    5. Hacksaw Ridge

    Dark Horse: Manchester by the Sea for the Spotlight spot

    Makeup:
    1. Deadpool
    2. Star Trek Beyond
    3. A Man Called Ove

    Dark Horse: Suicide Squad

    Production Design:
    1. La La Land
    2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    3. Arrival
    4. Silence
    5. Hail, Caesar!

    Dark Horse: Rogue One

    Score:
    1. La La Land
    2. Lion
    3. The BFG
    4. Nocturnal Animals
    5. Florence Foster Jenkins

    Dark Horse: Moonlight. It’s nice to think that this category could be nothing but newbies for once, especially since Moonlight and Jackie so decidedly deserve to be here but there’s always going to be a certain amount of name-checking in this category. Sticking with Williams and Desplat for those spots at the moment, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Thomas Newman pop up here too.

    Song:
    1. “City of Stars”, La La Land
    2. “How Far I’ll Go”, Moana
    3. “Audition”, La La Land
    4. “Runnin”, Hidden Figures
    5. “I’m Still Here”, Miss Sharon Jones

    Dark Horse: Pretty much everything on the shortlist is a dark horse honestly. This category is always a crapshoot and the only real question is which totally out of left field nomination we’ll get. “Angel by the Wings” and “The Empty Chair” both seem like possibilites, but I’ll stick with Miss Sharon Jones for the moment as it gives me some strong Glen Campbell vibes.

    Sound Editing:
    1. Arrival
    2. Hacksaw Ridge
    3. Deepwater Horizon
    4. Rogue One
    5. Sully

    Dark Horse: Deadpool

    Sound Mixing:
    1. La La Land
    2. Hacksaw Ridge
    3. Arrival
    4. Rogue One
    5. The Jungle Book

    Dark Horse: Deepwater Horizon

    Visual Effects:
    1. The Jungle Book
    2. Arrival
    3. Rogue One
    4. Doctor Strange
    5. Deepwater Horizon

    Dark Horse: Captain America: Civil War

    Animated Feature:
    1. Zootopia
    2. Kubo and the Two Strings
    3. Moana
    4. My Life as a Zucchini
    5. The Red Turtle

    Dark Horse: Finding Dory

    ReplyCopy URL
    PJ Edwards
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201992333

    Here are my final predictions

    Took some risks but whatever

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    Eduardo Galhardo
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 14th, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201992355

    My final predictions are:

    Best Picture
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    Hidden Figures
    La La Land
    Lion
    Loving
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight

    Best Director
    Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
    Damien Chazelle – La La Land
    David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water
    Dennis Villeneuve – Arrival
    Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

    Best Actor
    Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
    Denzel Washington – Fences
    Joel Edgerton – Loving
    Ryan Gosling – La La Land
    Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

    Best Actress
    Emma Stone – La La Land
    Isabelle Huppert – Elle
    Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
    Natalie Portman – Jackie
    Ruth Negga – Loving

    Best Sup. Actor
    Aaron Taylor Johnson – Nocturnal Animals
    Dev Patel – Lion
    Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
    Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
    Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

    Best Sup. Actress
    Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
    Naomie Harris – Moonlight
    Nicole Kidman – Lion
    Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
    Viola Davis – Fences

    Best Original Screenplay
    Captain Fantastic
    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea
    The Lobster

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Fences
    Lion
    Loving
    Moonlight
    Nocturnal Animals

    Best Foreign Language Film
    A Man Called Ove
    Land of Mine
    My Life as a Zucchini
    The Salesman
    Toni Erdmann

    Best Documentary Feature
    13th
    Fire at Sea
    I Am Not Your Negro
    Life, Animated
    OJ Made in America

    Best Original Score
    Jackie
    La La Land
    Lion
    Moonlight
    Nocturnal Animals

    Best Original Song
    “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land
    “City of Stars” – La La Land
    “Dancing with Your Shadow” – Po
    “Drive It Like You Stole It” – Sing Street
    “The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story

    Best Sound Editing
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    The Jungle Book

    Best Sound Mixing
    Doctor Strange
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Sully

    Best Animated Feature
    Kubo and the Two Strings
    Long Way North
    The Red Turtle
    Your Name
    Zootopia

    Best Cinematography
    Arrival
    La La Land
    Lion
    Moonlight
    Nocturnal Animals

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    A Man Called Ove
    Deadpool
    Florence Foster Jenkins

    Best Production Design
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Hail Caesar
    Jackie
    La La Land
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    Best Costume Design
    Florence Foster Jenkins
    Hidden Figures
    Jackie
    La La Land
    Love and Friendship

    Best Film Editing
    Arrival
    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    Manchester By the Sea
    Moonlight

    Best Visual Effects
    Arrival
    Doctor Strange
    The Jungle Book
    Kubo and the Two Strings
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    #MrSunshineMovieDerby

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    AnDres Gtz
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 3rd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201992369

    I have talked in the past couple of days to five people over 60 who have seen both LLL and Manchester, and they all liked Manchester better. These people, I remember, also preferred Spotlight to Big Short/Revenant, Crash to Brokeback, Birdman to Boyhood etc. Just an anecdote– for now.

    Really? I actually did the same and they liked LLL better. Also, I’d say Birdman is more for young people than Boyhood (a more quiet film <in my experience>).

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