Although Argo currently seems like a lock to win Best Picture, nothing is a sure thing at the Oscars.
If Argo is not announced as the Best Picture winner on Sunday, which film do you think will get the top prize?
I’m still not entirely convinced that Argo has it in the bag because of the omission in the all-important Best Director category. The separate guilds may all be in love with Argo, but perhaps the voters that make up the Academy just aren’t as in love with the film as we think.
With that being said, in order for an upset win to happen in the Best Picture category, I think it would have to go to a film nominated for Best Director (Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook). The editing nomination also is important, which knocks out Amour and Beasts. It’s also really hard to ignore David O. Russell’s snub at the DGA this year, so I can’t see Silver Linings Playbook taking it. That leaves Lincoln and Life of Pi, the two films with the most overall nominations. Lincoln has more overall nominations, 3 acting nominations to Pi‘s 0, and is the type of period piece Oscar voters tend to gravitate towards (see The King’s Speech, Braveheart, Gladiator, Shakespeare in Love, Titanic, The English Patient, Schindler’s List, Dances with Wolves, Unforgiven, etc.), while Pi seems to fit in a category of nominees (occasionaly fantasy films) that get a lot of nominations, a handful of technical wins, but no Best Picture win (see Avatar, District 9, Hugo, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Inception, The Fellowship of the Ring, etc.).
By default, Lincoln seems like the film that will get that “concensus” vote that is required with preferential ballots these days. Argo‘s Best Director snub is too hard to ignore. Off to the predictions centre to change my vote for Lincoln to win.
I am fairly convinced ARGO is winning Best Picture, even without the director nod. If I had to pick another film to upset, I would pick SILVER LININGS simply because of the Wienstein factor and love from the acting branch of the Academy.